According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report E420233-005 released on March 1st, production by the E.U. 27 nations will increase by 0.3 percent to 11.000 million metric tons in 2023 compared to the previous calendar year. Net exports (exports minus imports) will increase by 8.6 percent in 2023 to 1.01 million metric tons. Consumption within the E.U. will increase by 1.2 percent attaining 10.08 million metric tons.
Among the major producing nations, chicken meat from Poland will decline in 2023 mainly affected by HPAI and by higher energy and fuel costs. Poland will also receive chicken meat from the adjoining Ukraine. Imports were up by 60 percent in 2022 as a result of concessions granted to Ukraine following the invasion by the Russian Federation. Production in Spain will increase mainly due to resumption of travel following COVID restrictions with greater demand from the hotel and restaurant segment of the market. Production of chicken in France will decline due to higher production costs with feed up by 25 percent in 2022. Outbreaks of HPAI have also reduced availability of chicks. Consumption of chicken meat will increase by 1.4 percent in 2023 based on affordability compared to other animal protein. With a population of 447 million, per capita consumption in the E.U. will attain 50 lbs.
In response to demand, imports will increase by 8 percent in 2023 with product from Brazil and Thailand but with reduced quantities from the U.K. Exports in 2023 will drop by 1.5 percent to 1.71 million metric tons following a 5.6 percent decline in exports from 2021 to 2022. The E.U. will record reduced shipments to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ghana imposed restrictions on E.U. nations based on HPAI and the availability of foreign exchange. Due to higher cost of production, the E.U. is less competitive compared to Brazil or the U.S.
There will be ongoing concern over HPAI strain H5N1 in 2023 with significant outbreaks recorded during 2022 in France, Netherlands, Italy and Poland. France will implement a vaccination program in the current year with limited vaccination in other nations depending on exposure and farming programs.