Each year turkey producers attempt to quantify demand for turkeys in anticipation of the Thanksgiving and Christmas period in order to determine the relative and total volumes of hen and tom placements. The current year has been like no other due to the impact of COVID-19 and the consequential effect on preferences and buying power.
On November 19th the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an advisory against family gatherings requiring travel or multigenerational or multifamily participation, for fear of increasing the rapidly escalating incidence rate especially in the midwest, southwest and northern-tier states. Although placements of poults is lower in 2020 compared to previous years due to sharply lower earnings in 2019, predictions for the relative numbers of toms and hens to be sold will be influenced by public response to COVID. Smaller family gatherings suggest hen turkeys of reduced size or in many cases substitution will occur with serving of roast chicken or only ham for the traditional meal.
It is significant that Meijer has slashed the price of store-brand birds to 39 cents per pound from mid-November through Thanksgiving. Frozen branded turkeys are offered at prices from 79 cents to 99 cents per pound. Lynette Ackley, Vice President of Fresh for Meijer stated, “This year certainly has not been easy causing numerous disruptions to birthday celebrations, milestone occasions and family gatherings.” She added, “As we head into the holiday 
season we wanted to make sure our time-honored Thanksgiving tradition of offering birds at an incredibly low price continued for our customers.” As stock of frozen toms increases many chains will offer loss leader prices to move inventory.
Many supermarkets and restaurants chains that have been impacted by COVID restrictions are offering pre-prepared family meals with a roasted hen turkey presented with the “fixings” to feed up to six diners.
Stock levels will be carefully monitored and will determine future placing of hen and tom poults as the industry moves through the first quarter of 2021. Restoration of profitability or in the case of some companies, achieving a “less bad” situation may well be reversed. Following the situation in 2020, supply may have to be further reduced to balance demand in an economy that has yet to recover from the impact of COVID-19 and in a market with available protein in abundance. For the processing week ended November 14th the national average frozen hen wholesale price declined 6.8 cents per lb. to 106 cents per lb. compared to the previous week. In contrast fresh hens retained their value at 132 cents per lb. Consistent with seasonal trends, cold storage at selected centers decreased by 41 percent from November 1st to November 16th but accumulation of stock may be occurring at the retail level.