According to the Foreign Agricultural Service Global Market Analysis issued in December, China has tripled soybean import commitments for the 2020-2021market year compared to the previous period. For the 2017/2018 market year, China purchased slightly more than 17 million metric tons of soybeans. In contrast during the 2018/2019 market year, China did not purchase any soybeans from the U.S. as a result of the trade war initiated by the outgoing Administration.
For the 2019/2020 market year, 17 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were exported with China receiving 7 million metric tons after the signing of the January 2020 Phase-One Trade Agreement. For the 2020-2021 market year China has imported 22 million metric tons as of the end of November 2020. An additional quantity of 8 million metric tons was exported to the EU and other nations. USDA project market year 2020/2021 commitments by China to attain 30 million metric tons. It is recognized that fluctuation in exchange rates, prices quoted by competitors of the U.S., weather conditions, domestic demand in China and political considerations will modify the actual quantum of exports.
The greater the proportion of the U.S. soy crop exported the higher will be the domestic price of soybean meal and hence cost of production.