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Recent releases by the Department of Agriculture in China confirm outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in numerous provinces.  Rabobank recently estimated that the sow herd fell between three to five percent over the period December 2020 through February 2021.  In 2019, African swine fever reduced the hog herd by as much as 30 percent resulting in a sharp increase in imports of frozen and chilled pork, a drawdown of inventory and a significant expansion in broiler production.

Despite the risk of infection, large integrators have erected multilevel mega-farms that are considered less likely to be infected by ASF due to extreme levels of biosecurity in comparison to smaller family-operated units.

As yet there is no effective vaccine although it is understood that gene-deleted candidates are under evaluation.  There is confusion over whether a variant strain of ASF that is considerably less pathogenic than the virus that circulated from 2018 onwards has evolved by mutation or alternatively that the isolates may be a manifestation of an illegal gene-deleted vaccine or even a combination of these factors.

In any event the regular over-optimistic predictions by government officials that the ASF outbreak is controlled appear to fall under the Yogi Berra truism "it ain't over till it's over".