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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Rabobank Reviews Global Impact of ASF

03/25/2021

In an update on African swine fever (ASF), Justin Sherrard, Protein Analyst with Rabobank examined the effect of the infection on pork markets. The major uncertainty is the extent to which China can control the infection.  Despite optimistic predictions from the Ministry of Agriculture, outbreaks continue.  In the absence of a widely deployed effective and safe vaccine, China will not be able to control the infection.  Notwithstanding the risks and consequences of ASF, the pork industry in China is undergoing a massive restructuring moving from small family-operated farms to investment in mega-units using multi-level breeding and growing facilities.

 

Sherrard questions whether Germany will be able to resume exporting pork to China following outbreaks of ASF in wild boars.  To date the infection has not been diagnosed in any commercial or even small-scale family unit.  China imposed a blanket embargo on the nation, contrary to the OIE principle of regionalization, disrupting the entire supply chain from production through processing.  ASF was the second impact on pork production in Germany in 2020 with COVID responsible for plant closings during the second quarter.

 

Rabobank also note the rise in feed prices in China and question whether this factor will influence production volume and prices.

 

As China manages to suppress ASF either through a combination of biosecurity and legal or possibly clandestine vaccination, imports will decline having an effect on production and prices in the U.S., Brazil, and the EU nations exporting pork.


 
Copyright © 2021 Simon M. Shane