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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Poultry Meat Projection

10/19/2021

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for October 2021.

 

On October 18th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2020 (actual), a projection for 2021 and a forecast for 2022.

 

Broiler RTC production in 2021 updated from the September 2021 report reflected a 0.3 percent increase over 2020 to 20.329 million metric tons RTC (44,724 million lbs.). Per capita consumption in 2021 will be 0.2 percent lower compared to 2020 at 43.6 kg. (96.0 lbs.). Exports should represent 16.8 percent of RTC production in 2021 attaining 3.405 million metric tons (7,491 million lbs.) representing both RTC and feet. The projection for 2022 is for 20.564 million metric tons (45,240 million lbs.) with a per capita consumption of 44.0 kg (96.8 lbs.) and exports of 3.368 million metric tons (7,410 million lbs.).

 

Turkey production for 2021 compared to 2020 was reduced by 2.3 percent to 2.550 million metric tons RTC, (5,609 million lbs.). Per capita consumption is projected at 7.0 kg. (15.4 lb.) in 2021, 0.2 kg lower than 2020 despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2021 is expected to attain to 0.254 million metric tons (558 million lbs.). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2021 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

The USDA provided a long-term forecast for the turkey industry in 2022 comprising annual production of 2.589 million metric tons (5,696 million lbs.) with consumption of 7.1 kg (15.5 lbs.) per capita.

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations. Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2020

(actual)

2021

(forecast)

2022

(projection)

Difference %

2020 to 2021

Broilers

 

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

20.265

20.329

20.564

+0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

43.7

43.6

44.0

        -0.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.350

3.405

3.368

+1.6

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.8

16.4

        +1.8

 

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.610

2.550

2.589

-2.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.2

7.0

7.1

-2.8

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.260

0.254

0.255

-2.3

Proportion of production (%)

10.0

10.0

        9.8

0

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released October 18th 2020

 

The projection takes into account forecast exports to 2nd ranked China with imports of 512,587 metric tons of chicken products including feet during 2020 valued at $732 million. During the first eight months of 2021 China imported 293,220 metric tons of chicken products (feet, leg quarters and edible giblets) valued at $541 million. Average unit price for broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding China attained $1,095 per metric ton for the first eight months of 2021. Unit value to China was $1,845 per metric ton suggesting a high proportion of feet shipped.

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 
Copyright © 2021 Simon M. Shane