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Email Content: Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

African Swine Fever Moderating in China


Since the first outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Liaoning Province in early August 2018, outbreaks have been diagnosed in thirty-two provinces and special administrative regions.  The Year to date the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has recorded eleven outbreaks of African swine fever in eight provinces. The fact that only a claimed two thousand hogs were culled suggests that cases have occurred among backyard and subsistence units that will continue as reservoirs of infection.  Large commercial farms obviously have deployed adequate biosecurity that currently is the only effective prevention measure in the absence of an effective vaccine. 


The reliability of official statistics in China is always questionable, but it may be inferred from the sharply lower prices of piglets and processed pork that adequate supplies are available.  This contrasts to the situation in 2018 and 2019 with as many as 25 percent of growing hogs succumbing to ASF.  A fall in pork imports is also an indication of adequacy of supply.  This has allowed China to place embargoes on nations such as Germany that have reported ASF to the World Organization of Animal Health.


The implication of a recovery from ASF in the hog industry in China will be a reduction in imports of both pork and chicken meat to the disadvantage of Brazil and the U.S.


Copyright © 2022 Simon M. Shane