Share via Email


* Email To: (Separate multiple addresses with a semicolon)
* Your Name:
* Email From: (Your IP Address is 18.204.56.97)
* Email Subject: (personalize your subject)


Email Content:
Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for September 2022.

09/16/2022

On September 16th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.

 

Compared to 2021, broiler RTC production in 2022 was increased 1.3 percent in the September report to 45,474 million lbs. RTC (20.670 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 1.2 percent higher compared to 2021 at 97.7 lbs. (44.4 kg.). Exports will represent 15.8 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,168 million lbs. (3.258 million metric tons) comprising both RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.

 

The projection for 2023 is for 45,900 million lbs. (20.864 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 98.2 lbs. (44.6 kg.) and exports of 7,370 million lbs. (3.350 million metric tons).

 

Turkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be 6.2 percent lower at 5,214 million lbs. (2.369 million metric tons) RTC. The September projection of per capita consumption in 2022 was 4.6 percent lower than in 2021 at 14.6 lbs. (6.6 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 25.9 percent to 406 million lbs. (0.185 million metric tons) from 2021. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.

 

The September USDA forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprised annual production of 5,630 million lbs. (2.559 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.7 lbs. (7.1 kg.) per capita.

 

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Parameter

2021

(actual)

2022

(update)

Difference % 2021

to 2022

2023

(projection)

Broilers

Production (million lbs.)

44,898

45,474

+1.3

45,900

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

96.5

97.7

+1.2

98.2

Exports (million lbs.)

7,355

7,168

-2.5

7,370

Proportion of production (%)

16.4

15.8

-3.7

16.1

Turkeys

Production (million lbs.)

5,558

5,214

-6.2

5,630

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

15.3

14.6

-4.6

15.7

Exports (million lbs.)

548

 406

-25.9

410

Proportion of production (%)

 9.9

7.8

-21.2

7.3

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 16th 2022

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

 

The projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For the first seven months of 2022 China imported 369,623 tons of broiler products valued at $662 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,791 per ton.

 

Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys and exports posted in each edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.


 
Copyright © 2022 Simon M. Shane