Poultry Industry News, Comments & More

Turkey Week

09/10/2021

Weekly Turkey Production and Prices September 10th 2021

Poult Production and Placement:

The August 13th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 26.8 million eggs in incubators on August 1st 2021 (26.4 million eggs on July 1st 2021) and down 1.2 percent (0.3 million eggs) from August 1st 2020.

 

A total of 22.6 million poults were hatched during July 2021 (21.7 million in June 2021), representing a decrease of 5.0 percent (1.2 million poults) from July 2020.

 

A total of 22.3 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in July 2021, (20.9 million in June 2021), 3.0 percent (0.7 million poults) less than July 2020. This suggests disposal of 270,000 poults during the month (0.8 million in June 2021). Placements of hen and tom poults were relatively even for the month.

 

For the twelve-month period August 2020 through July 2021 inclusive, 266.1 million poults were hatched and 246.0 million were placed. This suggests disposal of 20.1 million poults. Assuming the proportion of placements corresponded to the respective numbers of toms and hens reared year to date (55:45), for the 12-month period, 7.8 percent of all poults or 6.6 percent of tom poults (8.8 million) and 9.0 percent of hen poults (12.0 million) were not reared. This is an unsubstantiated estimate with a fluctuating demand for processed toms and hens in a post-COVID affected market. (See relative numbers of hen and tom poults processed under Production Data below).

 

To be updated in mid-September 2021 following release of monthly USDA data

 

Turkey Production:

 

The September 10th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Market News Report (Vol. 68: No.36) confirmed the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

  • For the processing week ending September 4th 2021, 1.762 million young hens were slaughtered during the processing week at a live weight of 16.4 lbs. (last week 1.780 million hens at 16.3 lbs.). During the corresponding week in 2020, 1.891 million hens were processed, 7.3 percent less than during the most recent week in 2021. Ready-to-cook (RTC) hen weight for the week attained 23.2 million lbs. (10,561 metric tons), 8.7 percent less than in the corresponding processing week of 2020. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5. In 2021 RTC hen production has attained 809.9 million lbs. (368,140 metric tons), 0.7 percent less than for YTD 2020.
  • For the processing week ending September 4th 2021, 1.957 million toms were slaughtered at 43.4 lbs., compared to 2.166 million toms processed during the previous week at 42.4 lbs. For the corresponding week in 2020, 2.156 million toms were processed, 10.2 percent more than in the most recent week in 2021. Ready-to-cook tom weight for the week attained 67.6 million lbs. (30,727 metric tons), 10.2 percent less than the corresponding processing week in 2020. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. In 2021 RTC tom product has attained 2,642 million lbs. (1,200,743 metric tons), 8.7 percent less than for YTD 2020.
  • The National average frozen hen price during the past week was presumed to be 129.0 cents per lb., unchanged from the previous week and up approximately 37 cents per lb. from the three-year average. The following prices rounded to nearest cent were documented for domestic and export trading on September 10 2021:-

 

Product

cents per lb.

Change from previous Week (%)

Frozen hens

1301

+0.8

Frozen toms

130

+1.6

Fresh hens

1491

+1.4

Fresh toms

149

Unchanged

Breasts 4.0-6.5 lb. (frozen)

155

-10.9

Breasts (B/S) tom

299

+4.2

Drums (toms for export)

109

No new quotation

Wings (V-cut tom)

96

Unchanged

Wings (V-cut hens)

210

-12.5

Thigh Meat (frozen for export)

200

+14.9

Mechanically Separated (export)

49

No new quotation

  1. Presumed value

 

Inventories:

On September 6th 2021 cold storage holdings at selected centers amounted to 69,880 lbs., 0.1 percent less than the inventory of 69,992 lbs. on September 1st 2021.

The August 23rd 2021 edition of the USDA Cold Storage Report issued monthly, documented a total turkey stock of 436.4 million lbs. (198,363 metric tons) on July 31st 2021, equivalent to 4.8 weeks of current production and down 11.3 percent compared to the inventory on July 31st 2020. The July 31st value was 7.5 percent above the June 30th 2021 level. This increase is consistent with season and denotes an imbalance between supply and the combination of domestic demand and exports.

 

The Whole Turkey category of 263.1 million lbs. representing 60.3 percent of total storage of 436.4 million lbs. on July 31st 2021 was 16.5 percent lower than the inventory on July 31st 2020. Tom carcasses in storage increased by 3.7 percent from July 31st 2020 to 161.7 million lbs. on July 31st 2021. Hen carcasses in storage decreased by 7.7 percent from July 31st 2020 to 101.4 million lbs. on July 31st 2021. Hen carcasses increased 20.3 percent during July.

Breasts in storage declined by 34.7 percent from July 31st 2020 to 57.8 million lbs. on July 31st 2021.

 

The “Other” and “Unclassified” categories collectively amounted to 103.1 million lbs. or 23.6 percent of inventory on July 31st 2021. The magnitude of these two non-specified categories suggests that the USDA should attempt to classify product more accurately as to specific product.

 

July 2021 Production

According to the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on August 24th 2021 covering, July 2021 comprising 23 working days:-

  • During July 17.8 million young turkeys were processed. (8.8 percent less than in July 2020);
  • Total live weight attained 570.4 million lbs. (9.5 percent less than July 2020);
  • Average live weight was 32.0 lbs. (0.7 percent less than July 2020);
  • RTC attained 455.3 million lbs. (down 9.4 percent from July 2020) with a yield of 79.8 percent.
  • The proportion of frozen product in July 2021 attained 40.0 percent of total RTC produced.
  • In July 2021 ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.37 percent of live weight, (0.31 in July 2020). During July 2021, 1.2 percent of RTC weight was condemned (1.3 percent in July 2020)

(To be updated in late September with data for August)

 

Comments:

Please review comments in the Weekly Broiler Report and the year-to-date export data under the Statistics Tab.

 

The USMCA has been in effect since July 1st 2020. The U.S. turkey industry shipped 173,544 metric tons to Mexico or 62.6 percent of all turkey exports, valued at $389 million during 2018. In 2019 Mexico received 176,789 metric tons representing 60.9 percent of turkey exports valued at $427 million. Thailand commenced importing raw turkey effective January 1st 2021 after lifting an avian influenza embargo that was placed on the U.S. allowing only cooked turkey in 2015. During 2020 Mexico imported 166,771 metric tons of turkey products valued at $379 million with a unit value of $2,273 per metric ton. During 2020 China imported 17,260 metric tons of turkey products with a value of $28.7 million representing a unit value of $1,663 per metric ton.

 

For the first seven months of 2021 exports of turkey products attained 145,104 metric tons valued at $357 million up 2.6 percent in volume and 9.9 percent in value compared to 2020. Unit value increased by 7.1 percent from January-July 2021 to $2,460 per metric ton over the corresponding seven months in 2020 ($2,297).


 
Copyright © 2021 Simon M. Shane