Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Turkey Month

05/25/2022

Chick-NewsMonthly Turkey Production and Prices, April 25th 2022

 

Poult Production and Placement:

The May 12th 2022 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 26.33 million eggs in incubators on May 1st 2022 compared to 25.42 million eggs on May 1st 2021* The May set was down 3.5 percent (0.90 million eggs) from May 2021 and 5.4 percent down from the previous month of April 2022.

 

A total of 22.24 million poults were hatched during April 2022 compared to 22.60 million in April 2021*. The April 2022 hatch was down 7.6 percent (1.8 million poults) from the previous month of March 2022.

 

A total of 20.87 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in April 2022, compared to 21.62 million in April 2021*. The April placement was 3.5 percent, (0.75 million poults) less than the month of April 2021. This data suggests disposal of 1.37 million poults during the month, therefore approximately 6.2 percent of the April 2022 hatch was not placed.

 

For the twelve-month period May 2021 through April 2022 inclusive, 267.69 million poults were hatched and 248.61 million were placed. This suggests disposal of 19.08 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 7.1 percent of all poults hatched. 

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

 

Turkey Production:

Chick-News

 

The May 20th edition of the USDA Turkey Market News Report confirmed the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

 

  • For the processing week ending May 14th 2022, 1.761 million hens were processed at 17.2 lbs. live. This was 21.3 percent more than the 1.452 hens processed during the corresponding week in April 2022 and almost the same as the 1.762 million processed during the corresponding week in May 2021. Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week was 24.411 million lbs. (11,096 metric tons). This quantity was 30.5 percent more than the corresponding week in April 2022 and 1.2 percent less than the 24.780 million lbs. during the corresponding week in May 2021. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2022 to date hen production attained 430.91 million lbs. (195,867 metric tons). This quantity is 0.8 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2021.
  • For the processing week ending May 14th 2022, 1.905 million toms were processed at 43.1 lbs. live. This was 3.9 percent more than the 1.834 toms processed during the corresponding week in April 2022 and 0.6 percent more than the 1.893 million during the corresponding week in May 2021. Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week was 66.095 million lbs. (30,043 metric tons). This quantity was 7.1 percent more than the corresponding week in April 2022 and 6.9 percent less than the 70.997 million lbs. during the corresponding week in May 2021. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2022 to date tom production attained 1,450 million lbs. (663,600 metric tons). This quantity is 3.4 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2021.


 

Poultry Meat Projection

05/22/2022

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for May 2022.

Chick-News

On May 18th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), a projection for 2022 and a forecast for 2023.

 

Broiler RTC production in 2022 updated from the April 2022 report reflected a 1.2 percent increase over 2021 to 45,419 million lbs. RTC (20.645 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 0.7 percent higher compared to 2021 at 97.2 lbs. (44.2 kg.). Exports will represent 16.2 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,376 million lbs. (3.352 million metric tons) comprising both RTC leg quarters and feet. The forecast for 2023 is for 45,675 million lbs. (20.761 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 97.3 lbs. (44.2 kg.) and exports of 7,465 million lbs. (3.393 million metric tons).

 

Chick-NewsTurkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be reduced by 3.5 percent to 5,359 million lbs. (2.436 million metric tons) RTC. Per capita consumption was lowered 1.3 percent to 15.1 lbs. (6.9 kg.) in 2022, despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 32.4 percent to 372 million lbs. (0.169 million metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

The USDA provided a forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprising annual production of 5,650 million lbs. (2.565 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.7 lbs. (7.1 kg.) per capita.

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations. Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2020

(actual)

2021

(actual)

2022

(projection)

Difference %

2021 to 2022

Broilers

Production (million lbs.)

44,583

44,898

45,419

+1.2

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

95.8

96.5

97.2

+0.7

Exports (million lbs.)

7,637

7,367

7,376

+0.1

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.4

16.2

-1.2

Turkeys

Production (million lbs.)

5,743

5,558

5,359

-3.5

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

15.8

15.3

15.1

-1.3

Exports (million lbs.)

571

550

372

-32.4

Proportion of production (%)

 9.9

9.9

6.9

-30.3

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released May 18th 2022

 

The projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For the first quarter of 2022 China imported 155,897 tons of broiler products valued at $282 million including 67 percent feet at a unit price of $2,158 per ton.

 


 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted monthly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 

U.S. Meat Exports

05/22/2022

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports in January-March 2022.

Chick-News

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet for January-March 2022 attained 951,645 metric tons, 5.5 percent more than during the corresponding months in 2021 (902,250 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 23.3 percent to $1,213 million ($984 million 2021).

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of broiler meat exports (excluding feet). From Q1-2021 to date unit value of leg quarters has risen consistent with international demand. Despite the recent welcome increase in unit price, leg quarters represent a relatively low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

During January-March 2022 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 963,062 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,235 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,283 per metric ton, 16.2 percent higher in unit value than for January-March 2021 ($1,104 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-March 2022 by proportion and unit price for each broiler category compared with the corresponding months in 2021 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 6%; Unit value $1,236 per metric ton ($1,046)
  • Prepared chicken 0%; Unit value $3,571 per metric ton ($3,016)
  • Whole chicken 4%; Unit value $1,133 per metric ton ($1,159) 

 

Chick-NewsThe outbreak of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 onwards coupled with disruptions in chicken production and logistics thereafter due to COVID restrictions, increased demand for protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. This trend is abating as hog production is restored in China and mild overproduction is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports during 2022.

 

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports for January-March 2022 with the first quarter of 2021:-

PRODUCT

January-March

2021

January-March

2022

DIFFERENCE

Broiler Meat & Feet

Volume (metric tons)

902,250

951,645

+49,395 (+5.5%)

Value ($ millions)

984

1,213

+229 (+23.2%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,091

1,275

+184 (+16.9%)

Turkey Meat

Volume (metric tons)

59,139

48,730

 -10,409 (-17.6%)

Value ($ millions)

129

163

+34 (+26.4%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

2,181

3,345

+1,164 (+33.4%)

 

COMPARISON OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS FOR JANUARY-MARCH

2020 AND 2021

 

BROILER EXPORTS JANUARY-MARCH 2022

 

Total broiler parts, predominantly leg quarters but including feet, exported during January-March 2022 as compared with 2021 increased by 5.5 percent in volume and 23.2 percent in value. Unit value was 16.9 percent higher at $1,275 per metric ton.

 

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 54.1 percent of shipments during January-March 2022. The top ten importers comprised 70.1 percent of the total volume reflecting increasing concentration among the significant importing nations.

 

During March 2022 volume was 4.3 percent higher to 335,960 metric tons. Value was 17.4 percent higher attributed to a 12.7 percent increase in unit value to $1,303 per metric ton.

 

During January-March 2022 exports of all broiler products to first-ranked (by value) China were 39.6 percent higher by volume at 155,897 metric tons and 51.6 percent higher by value at $282 million compared to January-March 2021. During the first quarter of 2022 feet accounted for 67.0 percent of value (104,760 metric tons) valued at $226 million with a unit price of $ 2,156 per metric ton. Average unit price for all exports to China in January-April 2022 was $1,808 per ton compared with $1,275 for all exports, or exports excluding China of $1,170, demonstrating the weighting of feet on export value. Other broiler products exported to China during the quarter included legs 27.0 percent at a unit price of $943 per ton; edible giblets 5.5 percent at $1,500 per ton and 2.9 percent wings at $1,530 per ton.


 

Broiler Month

04/25/2022

Chick-NewsMonthly Broiler Production and Prices, April 25th 2022.

 

Chick Placements.

According to weekly Broiler Hatchery Reports covering four weeks ending on March 5th through March 26th a total of 961.80 million eggs were set, 0.5 percent more than the corresponding weeks in 2021. For the same period 746.01 million chicks were placed within one percent of the corresponding period in 2021.

 

A total of 176.3 million day-old chicks were placed among the 19 major broiler-producing states during the week ending March 19th. Total chick placements for the U.S. amounted to 185.7 million, 0.1 percent (0.2 million chicks) more than the week ending February 19th. Claimed average hatchability for the period approximated eighty percent for eggs set three weeks earlier Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents 1.9 million chicks placed per week with the current range of weekly settings.

 

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 8th 2022 through March 26th 2022 amounted to 2.23 billion chicks, less than one percent from the corresponding period in 2021.

 

Low chick placement during the previous seven months is attributed to setting a proportion of hatching eggs with depressed fertility that were derived from high-yield breed combinations used by some integrators for heavy broilers. Additional breeder flocks were placed to compensate for reduced fertility and their contribution is reflected in broilers to be harvested during the second quarter of 2022.

 

Chick-NewsBroiler Production

 

According to the April 22nd USDA Broiler Market News Report for the processing week ending April 16th 2022, 160.97 million broilers were processed at 6.26 lbs. live. This was 1.6 percent less than the 163.6 broilers processed during the corresponding week in March 2022 and 0.9 percent less than the 162.53 million processed during the corresponding week in April 2021.Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week was 765.82 million lbs. (348,100 metric tons). This was 2.6 percent less than the 785.91 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in March 2022 and 2.6 percent less than the 786.86 million lbs. during the corresponding week in April 2021. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2022 to date RTC broiler production attained 12.564 million lbs. (5.711 million metric tons). This quantity is 1.4 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2021.

 

Broiler Price

 

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price on April 22nd was up 11.7 cents per lb. compared to March 25th to 167.4 cents per lb., and compared to 148.0 cents per lb. cents per lb. average during March and 125.7 cents per lb. during February 2022 and 82.0 cents per lb. for the three-year average.

 

The industry is still impacted by contraction in the food service segment following imposition of COVID-19 restrictions, but with universities and schools having reopened in most areas following a decline in the incidence rate of the Omicron variant. Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets.

 

The USDA Southern States (SS) benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) as documented in the Broiler Market News Reports April 22nd are tabulated with a comparison with the previous month:-

Product

USDA SS1. April 22nd

Cents/lb.

USDA SS1. March 25th

Cents/lb.

Difference.

%

Whole Index

78

65

+20.0

Tenderloins

301

290

+3.8

B/S Breast

310

285

+8.8

Whole Breasts

129

106

+21.7

B/S Thighs

173

152

+13.8

Whole Thighs

68

50

+36.0

Drumsticks

45

39

+15.3

Leg Quarters

45

38

+18.4

Wings (cut)

202

211

-4.5

  1. USDA Southern States prices

 

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending April 22nd and YTD 2022 were:-

Live Weight Range (lbs.)

<4.25

4.26-6.25

6.26-7.25

>7.76

Proportion past week (%)

16

30

30

24

Change from 2020 YTD (%)

-3

+1

+4

+1

 

During the week ending March 25th broilers for QSR and food service (live, 3.6 lb. to 4.3 lb.) represented 25 percent of processed volume.

 

On April 18th 2022 cold storage holdings of processed poultry other than chicken at selected centers amounted to 62,164 lbs. 1.4 percent less than the inventory of 63,050 lbs. on March 21st 2022.

 

According to the April 25th 2022 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks as of March 31st 2022 compared to March 31st 2021 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

 

  • Total Chicken category attained 777.45 million lbs. (353,388 metric tons) corresponding to an average of 1.4 weeks production based on average 2022 weekly RTC output. The March 31st 2022 inventory was up 5.1 percent compared to 739.83 million lbs. (336,285 metric tons) on March 31st 2021
  • Leg Quarters were up by 73.7 percent to 100.58 million lbs. consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was up 5.2 percent from February 28th Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal chicken export product to a number of nations but only in minimal quantities to China.
  • The Breasts and Breast Meat category was down 17.8 percent from March 31st 2021 to 167.53 million lbs. indicating robust domestic demand from retail and partial recovery of the food service sector. March 31st stocks were 3.8 percent lower than February 28th The QSRs are actively promoting chicken sandwiches.
  • Wings showed a 78.5 percent increase from March 31st 2021, contributing to a stock of 65.79 million lbs. This category was 2.7 percent lower than on February 28th The increase in stock over the past year denotes lower demand attributed to “wing fatigue” in addition to competition from “boneless wings” Increased consumption over the Super Bowl weekend was inadequate to reduce volume in storage hence the disproportionate reduction in unit price in recent weeks.
  • Paws and Feet were 1.2 percent lower on March 31st 2022 to 34.13 million lbs. compared to March 31st 2021 and inventory was 1.7 percent higher than February 28th Prior to April 2020 it is evident that approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland. Data released by the USAPEEC confirmed that for the month of November 2021 paws represented 91.5 percent of U.S. broiler exports to China valued at $90.2 million.
  • It is noted that the Other category comprising 316.59 million lbs. was up 4.3 percent from March 31st 2021 but represented a significant 40.7 percent of inventory on March 31st The high proportion in the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

 

March 2022 Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on April 25th covering March 2022 comprised 23 working days. The following values were documented for the month:-

 

  • A total of 823.94 million broilers were processed, down 1.0 percent from March 2021;
  • Total live weight was 5.292 billion lbs., down 0.5 percent from March 2021;
  • Unit live weight was 6.42 lbs., up 0.5 percent from March 2021.
  • RTC attained 3.99 billion lbs., down 0.4 percent from March 2021.
  • WOG yield of 75.5 percent compared to 75.4 percent during March 2021.
  • The proportion marketed as chilled in March 2022 comprised 93.5 percent of RTC output.
  • Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.20 percent during March 2022 compared to 0.19 percent in March 2021.
  • Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.51 percent during March 2022 compared to 0.52 percent in March 2021.

 

Comments

For 2021 exports of broiler parts and feet combined attained a volume of 3,633,624 metric tons (3,574,906 metric tons in 2020) with a value of $4,477 million ($3,557 million in 2020). Unit value increased 23.8 percent from 2020 to $1,232 per metric ton (including feet) from $995 (excluding feet during January-April 2020.).

 

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and U.S. counterpart, the USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease will affect exports from affected states with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China is less predictable given their action regarding E.U. nations in response to African swine fever and avian influenza but as of the present county-wide bans have been imposed. Their reaction to outbreaks will be influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations.

 

Collectively our NAFTA/USMCA neighbors imported broiler products to the value of $869 million during 2018, $901 million in 2019, $864 million in 2020 and $1,175 million in 2021.

 

During 2021 exports of broiler products to China including feet attained 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,877 per metric ton. Shipments to China were offset by losses to Hong Kong with at least half of U.S. imports transshipped to the mainland prior to April 2020.

 

Effective April 22nd total losses due to HPAI amounted to 2.3 million broilers on 11 farms in the states as indicated : DE, (1 case); KY, (1); MD, (1); MN, (2); MO, (1); NC, (3) and NE, (2).


 

U.S. Poultry Meat Production in 2021

03/05/2022

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Summary Report for 2021 released on March 4th covering 2021, documented U.S. production of broilers and turkeys. The following data was tabulated in comparison with 2020:-

 

Broiler Production

  • A total of 9.210 billion broilers were processed, down 0.2 percent from 2020;
  • Total live weight was 59.487 billion lbs., up 0.6 percent from 2020;
  • Unit live weight was 6.46 lbs., up 0.7 percent from 2020;
  • RTC attained 44.900 billion lbs., up 0.7 percent from 2020;
  • WOG yield of 75.47 percent was up 0.2 percent from 2020;
  • The proportion marketed as chilled in 2021 comprised 93.2 percent of RTC output;
  • Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.20 percent during 2021 (119.0 million lbs.) unchanged as a rounded percentage from 2020;
  • Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.50 percent during 2021 (19.7 million lbs.) compared to 0.49 percent in 2020; 

 

Turkey Production

  • During January 2021, 213.9 million young turkeys were processed, 3.3 percent less than in 2020;
  • Total live weight attained 6.91 billion lbs., 3.3 percent less than 2020;
  • Average live weight was 32.29 lbs. <0.1 percent less than 2020;
  • RTC attained 5.52 billion lbs. with a yield of 79.9 percent., down 3.26 percent from 2020;
  •  The proportion of frozen product in 2021 attained 38.5 percent of total RTC produced;
  • In 2021ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.31 percent (21.1 million lbs.) of live weight,  compared to 0.27 in 2020;
  • During 2021, 1.26 percent (70.2 million lbs.) of RTC weight was condemned compared to 1.30 percent in 2020.

 

Pilgrim’s Pride Reports on Q4 and FY 2021

02/09/2022

In a press release dated February 9th Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (PPC) announced results for the 4th Quarter and FY 2021 ending December 26th 2022.      

 

The following table summarizes the results for the period compared with the values for the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year (Values expressed as US$ x 1,000 except EPS)

 

4th Quarter Ending

Dec 26th 2021

Dec. 27th 2020

Difference (%)

Sales:

$4,038,769

$3,117,9829

+29.5

Gross profit:

$352,500

$227,396

+55.0

Operating income:

$55,054

$39,500

+39.3

Pre-tax Income

Net Income

$41,659

$36,754

$9,185

$79

+353.6

-

Diluted earnings per share:

$0.15

-

-

Gross Margin (%)

8.7

7.3

+19.2

Operating Margin (%)

1.4

1.3

+7.7

Profit Margin (%)

0.9

0

-

Long-term Debt:

$3,292,897

$2,404,307

+37.0

12 Months Trailing:

 

 

 

           Return on Assets    (%)

5.3

 

 

           Return on Equity    (%)

-0.2

 

 

           Operating Margin   (%)

5.0

 

 

           Profit Margin          (%)

0

 

 

Total Assets

$8,913,205

$7,474,497

+19.3

Market Capitalization

 

 

 

 

For FY 2021 Pilgrim’s Pride earned $31.0 million on revenue of $14,778 million with a diluted EPS of $0.13.

For FY 2020 Pilgrim’s Pride earned $94.8 million on revenue of $12,091 million with a diluted EPS of $0.38

 

In reviewing the contribution of geographic segments for FY 2021:-
The U.S generated 61 percent of sales and 68 percent of earnings

The E.U. generated 28 percent of sales and 12 percent of earnings

Mexico generated 11 percent of sales and 20 percent of earnings

 

52-Week Range in Share Price:  $20.32 to $29.70 with a 50-day Moving average  $27.99

Market            Close Tuesday 8th February $28.97. Closed Wednesday 9th February, post-release almost unchanged at $28.95

Forward P/E 11.2              Beta1.1

 

In commenting on Q4 and FY 2021 results Fabio Sandri CEO stated, “The Pilgrim’s Pride team was relentless in the face of input cost inflation and volatility, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and a global pandemic. They managed through these challenges to deliver a strong performance in the fourth quarter and the fiscal year.”  He added “By staying focused on our Key Customer strategy, on the safety of our employees and on producing high-quality food products, our diversified portfolio delivered improved results over last year as well as 2019 pre-COVID baselines”.

 

In reviewing the U.S. business Sandri stated “Strong U.S. consumer demand for chicken supported fresh meat pricing throughout 2021, and we expect this pricing environment to continue into the near future with the USDA projecting supply growth of only 1.6% for 2022. Chicken remains a great value relative to the other major proteins, and we continue to grow and improve our portfolio in partnerships with Key Customers and to grow our Prepared Foods business while supporting our differentiated Pilgrim’s® and Just Bare® brands within retail and e-commerce.

 

Sandri noted “Our business in Mexico dealt with elevated feed grain pricing for much of the year but executed well and delivered results surpassing last year with Fresh and Prepared Foods offerings in our Pilgrim’s®, Del Dia® and Alamesa® brands”.

 

In relation to E.U. hog and chicken businesses Sandri explained “Our legacy European businesses faced rising input costs and overall inflation, labor disruptions due to Brexit and very challenging market conditions. Through continued execution of our operational excellence strategy and pricing model actions, we are confident in our legacy UK businesses returning to expected results. At the end of September, we welcomed Pilgrim’s Food Masters with its value-added branded products that strengthened our portfolio in Europe and created a differentiated platform for growth”.

 

Sandri concluded “Overall, I am extremely pleased with our team members and the execution of our strategy under difficult conditions. We are committed to being the best and most respected company in our industry, and we will continue to perform to the best of our ability to serve our Key Customers and create a better future for our team members.”

 

Holding company JBS S.A. holds 80.8 percent of the equity of PPC and is bidding for the remainder of which 17.5 percent is owned by institutional investors.


 

Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q1 2022

12/29/2021

Rabobank issued the Poultry Quarterly covering the first three months of 2022 in mid-December.  Lead author Nan-Dirk Mulder reviewed global trends in chicken production and profitability with comments on trade, domestic and export demand and ingredient costs for the major nations considered.

 

In a generally optimistic report, Rabobank project a two percent global growth in demand for chicken.  This will be reflected in higher unit revenue, but offset by escalation in ingredient and labor costs.  Avian influenza remains a concern in Europe and Asia with African swine fever remaining as a factor determining availability of animal protein.  COVID will be an unknown factor influencing both demand and availability of labor. 

 

 

Specific comments on producing nations included:-

  • In China, wet markets represent a lower proportion of sales of chicken but the market for white-feathered broilers is saturated.
  •  In Thailand COVID has impacted the availability of labor, seriously reducing exports since this nation relies on hand deboning and preparation of high-value specialty products. 
  • For Japan and the EU, the report considered major producers of chicken and continued imports. 
  • U.S. growth in 2022 will increase by slightly more than 2.0 percent.  Export volume will increase by approximately one percent, but value will be higher compared to 2021. 
  • Exports from Brazil will increase in volume and carry higher prices.  Although China represents 15 percent of chicken exports, volumes are increasing to the Philippines, the UAE, Japan, and the EU.  Brazil is gaining market share in Mexico with a 600 percent increase to 99,000 metric tons in 2021.  Brazil should stabilize exports to Saudi Arabia following suspension of plants in mid-2021.  Domestic demand may be restrained by economic conditions and COVID.
  • E.U. prices will increase in 2022 for whole birds and portions.  Avian influenza is an anticipated restraint together with low availability of labor and high ingredient cost.  The E.U. has lost markets in the U.K. after Brexit and to Chile.  Reduced imports will be recorded from the U.K., Ukraine, and Chile.  Imports from Thailand dropped by approximately one third to 28,000 metric tons in Q3 of 2021 due to inability of that nation to supply.  The capacity of EU nations to control COVID will influence production and prices during Q1 of 2022 and possibly thereafter.
  • Demand and hence prices are increasing in Mexico and this trend will continue through 2022. Production will expand by two percent in volume, but imports will be higher with imports from the U.S. and also Brazil that now account for 10 percent of the market.
  • In Russia meat prices will escalate but margins will be offset by increased feed costs that are partly constrained by export taxes on soybeans and grains.
  • The balance between supply and demand in China has resulted in relatively weak to fluctuating prices for white-feathered live birds.  With restoration of pork production progressing, imports have declined and profitability of chicken production in 2022 is questionable.

 

 
Copyright © 2022 Simon M. Shane