Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-November 2019.

01/12/2020

Export data for the first eleven months of 2019 indicate a fractional increase in exports of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from progressive monthly comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price although reversed slightly in the third quarter of 2018. The trend in successively lower or static unit prices is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. The extensive outbreak of African swine fever may boost U.S. exports to Asia in the intermediate term as all animal protein will rise in price as pork supply is curtailed.

 

Total exports of broiler parts for the period attained 2,958,655 metric tons, 0.5 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (2,942,673 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 1.8 percent to $2,977 million ($2,924 million).

 

During January-November 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 3,177,336 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $3,281 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,033 per metric ton, 1.2 percent lower in unit value compared to the first eleven months of 2018 ($1,046 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-November by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2019 compared with 2018 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

· Chicken parts 96.4%; Unit value $973 per metric ton ($975)

· Prepared chicken 2.2%; Unit value $3,588 per metric ton ($3,562)

· Whole chicken 1.4%; Unit value $1,043 per metric ton ($1,007)


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #596 January 10th 2020

01/10/2020

OVERVIEW

Predictably the January 10th 2020 USDA WASDE Report was updated from December with more accurate yields for corn and soybeans but with relatively unaltered price projections for these commodities.

 

Corn and soybean harvests reflected in the January 2020 WASDE are based on actual yield and harvested area. The corn acreage harvested was 81.5 million acres, 0.4 percent down from the December 2019 WASDE (81.8 million in 2018). Soybeans were harvested from 75.0 million acres, 0.8 percent down from the December 2019 WASDE. (88.3 million acres in 2018)

 

The January 2020 WASDE projected corn yield was raised by 0.6 percent to 168 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018). The relatively low value was due to late planting, delayed development and adverse weather before harvest. Soybean yield was raised 1.1 percent to 47.4 bushels per acre from the December 2019 WASDE, (52.1 bushels in 2018).

 

The November USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was lowered 0.9 percent to 1,892 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be unchanged from the December estimate at 475 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with conflicting reports on trade negotiations with China. It is presumed that projections are based on the assumption that there will be continued trade in accordance with the Phase-1 agreement on trade with China in 2020. Some orders representing four percent of projected 2019 exports of soybeans were forthcoming in September after the August G-7 Summit in France. In mid-September, China rescinded a ban on all agricultural imports from the U.S. imposed on August 4th. This followed the announcement of a delay in introducing a September 1st threatened tariff of 10 percent on imports from China valued at $300 billion not already subject to duty.

 

To date there has been no announced commitment on either volumes or prices of commodities to be imported by China in 2020.


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019.

12/16/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on December 16th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the November 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 2.9 percent compared to 2018 to 19.93 million metric tons (43,839 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was retained from the November report at 43.1 kg. (94.9 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.0 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.200 million metric tons (7,040 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that failure to ratify the USMCA, (concluded in September 2018), by both the U.S. Congress and by the Parliament of Canada before the end of 2019 will not impact exports to our NAFTA neighbors. The projection does not take into account the unattainable prospect of renewed exports to China in 2019 despite completion of negotiations for the Phase-1 agreement in mid-December.

Turkey production was retained from the November report at 2.677 million metric tons (5,889 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.0 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection from 2018 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will remain at 0.290 million metric tons (637 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 and 2020 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the USMCA signed in September 2018, will not be ratified by the legislatures of the U.S and Canada in 2019, but NAFTA partners will not increase tariffs. In this event market share in Mexico will be retained despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

The projections do not allow for emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvNCD.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019

(forecast)

% Difference 2020

2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.927

+2.9 20.568

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

+2.6 44.1

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.200

+0.4 3.375

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.0

-3.0 16.4

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.677

+0.2 2.693

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.290

+4.3 0.309

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

10.8

+4.5 11.5

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of export data under the STATISTICS tab.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -December 16 th 2019


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-September 2019.

11/10/2019

Export data for the first nine months of 2019 indicate a fractional increase in exports of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from progressive monthly comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price although reversed in September. The trend in successively lower unit prices is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. The extensive outbreak of African swine fever may boost U.S. exports in the intermediate term as all animal protein will rise in price as the pork supply is curtailed.

Total exports of broiler parts for the period attained 2,372,142 metric tons, 0.6 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (2,357,754 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 1.1 percent to $2,420 million ($2,394 million).

During January-September 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,459,254 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $2,673 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,049 per metric ton, 1.7 percent higher in unit value compared to the first nine months of 2018 ($1,067 per metric ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-September by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2019 compared with 2018 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

· Chicken parts 96.2%; Unit value $986 per metric ton ($995)

· Prepared chicken 2.4%; Unit value $3,588 per metric ton ($3,557)

· Whole chicken 1.4%; Unit value $1,049 per metric ton ($1,024)


 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane