Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #592 September 12th 2019

09/12/2019

OVERVIEW

The September 12th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and pre-harvest data with progressive updating as the season has advanced. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed in June at 90.0 million acres (81.8 million in 2018) unchanged from the August WASDE. In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 75.9 million acres, unchanged from the August estimate (88.3 million acres in 2018)

The USDA projected corn yield was lowered 0.8 percent to 168.2 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018) reflecting late planting and delayed development. Soybean yield was reduced 1.2 percent to 47.9 bushels per acre from August. (52.1 bushels in 2018). Yield values presume suitable growing conditions until harvest.

The August USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 0.4 percent from the August WASDE to 2,190 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 15.2 percent lower than the August estimate at 640 million bushels. Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations. It is presumed that projections are based on the presumption that there will be no settlement of the trade dispute with China during the fourth quarter of 2019. China failed to commit to purchases following the June meeting between President Trump and Premier Xi at the G-20 Meeting in Osaka. No orders were forthcoming after the G-7 Summit in France in August. China banned all agricultural imports from the U.S. on August 4th following the announcement of a 10 percent tariff, effective September 1st on imports from China valued at $300 billion in 2019 and not already subject to duty.


 

Meat Exports

09/06/2019

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-July 2019.

Export data for the first seven months of 2019 indicate a moderate increase in exports of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from this and progressive monthly comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price. This is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Total exports of broiler parts for the period attained 1,838,031 metric tons, 1.3 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (1,813,972 metric tons). Total value of exports declined by 1.9 percent to $1,834 million ($1,869 million).


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019.

08/16/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data on August 16th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the July 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.7 percent compared to 2018 to 19.81 million metric tons (43,311 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was increased from the July report at 42.7 kg. (93.9 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.4 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.237 million metric tons (7,121 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that the USMCA concluded in September 2018 will be approved by Congress and by the Parliament of Canada by the end of the year.

Turkey production will remain almost unchanged in 2019 compared to 2018 at 2.675 million metric tons (5,885 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will be 0.285 million metric tons (627 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of the U.S and Canada, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.687

+1.7 19.909

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

42.5

+0.8 42.7

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.237

+0.7 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.4

-0.6 16.6

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.675

-0.1 2.695

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.3

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.285

+2.5 0.286

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

10.7

+2.9 10.6

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -August 16 th 2019


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-June 2019

08/09/2019

Export data for the first half of 2019 indicates a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from this and previous comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price. This is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 90 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Total broiler exports for the period attained 1,562,922 metric tons, 1.0 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (1,458,159 metric tons). Total value of exports declined by 4.6 percent to $1,529 million ($1,603 million).

During January-June 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,678,408 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,701 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,013 per metric ton, 6.7 percent lower in value compared to the first six months of 2018 ($1,086 per metric ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-June by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2019 compared with 2018 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 96.2%; Unit value $944 per metric ton ($1,014)

  • Prepared chicken 2.6%; Unit value $3,550 per metric ton ($3,535)

  • Whole chicken 1.2%; Unit value $1,038 per metric ton ($1,065)

    The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports in January-June 2019 with corresponding figures for 2018:-

 

PRODUCT

JAN-JUNE 2018

JAN-JUNE 2019

DIFFERENCE

Broiler Meat

     

Volume (metric tons)

1,548,159

1,562,922

+14,763 (+1.0%)

Value ($ millions)

1,603

1,529

-74 (-4.6%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,035

978

-57 (-5.5%)

Turkey Meat

     

Volume (metric tons)

135,975

141,698

+5,723 (+4.2%)

Value ($ millions)

304

311

+7 (+2.3%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

2,225

2,150

-75 (-3.4%)

Chicken Paws

     

Volume (metric tons)

81,200

85,942

+4,742 (+5.8%)

Value ($ millions)

130

108

-22 (-16.9%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,601

1,257

-344 (-21.5%)

 

COMPARISON OF U.S. POULTRY MEAT EXPORT DATA FOR JAN-JUNE 2019 COMPARED TO JAN-JUNE 2018

EXPORTS OF BROILER PARTS JAN.-JUNE 2018

Total broiler parts exports during the first half of 2019 compared with the corresponding period in 2018 increased by 1.0 percent in volume but declined 4.6 percent in value. Unit value decreased 5.5 percent from $1,035 per metric ton to $978 per metric ton.

The U.S. broiler industry sells mostly leg quarters, an undifferentiated commodity, in a relatively static and price-sensitive market against competition from other exporters and the domestic production in importing nations. The gain in value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the currencies of Brazil, Argentina and Thailand adversely impacts competitiveness.

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 45.5 percent of shipments during the first six months of 2019. The top ten importers contributed 63.8 percent of the total volume.

Mexico was the largest importer of broiler meat from the U.S. during the six-month period with a volume of 328,505 metric tons representing 21.0 percent of volume and 19.0 percent of total value at a unit price of $885 per metric ton. Unit value during June 2019 rose 23.1 percent to $1,002 per m. ton compared with June 2018. Despite a 0.3 percent lower volume total value increased by 23.5 percent.

Taiwan was the 2nd ranked broiler meat importer receiving 118,647 metric tons representing 7.6 percent of volume and 6.5 percent of value with a unit price of $840 per ton. Taiwan decreased purchases by 19.8 percent in June 2019 compared to 2018 resulting in Taiwan falling to 5 th rank among importers during the month.

Cuba continued as the 3rd ranked importer during Jan.-June 2019 with 7.5 percent of volume (118,647 metric tons) but 6.0 percent of value ($91.5 million) attributed to the product mix with a unit price of $780 per metric ton. Cuba reduced imports by 6.5 percent in June 2019 (21,401 metric tons) compared to June 2018 but retained 2nd rank among destinatio

 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane