Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA Agricultural Prices Report

12/24/2020

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released November 30th posted October prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

 The USDA ERS detailed prices as follows:-

 

“The October Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 88.8, decreased 0.2 percent from September but increased 3.3 percent from October 2019. At 87.7, the Crop Production Index is down 6.4 percent from last month but up 5.5 percent from October 2019. The Livestock Production Index, at 90.6, increased 7.7 percent from September, but is unchanged from October 2019. Producers received higher prices during October for milk, hogs, market eggs, and broilers but lower prices for potatoes, rice, dry beans, and sunflowers. In addition to prices, the indexes are influenced by the volume change of commodities producers market. In October, there was increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, cotton, and calves and decreased marketing of cattle, milk, broilers, and grapes”.

 

“The October Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 111.1, is up 0.7 percent from September 2020 and 0.6 percent from October 2019. Higher prices in October for complete feeds, feeder pigs, concentrates, and feed grains more than offset lower prices for diesel, other services, gasoline, and wage rates”.

 

Corn farmers received $3.41 per bushel in October 2020 compared to $3.80 per bushel in October 2019, down 11.4 percent.

 

Soybean farmers received $9.24 per bushel in October 2020 compared to $8.35 per bushel in October 2019, up 10.7 percent.

 

Egg farmers received 99.4 cents per dozen for table eggs in October 2020 compared to 66.3 cents per dozen in 2019, up 49.9 percent.

 

Broiler farmers received 31.5 cents per live lb. in October 2020 compared to 41 cents per live lb. in October 2019, down 23.2 percent.


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020-2021.

12/16/2020

On December 16th the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2019 (revised), a projection for 2020 and a forecast for 2021.

 

Broiler RTC production in 2020 was updated from the November report to reflect a 1.5 percent increase over 2019 to 20.25 million metric tons RTC (44,560 million lbs.). Processing rates in March and April were depressed due to COVID-19 despite demand. Per capita consumption in 2020 was projected to be 1.1 percent higher than in 2019 at 43.7 kg. (96.1 lbs.). Exports will represent 16.5 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.345 million metric tons (7,359 million lbs.) representing both RTC and feet.

 

The projection presumably takes into account exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping attributed to the COVID-19 outbreak restricted exports to China during the first quarter of 2020. China imported 181,966 metric tons of chicken products with feet predominating during the first ten months of 2020 valued at $575 million.

 

For 2021 RTC production is expected to increase 1.1 percent from 2020 to 20.48 million metric tons, (45,046 million lbs.) with per capita consumption up 0.5 percent to 43.9 kg (96.6 lbs.) from 2020. Exports are projected to increase 0.4 percent to 3.36 million metric tons (7,390 million lbs.)

 

 

Turkey production for 2020 compared to 2019 was reduced by 1.7 percent to 2.600 million metric tons RTC, (5,722 million lbs.). Per capita consumption is forecast at 7.1 kg. (15.7 lb.) during 2020, 1.9 percent less than 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 is expected to attain to 0.263 million metric tons (578 million lbs.) Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2020 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

USDA projected a 0.6 percent increase in turkey RTC production in 2021 to attain 2.616 million metric tons (5,755 million lbs.) with per capita consumption of7.1 kg (15.6 lbs.) and a 1.9 percent increase in exports of 0.268 million metric tons (590 million lbs.)

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND. Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.

   

Parameter

    2019 (revised)     

      2020

   (projection)

       2021           Difference %

  (forecast)     2019 to 2020

Broilers

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

   19.957

20.255

        20.475                 +1.1

Consumption (kg per capita)

43.1

43.7

          43.9                   +0.5

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.231

3.345

         3.359                  +0.4

Proportion of production (%)

16.2

16.5

          16.4                   -0.6

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.644

2.600

        2.616                    +2.6

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.3

7.1

          7.1                         0

Exports (m. metric tons)

      0.291

0.263

       0.268                     +1.9   

Proportion of production (%)

11.2

         10.1

         10.2                     +0.9     

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –November 17th 2020


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-October 2020.

12/11/2020

Export data for the first ten months of the current year confirmed a 5.3* percent increase in exports of broiler parts including feet, in comparison to January-October 2019. Unit price was 2.9 percent lower compared to the corresponding period in 2019 at $996. Value rose by 2.3* percent compared to the first ten months of 2019. There were progressive reductions in value during May, (7 percent); June, (11 percent); July, (14 percent) and August, (10.7 percent) but with stabilization in September, (-0.2 percent) and an increase of 6.1 percent in October compared to corresponding months in 2019.

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of chicken meat exports, excluding feet with whole birds and specialty products contributing a small proportion to the volume shipped. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value commodity lacking pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

The extensive outbreak of African swine fever has boosted U.S. livestock and poultry exports to Asia over the intermediate-term, as all animal protein will rise in price as pork supply is restricted. The effect of increased demand from Viet Nam is apparent but disruption in ports and transport infrastructure due to the COVID-19 outbreak impacted exports to China during January and February 2020.

 

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat (including feet) exports for January-October 2019 with the corresponding months in 2020:-


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #607 December 10th 2020

12/10/2020

OVERVIEW

The December 10th 2020 USDA WASDE Report was updated from the November edition with no change in either corn or soybean harvest. December values are based on actual harvest areas and yields. The corn acreage harvested is currently estimated at 82.5 million acres, unchanged from the November 10th WASDE report. Soybeans will be harvested from 82.3 million acres, unchanged from the December 10th WASDE report.

 

The December 2020 WASDE estimate of corn yield was retained at 175.8 bushels per acre, (168.0 bushels per acre in 2019). The estimate of soybean yield was retained at 50.7 bushels per acre. (47.4 bushels per acre in 2019)

 

The December USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was held at 1,702 million bushels. Due to exports the ending stock for soybeans was reduced by 7.9 percent to 175 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with increased compliance with the Phase-One trade agreement with China. The November WASDE projected the corn price to be $4.00 per bushel and soybeans at 1,055 cents per bushel.

 

It is presumed that projections are based on the assumption that China will as far as possible honor commitments that were disrupted during the first quarter of 2020 by COVID-19. China booked substantial orders for corn and soybeans delivered through August for the 2019-2020 market year in addition to large quantities booked from September onwards for the 2020-2021 market year. Reports on volumes of commodities exports to China will be included in upcoming editions of CHICK-NEWS and in subsequent mailings as data becomes available.

 

CORN

The corn harvest for 2020 documented in the December 2020 WASDE Report #607 is 14,507 million bushels consistent with actual data. The projected 2020 harvest can be compared to 2019 at 13,692 million bushels and is 4.2 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged at 5,700 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was retained at 5,050 million bushels despite reduced domestic demand for E-10 due to COVID-19 restrictions and competition in the export markets. Corn exports were held at 2,650 million bushels in the face of intense competition from Brazil and Argentine and high world domestic coarse grain production relative to demand. Ending stocks were unchanged at 1,702 million bushels.

 

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was held at 400 cents per bushel. At 13H00 on December 10th after release of the WASDE the CME quotations for December and March corn were 422 cents and 424 cents per bushel down 0.2 percent and 1.7 percent respectively from quotations on November 10th.


 

 
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