Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports in January-August 2022.

10/19/2022

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet for the first eight months of 2022 attained 2,501,985 metric tons, 4.8 percent more than during the corresponding months in 2021 (2,387,485 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 20.2 percent to $3,506 million ($2,916 million 2021).

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 to date unit value of leg quarters has increased consistent with international demand. Despite the recent welcome increase in unit price, leg quarters represent a relatively low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

During January-August 2022 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,525,294 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $3,567 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,412 per metric ton, 14.3 percent higher in unit value than for January-August 2021 ($1,235 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-August 2022 by proportion and unit price for each broiler category compared with the corresponding months in 2021 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 9%; Unit value $1,360 per metric ton ($1,176)
  • Prepared chicken 1%; Unit value $3,800 per metric ton ($2,914)
  • Whole chicken 0%; Unit value $1,360 per metric ton ($1,340) 


 

Poultry Meat Projection

10/19/2022

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for October 2022.

 

On October 18th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.

 

Compared to 2021, broiler RTC production in 2022 was increased 2.2 percent in the October report to 45,899 million lbs. RTC (20.863 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 2.3 percent higher compared to 2021 at 98.8 lbs. (44.9 kg.). Exports will represent 15.6 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,168 million lbs. (3.258 million metric tons) comprising RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.

 

The projection for 2023 is for 46,675 million lbs. (21.193 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 100.1 lbs. (45.5 kg.) and exports of 7,370 million lbs. (3.350 million metric tons).

 

Turkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be 6.4 percent lower at 5,204 million lbs. (2.365 million metric tons) RTC. The October projection of per capita consumption for 2022 was 3.9 percent lower than in 2021 at 14.7 lbs. (6.7 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 26.3 percent to 404 million lbs. (0.184 million metric tons) from 2021. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.

 

The October USDA forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprised annual production of 5,610 million lbs. (2.550 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.8 lbs. (7.2 kg.) per capita.

 

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Parameter

2021

(actual)

2022

(update)

Difference %
2021 to 2022

2023

(projection)

Broilers

       

Production (million lbs.)

44,898

45,899

+2.2

46,625

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

96.6

98.8

+2.3

100.1

Exports (million lbs.)

7,355

7,168

-2.5

7,370

Proportion of production (%)

16.4

15.6

-3.7

15.8

         

Turkeys

       

Production (million lbs.)

5,558

5,204

-6.4

5,610

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

15.3

14.7

-3.9

15.8

Exports (million lbs.)

548

 404

-26.3

415

Proportion of production (%)

 9.9

7.8

-21.2

7.3

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released October 18th 2022

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

 

The projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For the first eight months of 2022 China imported 431,582 tons of broiler products valued at $768 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,780 per ton.

 

Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys and exports posted in each edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.


 

Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, September 2022

09/23/2022

Poult Production and Placement:

The September 14th 2022 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 27.16 million eggs in incubators on September 1st 2022 compared to 26.10 million eggs on September 1st 2021* The September set was Up 4.1 percent (1.06 million eggs) from September 2021 and 0.2 percent lower (53,000 eggs) than the previous month of August 2022.

 

A total of 23.55 million poults were hatched during August 2022 compared to 23.27 million in August 2021*. The August 2022 hatch was up 1.2 percent (289,000 poults) from the previous month of August 2022.

A total of 22.35 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in August 2022, compared to 22.01 million in August 2021*. The August placement was 1.6 percent, (342,000 poults) more than the month of August 2021. This data suggests disposal of 1.20 million poults during the month. Approximately 5.1 percent of the August 2022 hatch was not placed.

 

For the twelve-month period September 2021 through August 2022 inclusive, 270.02 million poults were hatched and 251.19 million were placed. This suggests disposal of 18.83 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 7.0 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.


 

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, September 2022.

09/23/2022

Chick Placements.

According to weekly USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports 0.967 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from August 27th through September 17th 2022

 

Total placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 0.775 million chicks. Claimed average hatchability for the period averaged 80.6 percent (80.2 percent last four-week period) for eggs set three weeks earlier. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents 1.9 million chicks placed per week with the current range of weekly settings.  

 

For the period August 27th through September 17th USDA reported that average placements were 5.0 percent higher than the equivalent weeks in 2021. Cumulative chick placements for the period January 8th 2022 through September 17th amounted to 6.98 billion chicks, approximately one percent higher than the corresponding period in 2021.

 

Low chick placement during 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 was attributed to setting a proportion of hatching eggs with depressed fertility that were derived from high-yield breed combinations selected by some integrators. Additional breeder flocks were placed to compensate for reduced fertility and their contribution is reflected in broilers harvested during the second quarter of 2022 onwards. According to the September 21st edition of USDA Chickens and Eggs pullet breeder chicks placed during August amounted to 7.68 million down 12.0 percent from August 2021 but up 0.14 million chicks or 1.8 percent higher than the previous month of July 2022. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 63.0 million in August.

 

Broiler Production

According to the new format September 23rd USDA Broiler Market News Report for the processing week ending September 17th 2022, 173.3 million broilers were processed at 6.49 lbs. live. This was 1.6 percent more than the 170.6 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of August 2022 and 3.1 percent more than the 168.1 million processed during the corresponding week in September 2021. Broilers processed year-to-date amounted to 6.26 billion, 1.9 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2021.

 

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week was 854.7 million lbs. (388,536 metric tons).  This was 3.2 percent more than the 829.3 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in August 2022 and 3.1 percent more than the 829.3 million lbs. during the corresponding week in September 2021. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2022 to date RTC broiler production attained 30,235 million lbs. (13.744 million metric tons). This quantity is 1.7 percent more than the corresponding period in 2021.

 

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price on September 23rd was down 4.0 cents per lb. or 3.1 percent compared to August 19th at 125.2 cents per lb., cents per lb. and an average during August of 130.4 cents per lb. The attached USDA figures denote three-year average prices for whole birds and breasts.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports in January-July 2022.

09/16/2022

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet for the first seven months of 2022 attained 2,186,492 metric tons, 5.7 percent more than during the corresponding months in 2021 (2,067,857 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 20.5 percent to $3,029 million ($2,513 million 2021).

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 to date unit value of leg quarters has increased consistent with international demand. Despite the recent welcome increase in unit price, leg quarters represent a relatively low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

During January-July 2022 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,207,689 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $3,082 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,396 per metric ton, 12.0 percent higher in unit value than for January-July 2021 ($1,229 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-July 2022 by proportion and unit price for each broiler category compared with the corresponding months in 2021 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

 

  • Chicken parts 9%; Unit value $1,345 per metric ton ($1,170)
  • Prepared chicken 1%; Unit value $3,758 per metric ton ($2,936)
  • Whole chicken 0%; Unit value $1,297 per metric ton ($1,284) 

 

The outbreak of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 onwards coupled with disruptions in chicken production and logistics thereafter due to COVID restrictions, increased demand for protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished as hog production is restored and mild overproduction is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet during the second half of 2022.

 

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports for January-July 2022 with the corresponding months of 2021:-

 

PRODUCT

January-July

2021

January-July

2022

DIFFERENCE

Broiler Meat & Feet

Volume (metric tons)

2,067,857

2,186,492

+118,635 (+5.7%)

Value ($ millions)

2,513

3,029

+516 (+20.5%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,215

1,385

+170 (+14.0%)

Turkey Meat

Volume (metric tons)

143,602

113,191

-30,411 (-21.2%)

Value ($ millions)

356

372

+16 (+4.5%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

2,479

3,286

+ 807 (+32.6%)

 

COMPARISON OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS FOR JANUARY-JULY

2021 AND 2022

 

BROILER EXPORTS JANUARY-JULY 2022

Total broiler parts, predominantly leg quarters but including feet, exported during January-July 2022 as compared with 2021 increased by 5.7 percent in volume and 20.5 percent in value. Unit value was 14.0 percent higher at $1,385 per metric ton.

 

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 53.1 percent of shipments during January-July 2022. The top ten importers comprised 72.9 percent of the total volume reflecting increasing concentration among the significant importing nations.

 

During July 2022 volume was <0.1 percent higher to 295,686 metric tons compared to July 2021. Value was 16.3 percent higher to $449 million attributed to a 16.0 percent increase in unit value to $1,517 per metric ton.

 

For the first seven months of 2022 exports of all broiler products to first-ranked China were 47.0 percent higher by volume at 369,623 metric tons and 44.5 percent higher by value at $662 million compared to January-July 2021. Average unit price for all exports to China in January-July 2022 was $1,792 per ton compared with $1,385 per ton for all exports, or excluding China $1,302 per ton, demonstrating the weighting of feet on export value.

 

According to USDA statistics during the first seven months of 2022 feet accounted for 75.0 percent of volume at 238,766 metric ton, valued at $487 million with a unit price of $2,039 per metric ton. Other broiler products exported to China during January-July 2022 included legs and leg quarters at 18.3 percent of volume with a unit price of $884 per ton; wings 2.0 percent at a unit price of $1,643 per metric ton and other products including edible giblets comprising 4.5 percent of volume at $1,656 per metric ton. 

 

During January-July 2022 Mexico was the second-ranked importer by both volume and value with 365,106 metric tons representing 16.7 percent of export volume down 12.3 percent from January-July 2021. Value at $448 million was 14.8 percent of the total for exported broiler products during the seven months and down 10.2 percent from the corresponding months in 2021, attributable to a 2.3 percent increase in unit price to $1,226 per metric ton. During July Mexico imported 48,537 metric tons valued at $64.4 million. These values were respectively 19.2 percent and 11.3 percent lower than in July 2021

 

Over the first seven months of 2022 nations gaining in volume compared to the corresponding period in 2021 (with the percentage change indicated) in descending order of volume were:-

 

China (+47%); Taiwan, (+71%); Canada, (+1%); Angola, (+1%); Haiti, (+13%); Congo-Brazzaville, (+81%) and UAE, (+38%).

 

Losses in January-July 2022 offset gains in exports with declines for:-

Mexico, (-12%); Cuba, (-14%); Philippines, (-3%); Guatemala, (-10%); Viet Nam, (-10%); Republic of South Africa, (-1%); Ghana, (-9%) and Colombia, (-22%).

 

TURKEY EXPORTS, JANUARY-JULY 2022

The volume of turkey meat exported during January-July 2022 decreased by 21.2 percent from the corresponding months in 2021 but value rose by 4.5 percent compared to January-July 2021 with an increase in average unit value of 32.6 percent from $2,479 per metric ton to $3,286 per metric ton.


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for September 2022.

09/16/2022

On September 16th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.

 

Compared to 2021, broiler RTC production in 2022 was increased 1.3 percent in the September report to 45,474 million lbs. RTC (20.670 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 1.2 percent higher compared to 2021 at 97.7 lbs. (44.4 kg.). Exports will represent 15.8 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,168 million lbs. (3.258 million metric tons) comprising both RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.

 

The projection for 2023 is for 45,900 million lbs. (20.864 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 98.2 lbs. (44.6 kg.) and exports of 7,370 million lbs. (3.350 million metric tons).

 

Turkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be 6.2 percent lower at 5,214 million lbs. (2.369 million metric tons) RTC. The September projection of per capita consumption in 2022 was 4.6 percent lower than in 2021 at 14.6 lbs. (6.6 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 25.9 percent to 406 million lbs. (0.185 million metric tons) from 2021. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.

 

The September USDA forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprised annual production of 5,630 million lbs. (2.559 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.7 lbs. (7.1 kg.) per capita.

 

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Parameter

2021

(actual)

2022

(update)

Difference % 2021

to 2022

2023

(projection)

Broilers

Production (million lbs.)

44,898

45,474

+1.3

45,900

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

96.5

97.7

+1.2

98.2

Exports (million lbs.)

7,355

7,168

-2.5

7,370

Proportion of production (%)

16.4

15.8

-3.7

16.1

Turkeys

Production (million lbs.)

5,558

5,214

-6.2

5,630

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

15.3

14.6

-4.6

15.7

Exports (million lbs.)

548

 406

-25.9

410

Proportion of production (%)

 9.9

7.8

-21.2

7.3

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 16th 2022

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

 

The projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For the first seven months of 2022 China imported 369,623 tons of broiler products valued at $662 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,791 per ton.

 

Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys and exports posted in each edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.


 

USDA Export Projections For Chicken

09/02/2022

Based on the August 12th, 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA has projected chicken exports for 2022 with a forecast for 2023.

 

Broiler meat exports will amount to 3.3 million metric tons in 2022 valued at $4.2 billion.  For 2023, volume and value will be unchanged, representing a unit price excluding feet, which are not federally inspected, at $1,272 per metric ton.

 

The 2023 exports of all agricultural products will amount to $193.5 billion in 2023, balanced by imports of $197.0 billion resulting in a negative annual balance of $3.5 billion.


 

Pilgrim’s Pride Reports on Q4 and FY 2021

02/09/2022

In a press release dated February 9th Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (PPC) announced results for the 4th Quarter and FY 2021 ending December 26th 2022.      

 

The following table summarizes the results for the period compared with the values for the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year (Values expressed as US$ x 1,000 except EPS)

 

4th Quarter Ending

Dec 26th 2021

Dec. 27th 2020

Difference (%)

Sales:

$4,038,769

$3,117,9829

+29.5

Gross profit:

$352,500

$227,396

+55.0

Operating income:

$55,054

$39,500

+39.3

Pre-tax Income

Net Income

$41,659

$36,754

$9,185

$79

+353.6

-

Diluted earnings per share:

$0.15

-

-

Gross Margin (%)

8.7

7.3

+19.2

Operating Margin (%)

1.4

1.3

+7.7

Profit Margin (%)

0.9

0

-

Long-term Debt:

$3,292,897

$2,404,307

+37.0

12 Months Trailing:

 

 

 

           Return on Assets    (%)

5.3

 

 

           Return on Equity    (%)

-0.2

 

 

           Operating Margin   (%)

5.0

 

 

           Profit Margin          (%)

0

 

 

Total Assets

$8,913,205

$7,474,497

+19.3

Market Capitalization

 

 

 

 

For FY 2021 Pilgrim’s Pride earned $31.0 million on revenue of $14,778 million with a diluted EPS of $0.13.

For FY 2020 Pilgrim’s Pride earned $94.8 million on revenue of $12,091 million with a diluted EPS of $0.38

 

In reviewing the contribution of geographic segments for FY 2021:-
The U.S generated 61 percent of sales and 68 percent of earnings

The E.U. generated 28 percent of sales and 12 percent of earnings

Mexico generated 11 percent of sales and 20 percent of earnings

 

52-Week Range in Share Price:  $20.32 to $29.70 with a 50-day Moving average  $27.99

Market            Close Tuesday 8th February $28.97. Closed Wednesday 9th February, post-release almost unchanged at $28.95

Forward P/E 11.2              Beta1.1

 

In commenting on Q4 and FY 2021 results Fabio Sandri CEO stated, “The Pilgrim’s Pride team was relentless in the face of input cost inflation and volatility, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and a global pandemic. They managed through these challenges to deliver a strong performance in the fourth quarter and the fiscal year.”  He added “By staying focused on our Key Customer strategy, on the safety of our employees and on producing high-quality food products, our diversified portfolio delivered improved results over last year as well as 2019 pre-COVID baselines”.

 

In reviewing the U.S. business Sandri stated “Strong U.S. consumer demand for chicken supported fresh meat pricing throughout 2021, and we expect this pricing environment to continue into the near future with the USDA projecting supply growth of only 1.6% for 2022. Chicken remains a great value relative to the other major proteins, and we continue to grow and improve our portfolio in partnerships with Key Customers and to grow our Prepared Foods business while supporting our differentiated Pilgrim’s® and Just Bare® brands within retail and e-commerce.

 

Sandri noted “Our business in Mexico dealt with elevated feed grain pricing for much of the year but executed well and delivered results surpassing last year with Fresh and Prepared Foods offerings in our Pilgrim’s®, Del Dia® and Alamesa® brands”.

 

In relation to E.U. hog and chicken businesses Sandri explained “Our legacy European businesses faced rising input costs and overall inflation, labor disruptions due to Brexit and very challenging market conditions. Through continued execution of our operational excellence strategy and pricing model actions, we are confident in our legacy UK businesses returning to expected results. At the end of September, we welcomed Pilgrim’s Food Masters with its value-added branded products that strengthened our portfolio in Europe and created a differentiated platform for growth”.

 

Sandri concluded “Overall, I am extremely pleased with our team members and the execution of our strategy under difficult conditions. We are committed to being the best and most respected company in our industry, and we will continue to perform to the best of our ability to serve our Key Customers and create a better future for our team members.”

 

Holding company JBS S.A. holds 80.8 percent of the equity of PPC and is bidding for the remainder of which 17.5 percent is owned by institutional investors.


 

Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q1 2022

12/29/2021

Rabobank issued the Poultry Quarterly covering the first three months of 2022 in mid-December.  Lead author Nan-Dirk Mulder reviewed global trends in chicken production and profitability with comments on trade, domestic and export demand and ingredient costs for the major nations considered.

 

In a generally optimistic report, Rabobank project a two percent global growth in demand for chicken.  This will be reflected in higher unit revenue, but offset by escalation in ingredient and labor costs.  Avian influenza remains a concern in Europe and Asia with African swine fever remaining as a factor determining availability of animal protein.  COVID will be an unknown factor influencing both demand and availability of labor. 

 

 

Specific comments on producing nations included:-

  • In China, wet markets represent a lower proportion of sales of chicken but the market for white-feathered broilers is saturated.
  •  In Thailand COVID has impacted the availability of labor, seriously reducing exports since this nation relies on hand deboning and preparation of high-value specialty products. 
  • For Japan and the EU, the report considered major producers of chicken and continued imports. 
  • U.S. growth in 2022 will increase by slightly more than 2.0 percent.  Export volume will increase by approximately one percent, but value will be higher compared to 2021. 
  • Exports from Brazil will increase in volume and carry higher prices.  Although China represents 15 percent of chicken exports, volumes are increasing to the Philippines, the UAE, Japan, and the EU.  Brazil is gaining market share in Mexico with a 600 percent increase to 99,000 metric tons in 2021.  Brazil should stabilize exports to Saudi Arabia following suspension of plants in mid-2021.  Domestic demand may be restrained by economic conditions and COVID.
  • E.U. prices will increase in 2022 for whole birds and portions.  Avian influenza is an anticipated restraint together with low availability of labor and high ingredient cost.  The E.U. has lost markets in the U.K. after Brexit and to Chile.  Reduced imports will be recorded from the U.K., Ukraine, and Chile.  Imports from Thailand dropped by approximately one third to 28,000 metric tons in Q3 of 2021 due to inability of that nation to supply.  The capacity of EU nations to control COVID will influence production and prices during Q1 of 2022 and possibly thereafter.
  • Demand and hence prices are increasing in Mexico and this trend will continue through 2022. Production will expand by two percent in volume, but imports will be higher with imports from the U.S. and also Brazil that now account for 10 percent of the market.
  • In Russia meat prices will escalate but margins will be offset by increased feed costs that are partly constrained by export taxes on soybeans and grains.
  • The balance between supply and demand in China has resulted in relatively weak to fluctuating prices for white-feathered live birds.  With restoration of pork production progressing, imports have declined and profitability of chicken production in 2022 is questionable.

 

 
Copyright © 2022 Simon M. Shane