Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020.

03/18/2020

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on March 16th 2020 for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (actual) and 2019 (revised) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was revised slightly from the January 2020 report. Production in 2019 increased by 3.1 percent compared to 2018 to 19.96 million metric tons (43,905 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was 2.6 percent higher than 2018 at 43.1 kg. (94.8 lbs.). Consumption is expected to increase in 2020 by 2.0 kg (4.4 lbs.) to 45.1 kg (99.2 lbs). Exports will represent 16.1 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.377 million metric tons (7,430 million lbs.) This is based on ratification of the USMCA 2020. The Agreement was concluded in September 2018, modified in November 2019 and will take effect June 1 st. The projection presumably takes into account renewed exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping resulting from the coronavirus outbreak will restrict exports to China during the first quarter of 2020

Turkey production for 2019 was updated to 2.691 million metric tons (5,920 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will be 7.2 kg. (15.9 lb.) during 2020, a 0.6 percent downward projection from 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 was raised from 0.291 million metric tons (640 million lbs.) in 2019 to 0.295 million metric tons (649 million lbs.) presumably from new markets purchasing breast meat, portions and MDM.

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 and 2020 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories.

The projections do not allow for emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvNCD.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019

(revised)

2020 Difference %

(projection) 2019 to 2020

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.957

20.943 +4.9

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

45.1 +4.6

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.231

3.377 +3.2

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.2

16.1 +0.6

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.644

2,691 -1.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

7.2 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.291

0.295 +1.4

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

11.2

11.0 -1.8

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –March 16 th 2020


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January 2020.

03/14/2020

Export data for the first month of the current year confirmed a 2.7 percent increase in exports of broiler parts in comparison to January 2019. An encouraging sign is the continuation of the increase in both unit price and total value noted in the fourth quarter of 2019. Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of exports. This product represents a relatively low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. The extensive outbreak of African swine fever has boosted U.S. exports to Asia over the intermediate term as all animal protein will rise in price as pork supply is restricted by availability. The effect of increased demand from Viet Nam is apparent but disruption in ports and the transport infrastructure by the COVID-19 outbreak impacted exports to China during January and presumably extending into February.

 

Total exports of broiler parts in January 2020 attained 270,333 metric tons, 2.7 percent more than in January 2019 (263,237 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by a substantial 18.5 percent to $275.5 million ($232.5 million Jan 2019).

 

During January 2020 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 287,027 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $302 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,051 per metric ton, 13.9 percent higher in unit value than in January 2019 ($923 per metric ton).


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #598 March 10th 2020

03/10/2020

OVERVIEW

Predictably the March 10th 2020 USDA WASDE Report was little changed from February and included accurate yields for corn and soybeans and relatively unaltered price projections for these commodities.

Corn and soybean harvests reflected in the March 2020 WASDE are based on actual yield and harvested area. The corn acreage harvested was 81.5 million acres, unchanged from the January and February 2020 WASDE reports (81.8 million in 2018). Soybeans were harvested from 75.0 million acres, unchanged from the January and February 2020 WASDE reports. (88.3 million acres in 2018)

The March 2020 WASDE projected corn yield was unchanged at 168 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018). The relatively low value was due to late planting, delayed development and adverse weather before harvest. Soybean yield was unchanged at 47.4 bushels per acre from the January 2020 WASDE, (52.1 bushels in 2018). There is concern that a wet spring in 2020 may delay planting again this season.

The March USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was unchanged at 1,892 million bushels. Due to increased exports the ending stock for soybeans was projected to be 425 million bushels.

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with conflicting reports on trade negotiations and the Phase-One of a trade agreement with China. It is presumed that projections are based on the assumption that China will delay commitments due to disruption caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. Reports on import volumes of commodities by China will be included in upcoming editions of CHICK-NEWS and in subsequent mailings as data becomes available.


 

 
Copyright © 2020 Simon M. Shane