Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Poultry Meat Projection

06/17/2021

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2021.

 

On June 16th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2019 (actual), a projection for 2020 and forecasts for 2021 and 2022.

 

Broiler RTC production in 2021 was changed slightly from the May 2021 report to reflect a 0.7 percent increase over 2020 to 20.406 million metric tons RTC (44,893 million lbs.). Per capita consumption in 2021 will be 0.2 percent higher compared to 2020 at 43.8 kg. (96.4 lbs.). Exports should represent 16.5 percent of RTC production in 2021 attaining 3.363 million metric tons (7,399 million lbs.) representing both RTC and feet. The long-range projection for 2022 is for 20,591 million metric tons (43,300 million lbs.) with a per capita consumption of 44.0 kg (96.7 lb)

 

Turkey production for 2021 compared to 2020 was reduced by 1.4 percent to 2.575 million metric tons RTC, (5,665 million lbs.). Per capita consumption is projected at 7.1 kg. (15.6 lb.) in 2021, 0.1 kg higher than 2020 despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2021 is expected to attain to 0.261 million metric tons (575 million lbs.). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2021 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

The USDA provided a long-term forecast for 2022 comprising annual production of 2,590 million metric tons (5,700 million lbs.) with a consumption of 7.1 kg (15.5 lbs.) per capita.

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations. Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2019

(actual)

2020

(projection)

2021

(forecast)

Difference %

2020 to 2021

Broilers

Production (m. metric tons)

19.957

20.265

20.406

+0.7

Consumption (kg per capita)

43.1

43.7

43.8

+2.8

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.231

3.350

3.363

+0.4

Proportion of production (%)

16.2

16.5

16.5

0

Turkeys

Production (m. metric tons)

2.644

2.610

2.575

-1.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.3

7.2

7.1

-1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.291

0.260

0.264

+1.5

Proportion of production (%)

11.2

10.0

10.2

+2.0

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 16th 2020

 

The projection takes into account forecast exports to China with imports of 512,587 metric tons of chicken products including feet during 2020 valued at $732 million. During the first quarter of 2021 China imported 111,672 metric tons of chicken products valued at $186 million.

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 

U.S. Meat Exports

06/11/2021

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-April 2021.

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet in January-April 2021 attained 1,202,105 metric tons, 2.1 percent more than for the first four months of 2020 (1,176,851 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 11.7 percent to $1,353 million ($1,211 million 2020).

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of exports except feet. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

The still uncontrolled outbreak of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 onwards coupled with disruptions in chicken production during January and February 2020 associated with COVID-19, increased demand for protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. This trend is reversing as hog production is restored in China and overproduction is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for 2021 and 2022 exports.

 

http://www.Chick-News.com/images/Post_Images/2438image.jpgDuring the first four months of 2021 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,215,847 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,384 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,139 per metric ton, 9.4 percent higher in unit value than for the 1st Quarter of 2020 ($1,041 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during the first quarter of 2021 by proportion and unit price for each broiler category compared with the corresponding period of 2020 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

 

  • Chicken parts 9%; Unit value $1,084 per metric ton ($986)
  • Prepared chicken 9%; Unit value $3,001 per metric ton ($3,544)
  • Whole chicken 2%; Unit value $1,176 per metric ton ($1,051) 

 

Direct comparisons between January-April 2020 and 2021 are now valid. The USDA combined export quantities of feet with chicken meat from April 2020 onwards.

 

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports for January-April 2020 with 2021:-


 

Broiler Week

06/11/2021

Weekly Broiler Production and Prices, June 11th 2021.

Chick Placements.

The Broiler Hatchery Report released on June 9th 2021 confirmed that a total of 240.3 million eggs were set during the week ending June 5th 2021, up two percent from the corresponding week of the previous year and 0.3 percent (0.7 million eggs) more than the previous week in 2021.

 

A total of 177.1 million day-old chicks were placed among the 19 major broiler-producing states during the week ending June 5th 2021. Total chick placements for the U.S. amounted to 186.4 million, one percent more than in the corresponding week in 2020 and 1.0 percent (1.8 million chicks) less than the previous week. Claimed average hatchability was 79.8 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, (79.9 percent for the previous week). Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents 2.4 million chicks placed per week with current settings. Cumulative placements for the period January 2nd 2021 through June 5th 2021 amounted to 4.11 billion chicks, up one percent from the corresponding period in 2020. During the period May 31st through April 5th 2021 weekly placements were on average 7.0 percent higher compared with the corresponding six weeks in 2020. This represents placement of an additional 13.0 million chicks per week.

 

Broiler Production

According to the June 11th USDA Broiler Market News (Vol. 68, No. 23) for the short processing week ending June 5th 2021, 116.9 million broilers were processed during the past week (previous week 165.6 million) at an average live weight of 6.45 lbs. (6.40 lbs. last week) and a nominal yield of 76 percent. The number of broilers processed was 27.8 percent less than the corresponding processing week in 2020. Processed (RTC) broiler production for the week was 572.8 million lbs. (260,361 metric tons), (805.5 million lbs. last week), 27.7 percent less than the corresponding processing week in 2020. In 2021 Processed (RTC) production attained 17.75 million lbs. (8,069,634 metric tons), 1.5 percent less than YTD 2020.

 

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price on June 11th 2021 was up 1.4 cents per lb. from the previous week to 107.2 cents per lb., compared to 73.2 cents per lb. during the corresponding week of 2020; 105.4 cents per lb. for May 2021 and 96.0 cents per lb. for the three-year average. The industry still is impacted by the contraction in the food service segment following imposition of COVID-19 restrictions, although QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches.

 

The USDA Southern States (SS) benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) as documented in the Broiler Market News Reports June 11th 2021 are tabulated with a comparison with the previous week:-


 

Turkey Week

06/11/2021

Weekly Turkey Production and Prices June 11th 2021

 

Poult Production and Placement:

The May 13th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 26.0 million eggs in incubators on May 1st 2021 (27.1 million eggs on April 1st 2021) and down 4.8 percent (1.3 million eggs) from May 1st 2020.

 

A total of 23.3 million poults were hatched during April 2021 (23.2 million in March 2021), and representing a decrease of 0.8 percent (0.2 million poults) from April 2020.

 

A total of 22.2 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in April 2021, (22.0 million in March 2021), and 1.1 percent more than in April 2020. This suggests disposal of 1.0 million poults during the month (1.3 million in March 2021). Assuming all tom poults were placed, up to 8.6 percent of April-hatched hen poults or 4.3 percent of all April-hatched poults may not have been reared. This is an unsubstantiated estimate with a fluctuating demand for processed toms and hens in a COVID-affected market. (See relative numbers of hen and tom poults processed under Production Data below).

 

For the twelve-month period May 2020 through April 2021 inclusive, 271.0 million poults were hatched and 249.2 million were placed. This suggests disposal of 21.8 million poults. Assuming all tom poults were placed, (representing a broad assumption as above), 16.0 percent of hen poults or 8.0 percent of all poults hatched during the period were not placed.

 

To be updated in mid-June 2021 following release of monthly USDA data

 

Turkey Production:

The June 11th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Market News Report (Vol. 68: No.23) confirmed the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #613 JUNE 10th 2021

06/10/2021

OVERVIEW

 

After extensive revision in the May 2021 WASDE, the June 10th Report contained few changes from the previous month. The June WASDE documented the 2021growing season with unchanged projections for corn and soybean acreage and yields. The USDA ERS will make subsequent adjustments to projected ending stocks in July based on crop conditions and weather, export trends and harvests in Brazil and in the Southern hemisphere. Planted areas and yields were unchanged from the May WASDE report. The corn acreage to be harvested is currently estimated at 83.5 million acres. Soybeans will be harvested from 86.7 million acres.

 

The June 2021 WASDE estimate of corn yield was maintained at179.5 bushels per acre, (175.8 bushels per acre in 2020). The estimate of soybean yield was held at 50.8 bushels per acre. (50.7 bushels per acre in 2020). Yield values will be adjusted based on weather conditions and crop health

The June 2021 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was lowered by 10.0 percent to 1,357 million bushels based on smaller opening stock. Despite ongoing exports the ending stock for soybeans was raised to 155 million bushels also on higher carryover and anticipation of exports.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with increased exports in accordance with the needs of China rather than compliance by that nation with the Phase-One trade agreement. The June 2021 WASDE maintained the price of $5.70 per bushel. Soybeans were held at 1,385 cents per bushel.

 

It is accepted that projections are based on the reality that China sharply increased purchases of commodities during the current market year partly to cover low stock caused by disruptions in imports during the first quarter of 2020 due to COVID. China booked substantial orders for corn and soybeans from September 2020 onwards for the 2020-2021market year and is placing orders now for the subsequent market year. Reports on volumes of commodity exports to China will be included in upcoming weekly editions of CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS in subsequent mailings as data becomes available.


 

USDA Grain Stocks Report

01/12/2021

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on January 12th documents storage of commodities produced in the U.S. classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of corn and soybeans, the two major crops relevant to poultry production were:-

 

“Corn stored in all positions on December 1st 2020 totaled 11.3 billion bushels, down slightly from December 1st 2019. Of the total stocks, 7.05 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.28 billion bushels, are up 1 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for September through November 2020 is 4.78 billion bushels, compared with 4.51 billion bushels during the same period last year”.

 

“Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1st 2020 totaled 2.93 billion bushels, down 10 percent from December 1st 2019. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.31 billion bushels, down 14 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.62 billion bushels, are down 6 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September through November 2020 totaled 1.73 billion bushels, up 43 percent from the same period a year earlier.


 

USDA Agricultural Prices Report

12/24/2020

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released November 30th posted October prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

 The USDA ERS detailed prices as follows:-

 

“The October Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 88.8, decreased 0.2 percent from September but increased 3.3 percent from October 2019. At 87.7, the Crop Production Index is down 6.4 percent from last month but up 5.5 percent from October 2019. The Livestock Production Index, at 90.6, increased 7.7 percent from September, but is unchanged from October 2019. Producers received higher prices during October for milk, hogs, market eggs, and broilers but lower prices for potatoes, rice, dry beans, and sunflowers. In addition to prices, the indexes are influenced by the volume change of commodities producers market. In October, there was increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, cotton, and calves and decreased marketing of cattle, milk, broilers, and grapes”.

 

“The October Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 111.1, is up 0.7 percent from September 2020 and 0.6 percent from October 2019. Higher prices in October for complete feeds, feeder pigs, concentrates, and feed grains more than offset lower prices for diesel, other services, gasoline, and wage rates”.

 

Corn farmers received $3.41 per bushel in October 2020 compared to $3.80 per bushel in October 2019, down 11.4 percent.

 

Soybean farmers received $9.24 per bushel in October 2020 compared to $8.35 per bushel in October 2019, up 10.7 percent.

 

Egg farmers received 99.4 cents per dozen for table eggs in October 2020 compared to 66.3 cents per dozen in 2019, up 49.9 percent.

 

Broiler farmers received 31.5 cents per live lb. in October 2020 compared to 41 cents per live lb. in October 2019, down 23.2 percent.


 

 
Copyright © 2021 Simon M. Shane