Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020.

06/18/2020

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on June 17th 2020 for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (actual) and 2019 (actual) together with a projection for 2020 and a forecast for 2021.

Broiler production in 2020 was revised upward by 0.6 percent from the May report to reflect a 0.3 percent increase for 2020 over 2019 to 20.02 million metric tons RTC (44,037 million lbs.). Processing rates in March and April were depressed due to COVID-19. Per capita consumption in 2020 will be 0.4 percent lower than in 2019 at 43.0 kg. (94.7 lbs.). This was a 0.6 upward revision from May. Exports will represent 16.8 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.347 million metric tons (7,363 million lbs.) The projection presumably takes into account exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak restricted exports to China during the first quarter of 2020. The export projection for 2020 was unchanged from May based on shipments year-to-date to China and also ratification of the USMCA securing volume to Mexico and Canada.

 

For 2021 production is expected to increase 2.1 percent to 20.443 million metric tons, (44,975 million lbs.) with a 1.5 percent increase in per capita consumption to 43.7 kg (96.1 lbs.) Exports are projected to increase 0.5 percent to 3.36 million metric tons (7,400 million lbs.)

 

Turkey production for 2020 was reduced by 1.1 percent to 2.622 million metric tons RTC, (5,769 million lbs.). Per capita consumption will remain at 7.2 kg. (15.9 lb.) during 2020, 1.4 percent lower than 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 is expected to fall sharply by 11.0 percent to 0.259 million metric tons (569 million lbs.) Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2020 are considered to be optimistic given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories. USDA project a 1.3 percent increase in production in 2021 to 3.781 million metric tons (8,320 million lbs.) with proportional increases in per capita consumption to 7.2 kg (15.9 lbs.) and exports of 263 million metric tons (580 million lbs.)

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND. Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019

(revised)

2020 Difference %

(projection)

2019 to 2020

Broilers

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.957

20,016 -0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

43.0 -0.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.231

3.347 +3.6

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.2

16.7 +3.1

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.644

2,622 -0.9

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

7.2 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.291

0.259 -11.0

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

11.2

9.9 -11.6

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –June 17th 2020


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #601 June 11th 2020

06/11/2020

OVERVIEW

The June 11th 2020 USDA WASDE Report was relatively unchanged from the May edition to reflect a 2020 crop with planting almost complete and ahead of the 5-year average.

 

Corn and soybean harvests reflected in the June 2020 WASDE are based on projected yield and harvested area. The corn acreage to be harvested is currently estimated at 89.6 million acres, unchanged from May and up 9.9 percent from the April 2020 WASDE report. Soybeans will be harvested from 82.8 million acres, up 10.4 percent from the 2019 crop harvested from 77.5 million acres in 2019.

 

The June 2020 WASDE estimate of corn yield was unchanged at 178.5 bushels per acre, (168.0 bushels per acre in 2019). The projection of soybean yield was retained at 49.8 bushels per acre compared to 47.4 bushels per acre for the 2019 crop

 

The June USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was raised fractionally to 3,323 million bushels. Due to increased crushing the ending stock for soybeans was reduced to 395 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with conflicting reports on compliance with the Phase-One trade agreement with China. It is presumed that projections are based on the assumption that China will honor commitments disrupted during the first quarter of 2020 by COVID-19. China has booked substantial orders for soybeans to be delivered in August for the 2019-2020 market year in addition to quantities from September onwards for the 2020-2021 market year. Reports on export volumes of commodities to China will be included in upcoming editions of CHICK-NEWS and in subsequent mailings as data becomes available.


 

Meat Exports

06/06/2020

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-April 2020.

 

Export data for the first four months of the current year confirmed an 8.6 percent increase in exports of broiler parts including feet, in comparison to January-April 2019. An encouraging sign is the continuation of the trend in the increase in both unit price of 8.5 percent and total value of 17.9 percent compared to the first four months of 2019. Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of exports with feet, whole birds and specialty products contributing to the remaining volume shipped. Leg quarters and feet represent relatively low-value commodities lacking pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

The extensive outbreak of African swine fever has boosted U.S. livestock and poultry exports to Asia over the intermediate-term, as all animal protein will rise in price as pork supply is restricted. The effect of increased demand from Viet Nam is apparent but disruption in ports and transport infrastructure due to the COVID-19 outbreak impacted exports to China during January and February 2020.

 

Total exports of broiler parts and feet during January-April 2020 attained 1,176,851 metric tons, 8.6 percent more than in January-April 2019 (1,083,582 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by a substantial 17.9 percent to $1,211 million ($1,027 million Jan.-April 2019).

 

For January-April 2020 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,153,710 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,138 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,042 per metric ton, 7.2 percent higher in unit value than in January-April 2019 ($972 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports, excluding feet, during January-April 2020 by proportion and unit price for each broiler category compared with January-April 2019 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

 

  • Chicken parts 6%; Unit value $986 per metric ton ($898)
  • Prepared chicken 1%; Unit value $3,544 per metric ton ($3,515)
  • Whole chicken 3%; Unit value $1,042 per metric ton ($973)

 


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020.

05/18/2020

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on May 18th 2020 for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (actual) and 2019 (revised) together with a projection for 2020. Broiler data for 2019 in the May report was unchanged from the April 2020 posting.

 

Projection of broiler production in 2020 was revised downward by 3.1 percent from the April report to reflect a 0.3 percent decline for 2020 to 19.90 million metric tons RTC (43,778 million lbs.) compared to 2019. This was occasioned by reduced processing rates in March and April due to COVID-19. Per capita consumption in 2020 will be 0.9 percent lower than in 2019 at 42.7 kg. (94.1.0 lbs.). This was a 4.0 percent downward revision from April. Exports will represent 16.8 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.347 million metric tons (7,363 million lbs.) The projection presumably takes into account renewed exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak restricted exports to China during the first quarter of 2020. The export projection for 2020 was revised upwards from April by 1.9 percent based on shipments year-to-date to China and also ratification of the USMCA securing volume to Mexico and Canada.

 

Turkey production for 2020 was updated 0.3 percent from 2019 to 2.651 million metric tons RTC, (5,834 million lbs.). Per capita consumption will be 7.2 kg. (15.9 lb.) during 2020, 1.4 percent lower than 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 is expected to fall sharply by 8.6 percent to 0.266 million metric tons (585 million lbs.) Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2020 are considered to be optimistic given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND.

 

 

 

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019

(revised)

2020 Difference %

(projection) 2019 to 2020

Broilers

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.957

19,899 -0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

42.7 -0.3

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.231

3.347 +3.6

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.2

16.8 +3.7

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.644

2,651 +0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

7.2 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.291

0.266 -8.6

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

11.2

10.0 -10.7

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –May 18th 2020

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 

 
Copyright © 2020 Simon M. Shane