Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Broiler Week

09/03/2021

Weekly Broiler Production and Prices, September 3rd 2021.

Chick Placements.

The Broiler Hatchery Report released on September 1st 2021 confirmed that a total of 235.9 million eggs were set during the week ending August 28th 2021, up two percent from the corresponding week of the previous year and 1.1percent (2.5 million eggs) lower than the previous week in 2021.

 

A total of 175.6 million day-old chicks were placed among the 19 major broiler-producing states during the week ending August 28th 2021. Total chick placements for the U.S. amounted to 185.2 million, within one percent of the corresponding week in 2020 and 0.3 percent (0.5 million) chicks less than the previous week. Claimed average hatchability was 79.5 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, (79.6 percent for the previous week). Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents 2.4 million chicks placed per week with current settings.

 

Cumulative placements for the period January 9th 2021 through August 28th 2021 amounted to 6.35 billion chicks, up less than one percent from the corresponding period in 2020.

 

During the period July 24th through August 28th 2021 weekly placements were on average 0.2 percent lower compared with the corresponding six weeks in 2020. This represents on average, placement of 0.3 million fewer chicks per week. This is due to setting a proportion of hatching eggs with depressed fertility from high-yield breed combinations maintained by some integrators. Additional breeder flocks have been placed to compensate for reduced fertility and hence hatch but their contribution has yet to be completely attained based on age. The approximately four percent increase in eggs set during the past six weeks should be reflected in higher placements during early to mid-September and broilers harvested during the first half of October onwards.

 

Broiler Production

According to the September 3rd USDA Broiler Market News (Vol. 68, No. 35) for the processing week ending August 28th 2021, 167.8 million broilers were processed during the past week (previous week 167.5 million) at an average live weight of 6.27 lbs. (6.36 lbs. last week) and a nominal yield of 76 percent. The number of broilers processed was 0.8 percent less than the corresponding processing week in 2020. Processed (RTC) broiler production for the week was 799.5 million lbs. (363,388 metric tons), (809.6 million lbs. last week), 2.2 percent less than the corresponding processing week in 2020. In 2021 Processed (RTC) production attained 27.4 million lbs. (12,450,471 metric tons), 0.2 percent less than YTD 2020.

 

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price on September 3 rd 2021 was up 0.7 cent per lb. from the previous week to 105.2 cents per lb., compared to 64.0 cents per lb. during the corresponding week of 2020; 104.8 cents per lb. for August 2021 and 75.0 cents per lb. for the three-year average. The industry still is impacted by the contraction in the food service segment following imposition of COVID-19 restrictions, although QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets.


 

Turkey Week

09/03/2021

Weekly Turkey Production and Prices September 3rd 2021

Poult Production and Placement:

The August 13th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 26.8 million eggs in incubators on August 1st 2021 (26.4 million eggs on July 1st 2021) and down 1.2 percent (0.3 million eggs) from August 1 st 2020.

 

A total of 22.6 million poults were hatched during July 2021 (21.7 million in June 2021), representing a decrease of 5.0 percent (1.2 million poults) from July 2020.

 

A total of 22.3 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in July 2021, (20.9 million in June 2021), 3.0 percent (0.7 million poults) less than July 2020. This suggests disposal of 270,000 poults during the month (0.8 million in June 2021). Placements of hen and tom poults were relatively even for the month.

 

For the twelve-month period August 2020 through July 2021 inclusive, 266.1 million poults were hatched and 246.0 million were placed. This suggests disposal of 20.1 million poults. Assuming the proportion of placements corresponded to the respective numbers of toms and hens reared year to date (55:45), for the 12-month period, 7.8 percent of all poults or 6.6 percent of tom poults (8.8 million) and 9.0 percent of hen poults (12.0 million) were not reared. This is an unsubstantiated estimate with a fluctuating demand for processed toms and hens in a post-COVID affected market. (See relative numbers of hen and tom poults processed under Production Data below).

 

To be updated in mid-September 2021 following release of monthly USDA data

 


 

COMMODITY REPORT

09/02/2021

WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT: September 2nd 2021.

 

  • Commodity prices fluctuated widely this past week but corn and soybeans ended substantially lower reversing the trend of the previous week. Factors influencing prices in either direction included:-
    • Hurricane Ida disrupting exports for at least a month and damaging terminals in Louisiana (marked downward pressure)
    • Release of the August 12th WASDE (limited upward pressure);
    • Results of the ProFarmer crop review (downward pressure)
    • Lower than anticipated export sales especially to China (downward pressure);
    • Moderation of drought in many counties in the corn belt and especially in Iowa (moderate downward pressure);
    • Drought in Brazil causing a low Safrinha (second) crop (upward pressure);
    • Restoration of shipments from Argentina albeit at lower than normal volume (moderate downward pressure);
    • Central government of China attempting to stabilize prices of pork and corn (downward pressure).

Projected harvests and ending stocks in the U.S. were updated in the August 12th WASDE especially since there was greater clarity on acreage and the effects of weather and trade to date on ending stocks. Annual field assessment of crop conditions by ProFarmer scouts was released this past week.

 

 

  • U.S producers are now receiving and conversely livestock producers in the Midwest will pay above $5.20 per bushel for corn and crushers will pay $12.80 per bushel for soybeans plus transport and basis in September. Corn and soybeans were both down 6.5 percent this week for September delivery. Soybean meal was down 5.1 percent for September delivery compared to last week reflecting the decline in the price of soybeans and suspension of exports from lower Mississippi terminals.

 

  • The FAS Export Report released on September 2nd for the week ending August 26th 2021, reflecting market year 2020-2021, confirmed that outstanding export orders for corn for the present market year amounted to 3.32 million metric tons (131 million bushels) with 66.70 million metric tons (2,628 million bushels) actually shipped. During the past week orders for the 2020-2021 market year were cancelled, amounting to 0.30 million metric tons (11.8 million bushels). A total of 0.53 million tons (20.9 million bushels) of corn was shipped. For the new 2021-2022 market year commencing September 1st, 1,16 million metric tons (40.6 million bushels) was ordered this past week with outstanding sales amounting to 20.44 million metric tons (805 million bushels) of new crop corn.

 

  • According to the USDA FAS Export Report released September 2 nd for the week ending August 26th 2021, reflecting market year 2020-2021, outstanding export orders for soybeans amounted to 1.94 million metric tons (71.2 million bushels) with 60.29 million metric tons (2,213 million bushels) actually shipped. Weekly soybean orders attained 0.07 million metric tons (2.6 million bushels) with 0.32 million metric tons (11.8 million bushels) shipped. For the 2021-2022 market year outstanding sales for soybeans amount to 17.8 million metric tons (651 million bushels) with 1.75 million metric tons (64.2 million bushels) sold this past week

 

  • During the past week 17,700 metric tons of soybean meal and cake were ordered, down 71.3 percent from the previous week. The quantity shipped amounted to 188,000 metric tons, 21.8 percent less than the quantity exported during the previous week. For the 2021/2022 market year commencing September 1st, 396,600 metric tons were sold and outstanding sales now amount to 2,058,100 metric tons.

 

The following quotations for delivery in the months as indicated were posted by the CME at close of trading on September 2nd 2021, compared with values posted at close of trading on August 26th 2021 (in parentheses):-

 

COMMODITY

 

Corn (cents per bushel)

Sept. 516 (552)

Dec. 525 (550)

Soybeans (cents per bushel)

Sept. 1,279 (1,368)

Nov. 1,282 (1,326)

Soybean meal ($ per ton)

Sept. 338 (356)

Dec. 340 (356)

 

Changes in the price of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over five trading days this past week were:-

COMMODITY CHANGE FROM PAST WEEK FOR MONTH OF DELIVERY AS INDICATED

 

Corn: Sept. quotation down 36 cent per bushel (-6.5 percent)

Soybeans: Sept. quotation down 89 cents per bushel (-6.5 percent)

Soybean Meal: Sept. quotation down $18 per ton (-5.1 percent )

 

  • For each 10 cent per bushel change in corn:-

The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per pound live weight

 

  • For each $10 per ton change in the price of soybean meal:-

The cost of egg production would change by 0.44 cent per dozen
The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per pound live weight

 

The changes in the prices of corn and soybean meal for September 2 nd compared with August 26th quotations for September delivery would decrease nest-run production cost for eggs by 2.4* cents per dozen and for broilers 1.4* cents per live pound reversing the increase from the previous week .

Year-to-date, escalation in the prices of major ingredients has added 4.2 cents per dozen eggs and 2.6 cents per live-weight lb. to broiler production cost

*(rounded to 0.1cent)


 

Poultry Meat Projection

08/18/2021

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for August 2021.

 

On August 18th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2020 (actual), a projection for 2021 and a forecast for 2022.

 

Broiler RTC production in 2021 was downgraded by 0.1 percent from the July 2021 report to reflect a 0.3 percent increase over 2020 to 20.334 million metric tons RTC (44,734 million lbs.). Per capita consumption in 2021 will be 0.5 percent lower compared to 2020 at 43.5 kg. (95.8 lbs.). Exports should represent 16.8 percent of RTC production in 2021 attaining 3.412 million metric tons (7,506 million lbs.) representing both RTC and feet. The projection for 2022 is for 20.590 million metric tons (45,300 million lbs.) with a per capita consumption of 44.0 kg (96.8 lbs.) and exports of 3.386 million metric tons (7,450 million lbs.).

 

Turkey production for 2021 compared to 2020 was reduced by 1.5 percent to 2.572 million metric tons RTC, (5,659 million lbs.). Per capita consumption is projected at 7.0 kg. (15.4 lb.) in 2021, 0.1 kg lower than 2020 despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2021 is expected to attain to 0.260 million metric tons (573 million lbs.). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2021 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

The USDA provided a long-term forecast for the turkey industry in 2022 comprising annual production of 2,591 million metric tons (5,700 million lbs.) with consumption of 7.0 kg (15.4 lbs.) per capita.

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations. Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2020

(actual)

2021

(forecast)

2022

(projection)

Difference %

2020 to 2021

Broilers

Production (m. metric tons)

20,265

20.334

20.590

+0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

43.7

43.5

44.0

-0.5

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.350

3.412

3.386

+1.9

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.8

16.4

+1.8

Turkeys

Production (m. metric tons)

2.610

2.573

2.591

-1.5

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.2

7.1

7.0

-1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.260

0.260

0.264

0

Proportion of production (%)

10.0

10.3

10.2

+3.0

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released August 18th 2020

 

The projection takes into account forecast exports to 2nd ranked China with imports of 512,587 metric tons of chicken products including feet during 2020 valued at $732 million. During the first half of 2021 China imported 217,020 metric tons of chicken products valued at $391 million.

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #615 August 12th 2021

08/12/2021

OVERVIEW

 

After revision of the July 2021 WASDE by the USDA, their August 12th Report contained numerous changes from the previous month. The August WASDE documented the 2021growing season with no increase in harvest acreage of either corn or soybeans. The USDA ERS will make a subsequent adjustment to the projected ending stock based on crop conditions and weather, export trends and harvests in Brazil and in the Southern hemisphere. The corn acreage to be harvested is currently estimated at 84.5 million acres. Soybeans will be harvested from 86.7 million acres.

 

The August 2021 WASDE estimate of corn yield was lowered 2.7 percent to 174.6 bushels per acre, (175.8 bushels per acre in 2020). The estimate of soybean yield was reduced 1.6 percent to 50.0 bushels per acre. (50.7 bushels per acre in 2020). Yield values will be adjusted subsequently based on weather conditions and crop health.

 

The August 2021 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was reduced by 13.3 percent to 1,242 million bushels based on a proportionately smaller harvest. Despite lower exports and domestic crush the ending stock for soybeans was held at 155 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with fluctuation in exports in accordance with the needs of China rather than compliance by that nation with the Phase-One trade agreement of January 2020. The August 2021 WASDE projection raised the price of corn by 10 cents per bushel to $5.75 per bushel. Soybeans were unchanged at 1,370 cents per bushel.

 

It is accepted that projections are based on the reality that China sharply increased purchases of commodities during the current market year partly to cover low stock caused by COVID-related disruptions in imports during the first quarter of 2020. China booked substantial orders for corn and soybeans from September 2020 onwards for the 2020-2021market year and is placing orders now for the subsequent market year. Reports on volumes of commodities exported to China and other nations are included in weekly editions of CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS as USDA data is released.


 

U.S. Meat Exports

08/07/2021

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-June 2021.

 

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet in January-June 2021 attained 1,856,027 metric tons, 6.8 percent more than the first half of 2020 (1,737,369 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 21.1 percent to $2,136 million ($1,764 million 2020).

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of exports except feet. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

The still uncontrolled outbreak of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 onwards coupled with disruptions in chicken production during January and February 2020 associated with COVID-19, increased demand for protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. This trend is reversing as hog production is restored in China and overproduction is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for 2021 and 2022 exports.

 

During the first six months of 2021 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,876,386 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $2,183 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,163 per metric ton, 13.2 percent higher in unit value than for the corresponding six months of 2020 ($1,027 per metric ton).

 

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-June of 2021 by proportion and unit price for each broiler category compared with the corresponding period of 2020 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-


 

Planted Acreage Report

07/01/2021

The June 30th Planted Acreage report documented the areas planted to corn and soybeans, the two commodities of relevance to the poultry industry. The USDA confirmed-

 

“Corn planted area for all purposes in 2021 is estimated at 92.7 million acres, up 2 percent or 1.87 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 28 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 84.5 million acres, is up 2 percent from last year”. The acreage reported was up 1 million acres from the area included in the June 10th edition of the WASDE. Of the corn varieties planted farmers selected 93 percent as GM, up one percent from 2020.

 

“Soybean planted area for 2021 is estimated at 87.6 million acres, up 5 percent from last year (and 1 million acres above the June 10th edition of the WASDE). Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 28 of the 29 estimating States”. GM varieties represented 95 percent of planted soybeans demonstrating herbicide resistance, up one percent from 2020.

Together with the Grain Stocks report the Planted Acreage data moved the market for both corn and soybeans limit high on the CME after release of the reports since acreage and inventory were lower than expected by industry observers.


 

USDA Grain Stocks Report

07/01/2021

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on June 30th 2021 documented storage of commodities produced in the U.S., classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of corn and soybeans, the two major commodities relevant to poultry production were stated to be:-

 

“Corn stocks in all positions on June 1st 2021 totaled 4.11 billion bushels, down 18 percent from June 1st 2020. Of the total stocks, 1.74 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 39 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.37 billion bushels, are up 11 percent from a year ago. The indicated disappearance March to May 2021 is 3.58 billion bushels, compared with 2.95 billion bushels during the same period last year”.

 

“Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1st 2021 totaled 767 million bushels, down 44 percent from June 1st 2020. On-farm stocks totaled 220 million bushels, down 65 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 547 million bushels, are down 27 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March - May 2021 quarter totaled 795 million bushels, down nine percent from the same period a year earlier”.

 

The Grain Stocks report taken in conjunction with the Planted Acreage report sent both corn and soybeans to limit-up on June 30th on the CME. Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Commodity Report in this edition and will be documented in the mid-month WASDE for July


 

USDA Agricultural Prices Report

12/24/2020

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released November 30th posted October prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

 The USDA ERS detailed prices as follows:-

 

“The October Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 88.8, decreased 0.2 percent from September but increased 3.3 percent from October 2019. At 87.7, the Crop Production Index is down 6.4 percent from last month but up 5.5 percent from October 2019. The Livestock Production Index, at 90.6, increased 7.7 percent from September, but is unchanged from October 2019. Producers received higher prices during October for milk, hogs, market eggs, and broilers but lower prices for potatoes, rice, dry beans, and sunflowers. In addition to prices, the indexes are influenced by the volume change of commodities producers market. In October, there was increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, cotton, and calves and decreased marketing of cattle, milk, broilers, and grapes”.

 

“The October Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 111.1, is up 0.7 percent from September 2020 and 0.6 percent from October 2019. Higher prices in October for complete feeds, feeder pigs, concentrates, and feed grains more than offset lower prices for diesel, other services, gasoline, and wage rates”.

 

Corn farmers received $3.41 per bushel in October 2020 compared to $3.80 per bushel in October 2019, down 11.4 percent.

 

Soybean farmers received $9.24 per bushel in October 2020 compared to $8.35 per bushel in October 2019, up 10.7 percent.

 

Egg farmers received 99.4 cents per dozen for table eggs in October 2020 compared to 66.3 cents per dozen in 2019, up 49.9 percent.

 

Broiler farmers received 31.5 cents per live lb. in October 2020 compared to 41 cents per live lb. in October 2019, down 23.2 percent.


 

 
Copyright © 2021 Simon M. Shane