Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020.

09/18/2020

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on September 17th 2020 for broilers and turkeys covering 2019 (revised), a projection for 2020 and a forecast for 2021.

 

Broiler RTC production in 2020 was revised down by 0.3 percent from the August report to reflect a 1.5 percent increase for 2020 over 2019 to 20.3 million metric tons RTC (44,552 million lbs.). Processing rates in March and April were depressed due to COVID-19 and lower demand. Per capita consumption in 2020 is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in 2019 at 43.2 kg. (95.0 lbs.). This was a 0.4 percent downward revision from the August report. Exports will represent 16.1 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.266 million metric tons (7,186 million lbs.)

 

The projection presumably takes into account exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping attributed to the COVID-19 outbreak restricted exports to China during the first quarter of 2020. China and Hong Kong combined imported 300,672 metric tons of chicken products including feet during the first seven months of 2020.

 

For 2021 RTC production is expected to increase 1.1 percent from 2020 to 20.463 million metric tons, (45,019 million lbs.) with a 0.7 percent increase in per capita consumption to 44.1 kg (97.0 lbs.) Exports are projected to decrease 0.6 percent to 3.25 million metric tons (7,140 million lbs.)

 

Turkey production for 2020 was reduced by 1.9 percent to 2.594 million metric tons RTC, (5,702 million lbs.). Per capita consumption is forecast at 7.2 kg. (15.8 lb.) during 2020, 1.4 percent less than 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 is expected to decline 0.245 million metric tons (539 million lbs.) Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2020 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

USDA does not projects any increase in turkey RTC production in 2021 to attain 2.622 million metric tons (5,770 million lbs.) with proportional decreases in per capita consumption to 7.1 kg (15.7 lbs.) and exports of 252 million metric tons (555 million lbs.)

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND. Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.

Parameter

2019 (revised)

2020

(projection)

2021 Difference %

(forecast) 2019 to 2020

Broilers

Production (m. metric tons)

19.957

20.251

20.463 +1.1

Consumption (kg per capita)

43.1

43.8

44.1 +0.7

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.231

3.266

3.245 -0.6

Proportion of production (%)

16.2

16.1

15.9 -1.2

Turkeys

Production (m. metric tons)

2.644

2.594

2.622 +1.1

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.3

7.2

7.1 -2.7

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.291

0.245

0.252 +2.8

Proportion of production (%)

11.2

9.4

9.6 +2.1

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –September 17th 2020


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #604 September 11th 2020

09/11/2020

OVERVIEW

The September 11th 2020 USDA WASDE Report was updated from the August edition reflecting drought conditions and the August 10th derecho with consequences to corn and soybean harvests. September projections are based on updated estimates of harvest area and yield. The corn acreage to be harvested is currently estimated at 83.5 million acres, down 0.5 million acres from the August 12th WASDE report. Soybeans will be harvested from 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the August WASDE report.

 

The September 2020 WASDE estimate of corn yield was lowered 1.6 percent to 178.5 bushels per acre, (168.0 bushels per acre in 2019). The projection of soybean yield was lowered 2.6 percent to 51.9 bushels per acre. (47.4 bushels per acre in 2019)

 

The September USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was decreased by 9.2 percent to 2,503 million bushels. Due to decreased supply the ending stock for soybeans was reduced by 24.6 percent to 460 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with increased compliance with the Phase-One trade agreement with China. The September WASDE projected the corn price at $3.50 per bushel and soybeans at 925 cents per bushel.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-July 2020.

09/05/2020

Export data for the first seven months of the current year confirmed a 4.2 percent increase in exports of broiler parts including feet, in comparison to January-July 2019. Unit price was unchanged from the corresponding period in 2019 at $1,011. Volume and value both increased by 4.2 percent compared to the first seven months of 2019. There were progressive reductions in value during May (7 percent), June (11 percent) and July (14 percent).

 

Unit price is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of chicken meat exports including feet, with whole birds and specialty products contributing a small proportion to the volume shipped. Leg quarters and feet represent relatively low-value commodities lacking pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

 

The extensive outbreak of African swine fever has boosted U.S. livestock and poultry exports to Asia over the intermediate-term, as all animal protein will rise in price as pork supply is restricted. The effect of increased demand from Viet Nam is apparent but disruption in ports and transport infrastructure due to the COVID-19 outbreak impacted exports to China during January and February 2020.


 

 
Copyright © 2020 Simon M. Shane