Shane Commentary

Bilateral Trade in the Background in Virtual Presidential Meeting


The Monday night virtual discussion between President Biden and his counterpart President Xi was wide-ranging extending over three hours.  Topics reviewed included Taiwan, human rights, and cryptocurrency.  Although the Phase One Trade Agreement of January 2020 was raised, no definitive decisions emerged from the bilateral meeting attended by top advisors and cabinet members on both sides.


It is comforting to observe that at least the leaders of the two nations are talking and that China watchers are parsing and evaluating post-discussion statements by officials in positions of responsibility in China.  Agricultural groups including the American Soybean Association are urging for pressure to be placed on China to comply with the requirements of the Phase One Trade Agreement and negotiating a possible Phase Two Agreement when the current pact expires at the end of 2021.


Statistics estimate that China has only complied with 60 percent of the predicted value of negotiated imports. This is understandable given the slow start to trade in 2020 given COVID lockdowns. In effect, China has exceeded purchases of corn and is close to target on soybeans. 


In a recent interview, U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Katherine Tai counseled for moderation in dealing with China.  As a Mandarin speaker and temporary student in China, she understands some of the concerns expressed by President Xi including the need for recognition as an equal partner in the World economy. China wishes the U.S to be less aggressive on sensitive on "internal issues" such as Hong Kong and the treatment of Uyghurs.  Unfortunately, these concerns will in the short term, take precedence over agricultural trade.


At the end of the day China will purchase what it needs and will continue to pursue policies that are beneficial to their economy.  Requiring them to refrain from industrial espionage, countenancing breaches of cyber security and activities that almost rise to the status of cold-war  tactics will only be resolved, if ever, over the long term.


Chipotle to Establish Environmental Targets


On November 4th Chipotle Mexican Grill announced adoption of the Science Based Targets Initiative to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.


In making the announcement, Lori Schalow, Chief of Corporate Affairs and Food Safety Officer noted, "we are committed to continue improvement and will actively do our part to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and protect the Planet".  These sentiments are obligatory for a company catering to a young educated and environmentally conscious clientele.


To achieve the desired targets, the Company will apply smart-energy management systems in restaurants, will purchase renewable energy and install energy-sparing equipment.  The company will review transportation and warehousing in an attempt to reduce emissions especially for a third-party delivery of meals that represents a growing component of Chipotle revenue.


Of some concern is the intention of Chipotle to "explore protein and animal management solutions and promote carbon-reducing practices".  This implies that Chipotle will either directly or through third party consultants and auditors influence production practices through the supply-chain for ingredients incorporated in Chipotle menus.  Initially it is presumed that Chipotle will concentrate on produce, although meat, poultry and eggs incorporated into menu items will come under scrutiny.


Perhaps the most immediate and achievable component of the program will be to reduce waste and packaging.  When services are available, Chipotle will follow closed-loop packaging, reduce waste and divert from landfills. They could also serve smaller portions benefitting both health of their customers and the environment.


The Science Based Targets initiative comports with an earlier Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) concentration that will among other components have an influence on executive remuneration.


The question remains as to whether the Chipotle announcement and goals are greenwashing or represent a concerted attempt to conform to norms of environmental compliance. Areas of concern include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, conserving water and energy and reducing diversion to landfills. Progress towards the 2030 goal should be documented in regular sustainability reports.


Retailers and Shippers Gearing Up for Christmas Demand


This year has experienced increased demand as COVID restrictions are lifted. Concurrently a suppliers are faced with a shortage of workers, disruption in supply chains, congestion at ports and soaring costs for inland transport. In anticipation of the imbalance between supply and demand, major retailers and shippers have addressed deficiencies in their platforms and resources. 


Amazon is committed to maintaining the supply chain with optimizing safety, speed and efficiency.  Their intent is to “get customers what they want, when they want it, wherever they are this holiday season.” UPS has made similar claims and is determined not to repeat delays experienced in past years.  Target and Walmart are using third party delivery services but are also promoting in-store and curbside pickup linked to E-mail and text orders.


The extent of investment in facilities and human resources to supply anticipated demand is evidenced by a recent Amazon release.  The company announced hiring of 125,000 supply chain employees.  Their contribution will however be limited by lack of experience and the need for training.  The company has opened 250 new fulfillment centers including regional air hubs and delivery stations during 2021 requiring 100 new physical sites established in September.  Amazon, Walmart and Target have chartered vessels to ship products from Asia and are diverting container vessels to ports other than Los Angeles and Long Beach.  Amazon anticipates operating a fleet of over 80 aircraft for distribution in an attempt to match the capabilities of FedEx and UPS.


Improvements in service will depend on technology including updated inventory control systems ordering, tracking and final delivery.  It appears that Walmart may be benefiting from establishing in-house computer technology. Other retailers will benefit from acquisition of high-tech startups.


Progressive and successful U.S. businesses demonstrate flexibility, resourcefulness, planning and coordination at the expense of less efficient competitors.  Let us hope that with declining incidence rates of COVID due to higher rates of vaccination with restoration of our economy that the 2021 Christmas season will provide benefits to shareholders, consumers and workers through high demand for chicken and turkey products.


Continuing Improvement in COVID Statistics


Mackenzie Bean writing in Becker’s Hospital Review, citing data from the Centers for Disease Control for the period ending October 22nd documented the following improvements in COVID statistics:


  • The seven-day case average is now 73,079, a 15.1 percent decrease from the previous week.


  • The seven-day hospitalization average is 6,004 a 10.3 percent drop from the previous week.


  • The current seven-day number of deaths is 1,253 down 4.3 percent from the previous week.


  • Approximately 66 percent of the U.S. population has received one dose of a COVID vaccine (220 million) and 57.2 percent have been fully vaccinated representing 190 million.


  • The seven-day average number of vaccines administered per day was 795,156 as at October 21st This is a 5.5 percent decrease from the previous week, a figure that is less reassuring.


  • The seven-day average for positivity from testing is 5.2 percent down 4.3 percent from the previous week. 


  • The seven-day average test volume for the second week of October was 1.4 million down 7.4 percent from the previous week.


  • Currently genomic analysis confirms that 99 percent of COVID cases are attributed to the Delta variant
  • A CDC model predicts a 20 percent decline in incident cases in the coming four weeks


USDA to Embark on an Initiative to Reduce Salmonella Infections


In an October 19th release, the USDA FSIS announced a comprehensive effort to reduce the incidence rate of infections attributed to Salmonella.  According to Secretary Tom Vilsack, one million cases of salmonellosis occur annually in the U.S. with an estimate of almost a quarter due to contaminated chicken or turkey products.  Vilsack stated, "Today we are taking action to help prevent Salmonella contamination through the poultry supply chain and production system to protect public health".  Previously CHICK-NEWS has commented on the statements by Undersecretary Sandra Eskin relating to extending FSIS involvement to pre-harvest control.  This corresponds to the Vilsack statement that including "production systems". Secretary Eskin considers that "reducing Salmonella infections attributed to poultry is one of the Department's top priorities".


The USDA intends to request the National Advisory Committee for Microbiological Criteria in Foods to advise on how FSIS can apply technology to improve control of salmonellosis.  Implicit in the program is pre-harvest control to reduce the quantum of contamination entering processing plants. The FSIS intends to monitor both the serotypes of Salmonella entering plants and the quantitative and qualitative levels of contamination.


Reference is made to the petition by attorney Bill Marler of Marler Clark, demanding that FSIS declare frequently encountered Salmonella serotypes as adulterants. The FSIS apparently received close to 400 comments on the petition before the May 25th 2020, deadline supporting the petition, Marler cited 26,500 hospitalizations, 420 deaths and 130 outbreaks of salmonellosis annually with a cost ranging from $3 to $7 billion.  It is however acknowledged that only a quarter of the cases of salmonellosis are attributed to poultry meat.  Epidemiologic evidence points to mishandling, under-cooking and deficient kitchen hygiene in both homes and institutions as responsible for infection.


The program contemplated by the USDA-FSIS will require public comment before rule-making.


USDA Awards $10 Million for Research into Cell Cultured Protein


The USDA has awarded $10 Million to Tufts University to establish a National Institute for Cellular Agriculture.  The grant was part of a $146 million investment in sustainable agricultural research.


Professor David Kaplan, an expert in cell cultured meat will head the Institute that will cooperate with scientists at Virginia Tech, Virginia State, University of California-Davis, MIT, and the University of Massachusetts.


The National Center will “integrate research, education, and extension activities to develop innovative technologies and improve outreach and extension activities in cellular agriculture.”


Why the USDA grant?


The Department of Agriculture should be supporting traditional livestock production and developing technology that reduces the environmental footprint of beef, pork, and poultry.  It is evident that many of the USDA “investments in sustainable agricultural research” run counter to the needs of traditional livestock production.


If cell-cultured meat has a future, it is up to venture capital funds, financial institutions and industry to invest in this technology. as in the E.U and Israel.  It is apparent that many of the policies of the present Administration, and specifically the Department of Agriculture, are directed at environmental issues and the policies of the Left to the detriment of traditional agriculture.


USDA Promoting Small-Scale Processing


On October 5th, the USDA announced an additional $100 million in loan guarantees ostensibly to improve the U.S. supply chain with special reference to the meat and poultry sectors. 


In July, the USDA indicated their intention to invest $500 million to expand meat and poultry processing capacity with an additional $150 million to support small and very small facilities that were impacted by COVID restrictions.  The USDA has already dispersed $55 million to improve existing small plants and the Department is reviewing 250 applications requesting $100 million.


In commenting on the support programs, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, stated “As we build back better we must create more better and fairer markets that enhance competition and create economic opportunities across America’s agriculture and food supply chain.”  He added, “This initiative is another meaningful step to act on lessons from COVID-19 to build a food system that is fair, competitive, distributed, and resilient where a greater share of the food dollar goes to those growing, harvesting, processing, and preparing our food.”


The USDA policy of supporting medium and small decentralized plants is supported by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association.  Ethan Lane, VP of Governmental Affairs for the Association, stated “The pandemic accentuated a number of vulnerabilities within our supply chains - chiefly the choke point at the meat packing sector which has resulted in unsustainable prices for cattle producers and increased the cost of beef for consumers.”


It is apparent that the events of March through May of 2020, during which COVID restricted most large pork and beef plants to as little as half the regular output, is now being used as an excuse to restructure the meat industry to the advantage of cattle producers and feeders and to reduce the power of the four largest processors.


With respect to the broiler industry, any shortages on shelves during the second quarter of 2020 were due to panic buying and not to any disruption in supply.  The U.S. chicken industry has developed into an oligopoly in which the top five producers are responsible for about 65 percent of production. Notwithstanding corporate concentration  there are more than 160 plants among 22 states each with an output in excess of 600,000 birds up to 2,500,000 birds per week and operating at a high level of efficiency. As opposed to red meat production the broiler industry is integrated with respect to chick production, grow-out processing, and distribution. This provides security and benefits both to contractors and shareholders and ultimately for consumers.


Vaccine Mandates Preceded COVID


In 1777 General George Washington issued a mandate to vaccinate the Revolutionary Army against smallpox despite an anticipated two percent fatality rate from the crude vaccine used. The preemptive action allowed training to proceed and preserved the readiness of the army to save the United States.  Receiving a smallpox vaccine was both patriotic and a recognized measure to preserve life and prevent the complications of the disease.


Despite legal challenge to vaccine mandates, most states have over the years required school children to be protected against a wide range of diseases. Vaccination has effectively eradicated many childhood diseases in the U.S. The need to continue to vaccinate populations is illustrated by the frequent upsurge in cases of measles as a result of vaccine rejection by various religious sects. In Staphorst a town with a population of 10,000 in the Netherlands experienced an outbreak of poliomyelitis affecting 38 children within a strict Calvinist sect. The outbreak only ceased following compulsory vaccination. The military has for decades imposed vaccine mandates to maintain operational readiness among armed forces deployed to areas where a number of serious infections are prevalent.


The recent round of COVID vaccination mandates issued by the Administration, hospital chains, and commercial firms are justified given the need to protect workers from infection by unvaccinated colleagues.  Vaccine refusal among healthcare workers and those coming into contact with the elderly is unconscionable.  There is no “right to infect” as Justice John Marshall Harlan ruled in 1905 stating that the Constitution did not sanction Americans to behave individually as they chose.  In his ruling dealing with a smallpox vaccine mandate he stated, “Real liberty for all could not exist if people could act regardless of the injury that may be done to others.”


COVID Update


The Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health maintains a dashboard on global and national COVID statistics. Effective September 23rd the CDC reported 42.8 million diagnosed COVID-19 cases. The current 7-day average daily incidence rate is 126,760 but appearing to be trending downwards.  There are currently 89,260 COVID patients in hospital, down from 95,911 in late August.


The CDC has documented 686,346 fatalities. In effect the actual number of COVID deaths probably exceeds 750,000 based on the comparable 2019 mortality rate. Daily mortality that lags incidence is increasing and on September 21st 3,145 fatalities were reported. During the 1918 influenza pandemic, the U.S. with a population of approximately 105 million recorded 675,000 fatalities.


Currently 182 million of our population is fully vaccinated, representing 54.7 percent of the total.  Of this number, 66 percent are adults with approximately 12 million adolescents aged between 12 and 17 years. The respective proportions of vaccine types administered to date comprised 55 percent Pfizer-BioNTech; 37 percent Moderna and 8 percent single-dose J&J. The 7-day average daily vaccination rate is 126,760 down from 150,625 in late August.


As widely reported, most of the hospitalizations and virtually all fatalities are in non-vaccinated patients.  Serious cases of COVID amongst those who were vaccinated are generally confined to the frail elderly and those with underlying health conditions including diabetes, obesity or immunosuppression.  It is noteworthy that a high proportion of incident cases now involve children who are not yet eligible for vaccination and who have returned to school with diverse protective measures of varying intensity including distancing, masking and enhanced ventilation.


There is a clear correlation between low vaccination rates and hospitalization in all areas of the U.S.  States with the lowest vaccine compliance are recording the highest levels of hospitalization including admission to ICU wards.


Epidemiologists and immunologists have evaluated data from the U.K. the U.S. and Israel concerning the desirability of booster doses to enhance protection among those who have received one of the three vaccines available in the U.S.  At a recent meeting the FDA panel deferred on a firm recommendation for boosting of the public in general but did agree that those over 65 and people with immune suppression or conditions that would render them susceptible to the effects of COVID could receive a booster vaccine. On Friday 24th the CDC firmly recommended to the White House that all recipients over 65 years of age and those with immunosuppression and workers with a high risk of exposure to COVID should receive a booster dose six months after their second mRNA vaccine.


At this time the emphasis should be placed on vaccinating those who are hesitant by assuring them of the safety and efficacy of all three vaccines with the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA product having received full FDA approval. It is estimated that 70 million eligible residents of the U.S. have yet to receive their first dose of any of the three vaccines. These individuals, many clustered in rural communities, through disseminating the virus are prolonging the pandemic and delaying recovery of our society and economy. Covid is a public health problem and not a political issue.


China to Resume Beef Imports from Brazil


Following evaluation of the report of two sporadic cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Brazil, China has agreed to resume importing beef.  Consideration of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) protocols relating to spontaneous BSE in old cows apparently resulted in lifting the embargo.  It is expected that trade will resume by September 19th.


China has a capricious history with regard to OIE rules and precedents. Authorities are prepared to resume beef imports from Brazil but continue to embargo pork from Germany as a result of outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) affecting wild boars in limited and confined areas of Saxony and Brandenburg. China banned chicken imports from the U.S allegedly due to the 2015 HPAI epornitic but maintained an embargo for four years notwithstanding their own AI status. During this period China transshipped more than half of the paws consigned to Hong Kong to the Mainland. Under conditions of normal and rational trade relations, the OIE principle of regionalization would allow Germany to export pork to China where ASF is endemic in most hog-producing areas of the Nation.


Effectively China interprets international trade regulations and implements trade policy based on self-interest and protectionism. China is an untrustworthy trade partner. They import commodities only on the basis of opportunity, need and convenience always seeking advantages and where tolerated applying coercion. No supplier can rely on a stable trade relationship with China based on price, quality and conformity with international trade rules. 


North American Meat Institute Reacts to Administration Criticism


Following statements relating to oligopoly in the red meat and poultry industries, the North American Meat Institute has responded publicly defending the current structure of the meat industry.


Mark Dopp, COO of the NAMI stated, "as with almost every industry meat and poultry packers and processors of all sizes have been and continued to be effected by the global pandemic and the inflationary trends that challenge the U.S. economy".


He continued, "American consumers of most goods and services are seeing higher costs largely due to a persistent and widespread labor shortage".  The NAMI stresses that poultry and meat markets are competitive and dynamic that this ultimately benefits consumers.  It is a general impression in the meat industries that certain members of the Administration do not understand the supply and demand factors and how they affect markets.


It is apparent that the Administration is intent on altering the current concentration in red meat packing. Whether this is justified or achievable is questionable. The important question is the possible outcome of injudicious regulations or creating subsidized competition on food security and ultimately availability and the price to consumers.


Instacart Faces Competition in Path to IPO


The August 14th edition of The Economist considered the business prospects of Instacart.  Ms. Fidji Simo originally from France recently left Facebook to assume the position of CEO of Instacart on August 2nd.  Her principal task will be to establish profitability and maintain the goodwill of supermarkets that use the services of the company. It is estimated that Instacart has annual revenue of $1.5 billion and a valuation of $39 billion.  Profitability is yet another issue.


Following the advent of COVID, Instacart gained prominence as the intermediary between supermarkets and customers unwilling to shop in-person.  As the economy opens and brick and mortar receives greater patronage, the role of a delivery service is questioned other than for the homebound.  Price sensitivity is evident attested by growth of Aldi and other deep discounters.  Instacart faces considerable competition from delivery services provided by Shipt owned by Target, Walmart and Amazon Fresh.  DoorDash and Uber Eats have extended their services from meal delivery to groceries. 


Based on her experience with Facebook, Ms. Simo will extend the scope of Instacart to become a “high-margin digital-ads business”.  Ad revenue attained $300 million in 2020 and is growing at a triple-digit rate.  Instacart is also considering robotic warehouses to be installed in collaboration with supermarket partners hence an alliance with Fabric of Israel that has developed technology and installations suitable for integrating supermarket inventory with customer delivery.  This strategy may be too late as a number of supermarket chains are establishing their own platforms and installations including Kroger and Walmart, essentially to compete with Amazon Fresh.


The Prospectus issued in advance of the inevitable Instacart IPO will make interesting reading. The filing will denote the intended future relationship of the Company with respect to supermarkets.


Consumers Accepting Face Mask Mandates


New Hope, a research group has documented a willingness by consumers to wear face coverings in indoor areas.  In late July, 39 percent of respondents indicated a definite intention of remasking.  An August 9th survey indicated an increase in mask compliance to 50 percent.  Conversely, respondents who indicated that they would probably not wear masks dropped from 12 percent to six percent over the two week period.  The change in attitude is attributed to the emergence of the Delta variant and the realization that clinical cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities are increasing sharply, especially in counties and states with a low proportion of the eligible population vaccinated.  Approximately 65 percent of respondents considered that masks should be worn in supermarkets, indoor concerts, and sporting events.  A high proportion of consumers indicated that they were more comfortable in stores with a mask mandate especially for employees and fellow customers.





The FDA approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine has contributed to mandates that will be adopted by the food supply chain from production through processing to retail.  Concurrently in many jurisdictions, state, county, or municipal authorities require masks in public places relieving retailers of the obligation to unilaterally require masks. Enforcement may still be a problem, especially with customers that are opposed to commonsense precautionary measures regarded as a “freedom and individual rights issue” and not simply a public health measure.


U.S. and Mexico to Hold Economic Discussions


According to the August 23rd edition of the USAPEEC MondayLine, officials representing the Government of Mexico and their counterparts in the U.S. Administration will hold talks in Washington on September 9th to address trade and economic issues.  Topics of concern will include maintaining the integrity of supply chains, worker migration and economic cooperation. The agriculture segment of the U.S. is dependent on southern labor and Mexico is the leading importer of U.S. poultry products valued at $465 million during the first half of 2021.


It is now apparent that migrants from Central America might be dissuaded from moving northward to the U.S. if they are able to participate in economic opportunities in Southern Mexico. It is possible that the U.S. will consider establishing maquiladoras in designated areas in Mexico to provide migrants from Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador with some form of economic security and personal safety. Most politicians recognize that constructing an intrusion-proof border with Mexico is both a financial and practical impossibility, despite the rhetoric.  It is now time to consider alternatives that will require the cooperation of our southern neighbor, and advancing humanitarian principles within the scope of the USMCA.



Food Service and Chains Subscribe to Better Chicken Commitment


Welfare activist organization, Compassion in World Farming USA, has announced that Aramark, Compass Group, Nestle USA, Panera Bread, Shake Shack, Sodexo, and Target have formed the Working Group for Broiler Welfare.


This consortium has committed to the Better Chicken Commitment that comprises:

  • Maximum stocking density of 6.0 pounds per square foot
  • Enriched environment including lighting to meet Global Animal Partnership Standards
  • Controlled-atmosphere stun-to-kill
  • Third-party auditing
  • By 2026, slow-growing breeds will be required consistent with the RSPCA Broiler Breed Welfare Assessment Protocol.


These requirements will obviously restrict sourcing to specific producers that are willing to invest in compliance and will incur additional costs.  With the exception of Target, the list of participating companies (“the usual suspects”) are able to pass on additional costs to consumers.  This is especially the situation with the food service companies that supply corporate dining and universities where sentiment is more important than price. 


Target may come to regret their affiliation, especially when slow-growing breeds are required in four and a half years time since they will be at a competitive disadvantage relative to other major supermarket chains.  CHICK-NEWS favors choice with alternatives to conventional products offered at higher prices but with commensurate and factual information to consumers.


The Compassion in World Farming Standards are essentially adopted from E.U. and U.K. specifications that have little scientific justification and are based on sentiment and anthropomorphism. The underlying objective is less “welfare” than outright dismantling of livestock production in favor of a vegan diet.


Argentine Beef Exports Fall


As a result of the injudicious decision by the Government of Argentine to restrict exports, volume fell by 6.6 percent in May 2021 to 55,700 metric tons compared to the corresponding month in 2020.  The ban on exports took effect in mid-May and accordingly June shipments will be considerably lower.  It is estimated that China receives 77 percent of beef shipments exported by Argentine. 


The Government attempted to reduce the price of beef for domestic consumers by imposing a ban on exports to all but a few nations. The unintended result was that abattoirs were closed reducing domestic supply, raising prices and contributing to unemployment. Restricting exports resulted in a substantial reduction in foreign earnings that will further exacerbate the dire economic situation. An example of truly ham-handed management of an economy by a beleaguered socialist Peronista government quickly running out of “someone else’s money” --to quote a pevious  U.K. Prime Minister, Margret Thatcher.


Nature’s Fynd Receives VC Funding


Chicago-based Nature’s Fynd Inc. has raised $158 million from VC companies apparently representing Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Al Gore. These names are quoted (or misquoted) frequently in press reports on wannabee IPOs. Implied endorsement provides a measure of implied approval, verging on the sanctification of any business plan involving sustainability, welfare and even profit. Natures Fynd intend to deliver meatless breakfast patties and burgers based on a range of fungal cultures early in 2022. 


The entire alternative foods sector with an emphasis on dairy products achieved sales of $7 billion in 2020, representing a 27 percent increase over the previous year, albeit from a small base.  Sales of alt. foods should be compared to the $733 billion conventional food industry.  Aware of the growth and popularity of alt. meats, major protein producers including Hormel, Cargill, Perdue, and Maple Leaf Foods have invested in their own brands competing with Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods. 


Considerable publicity is accorded to the adoption of an alt. meat product by a QSR or restaurant chain even if only as a test. In contrast there is less media coverage following the quiet removal of alt. meat menu items. 


Much of the growth in alt. meat products is attributed to the curiosity factor.  Given the low number of committed vegetarians among consumers and the shifting volume of flexitarians, demand will increase, but at a slower rate and nowhere near attainment of a 60 percent market share of global sales of conventional meat by 2040. Projections by some industry observers are simply extrapolations of recent annual increases over the long term.  Alt. meats as with any product undergo life cycles.


A major restraint to future expansion of alt. meat is the apparent lack of profitability.  Reports from public-quoted companies where financial data is disclosed denote a high cost of production and little confirmation of economies of scale in production.


Elimination of Feral Hogs


The emergence of African swine fever in Europe and Asia has highlighted the role of feral hogs in both perpetuating and disseminating infection.  It is estimated that there are more than seven million wild hogs in the U.S. that are collectively responsible for close to $3 billion in damage to crops, fencing and pastureland each year.  If African swine fever were to be introduced into the feral hog population, the U.S. would lose export markets and the cost of control and eradication would be immense.


CHICK-NEWS has reported previously on measures to eliminate hogs on a county and state basis.  Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota now claim to have eliminated their feral hog populations.


It now emerges that hunting although in some cases an effective method of reducing local populations of feral hogs may in fact contribute to the larger problem.  There are documented cases of feral hogs being deliberately introduced into areas where they were previously eliminated to allow sport hunting.  Hog populations are maintained in some states including Oklahoma where hunters pay for the privilege of shooting these animals.


Given the present damage caused by feral hogs and the diseases they carry and their potential to destroy the domestic hog industry in the event of introduction of African swine fever, the USDA and the Department of Interior should cooperate to mount a proactive program with the objective of complete eradication.  The privilege of hunting feral hogs and the income of a limited number of hunting preserves should be sacrificed for the broader objective of preserving domestic hog production.  The U.S. Industry will produce 28,191 million lbs. of pork in 2021 representing a valuable source of protein for domestic consumers estimated to attain 50.8 lbs per capita and foreign exchange earnings through export of 6,570 million lbs. of carcass weight.


E.U. Wasted Funding on Agricultural Subsidies to Modify Climate


A report by the European Court of Auditors released on June 21st confirmed that $140 billion spent on agricultural subsidies to reduce climate change since 2014 was effectively wasted.  The report stated that the Common Agricultural Policy, under which grants were extended to farmers, “failed to support more climate-friendly farming practices.”  The report also stated that “funds distributed during the period 2014-2020 to modify climate change had little impact on agricultural emissions.”


Recent evaluation suggests that the Common Agricultural Policy currently under negotiation must include practical measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  Farming contributes ten percent of E.U. emissions with livestock responsible for half of this release.  To date the Common Agricultural Policy has promoted animal production and subsidies have supported dairy and beef herds.  Shifting subsidies to organic farming has apparently not reduced emissions and funds have increased levels of fertilizer application.  Other deleterious and inadvertent results from Common Agricultural Policy grants include cultivating drained peatlands liberating carbon dioxide that has been sequestered over millennia.


 Developing appropriate agricultural practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will require leadership with the application of science rather than politics that has directed  E.U. policy on agriculture for the past two decades. Experience gained in the E.U could be beneficially adopted in the U.S. in framing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by agriculture.


Colorado Initiative 16 Rejected by State Supreme Court


Two extreme activists in the Boulder, CO. area drafted Initiative #16 that was intended to appear on the 2022 state ballot.  The initiative termed Protect Animals from Unnecessary Suffering and Exploitation (PAUSE) would have effectively shut down the livestock industry in the state.  Provisions included requiring all livestock and poultry slaughtered to have spent a quarter of their "natural lifespan" before slaughter.  The natural lifespan for bovines was defined as 20 years; hogs 15 years; turkeys 10 years and chickens 8 years.  The authors of Initiative #16 included a bizarre definition of "sexual act with an animal" that would have forbidden artificial insemination, intervention at calving and lambing to relieve dystocia and a ban other conventional preventive and therapeutic practices performed by veterinarians and ranchers including neutering of pets


The Colorado Supreme Court rejected the measure on the basis of a violation of the single-subject rule of the Colorado Constitution. In their unanimous opinion, the justices recognized that "the Initiative’s central theme is incorporating livestock into an animal cruelty statute but expanding the definition of "sexual act with an animal" would criminalize additional conduct regardless of whether that conduct is directed at livestock or other animals".


The Pause Act characterizes the deep divide between urban residents and livestock producers.  In Colorado, production and processing contributes more than $5 billion to the state economy and supports 150,000 jobs.  Even though Initiative #16 as currently framed will not appear on the 2022 state ballot, it is evident that opponents of intensive livestock production will continue to propose initiatives to be submitted to voters.  Legislation by ballot incorporated in the constitutions of a number of western states is evidently detrimental with respect to agricultural, environmental and social issues and has the potential to create disruption of existing industries and activities and inflate the cost of food.


UGA Evaluates Drip Trays for Broilers


 Michael Czarick of the Poultry Science Department, University of Georgia recently completed Project F-085 funded by the USPOULTRY Foundation to evaluate drip trays for nipple type drinkers. The study was conducted on a commercial farm comprising three houses each divided into four sections.  Five of the sections were fitted with nipple drinkers with drip trays and five sections with identical nipple drinkers without drip trays as controls. Two sections were equipped with two drinker lines with drip trays and two without. The report did not specify the make or model of the nipple drinkers evaluated.


There were no significant differences in “water usage”, assumed to be the readings of water meters with or without drip trays beneath the nipple drinkers.  Litter from the sections fitted with drip trays had lower moisture content and water activity from day-7 through depletion.  Through the first 21 days of the trial, there were no differences in the prevalence of footpad lesions in flocks that could be attributed to installation of drip trays.  All four flocks without drip trays showed numerically higher (but non-statistically different) footpad lesion scores at 28-days of age.  Despite isolation of Salmonella from litter in preceding flocks, the pathogen was not isolated from drip trays.


The results that appear to favor installation of catch trays should be evaluated in relation to the concepts expressed in an interview with Robert Hosteler of Ziggity Systems posted in this edition of CHICK-NEWS.  Appropriate adjustment of water pressure in relation to the dynamic discharge rate of the nipple drinker line relative to the growth rate of the flock, house temperature and water quality, will determine the proportion of water ingested relative to the quantity of water released from a nipple.  The difference between water delivered and water ingested represents wastage.  Drip trays are intuitively beneficial if the water discharged from a nipple drinker delivers a volume in excess of the capacity of the oral cavity. Water will dribble from the beak opening before being swallowed.  An analogy is the ability to drink from a garden hose on a hot day.  Only a fraction of water released from the nozzle is actually swallowed. 


The observation that Salmonella could not be isolated from drip trays is inconsistent with the fact that bacteriologic assay of the muddy residue in trays invariably indicates heavy bacterial contamination recorded by laboratories as “Too Numerous to Count’ (TNC).  Since broilers display coprophagy, drinking from drip trays should in theory result in ingestion of whatever bacteria are present in the litter.  Installation of drip trays defeats the objective of a closed watering system intended to reduce intra-flock transmission of pathogens.


The conclusion that may be derived from the study is that if nipple drinker watering systems are managed inappropriately or if ventilation rate is too low to remove moisture from litter, drip trays are advantageous.  If nipple drinkers with appropriate dynamic water discharge rates are installed and the system is managed appropriately with respect to water column pressure and house ventilation, drip cups are unnecessary and could be deleterious.


Inappropriate Proximity of CAFOs to Cultivation of Produce and Food Production


The correlation between Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) and contamination of green produce with Shigella-toxin producing E.coli (STEC) grown in the Yuma Valley of Arizona and the Imperial Valley of California has been clearly demonstrated. Contaminated irrigation water is the apparent link between CAFOs and produce.


The CDC and FDA recently investigated an outbreak of Salmonella Enteritidis with peaches as the vehicle of infection.  The Centers for Disease Control diagnosed 101 cases in 17 states.  Traceback suggested a specific peach grower-packer as the source of infection.  The peach orchard is located in an area with a broiler grow-out farm on the northwest boundary and a dairy farm on the east side of the property.


Over 700 samples were examined, including 180 leaves from peach trees, 20 peaches, 480 environmental samples and peach products from three packing and holding facilities. The outbreak strain of SE was not identified in any of the samples.  Salmonella Alachua was isolated from environmental samples and corresponded to surveillance swabs from the broiler farm.  Salmonella Montevideo was common to environmental samples and the dairy farm.


Recommendations from the extensive report suggested that growers should be aware of risks associated with airborne dissemination of pathogens from adjacent CAFOs.  Preventive recommendations should be applied in accordance with the Produce Safety Rule, a component of the Food Safety Modernization Act.  Pre- and post harvest sampling is advised, although sampling in itself does nothing to prevent contamination of the food chain unless appropriate action is taken to interpose a kill-step in processing.  The need for traceability is self-evident given the extent of the distribution of peaches purchased in stores individually or in packs.


The study conducted by the FDA demonstrated the interconnection between livestock production, orchards, packing plants, the distribution system and consumers.  FDA stressed that food safety is a shared responsibility.  Effectively food growers or packers should recognize the possibility (or inevitability?) of contamination of product, either through irrigation water or fugitive dust. Appropriate procedures to suppress potential pathogens are required during packing and before distribution.


U.S. Establishes Strike Force on Unfair Trade Practices


A supply-chain strike force under the leadership of the U.S. Trade Representative, will review critical areas of vulnerability. Initial priorities will include a shortage of computer chips that created bottlenecks in the manufacture of vehicles, availability of medical equipment and PPE during the COVID-19 pandemic, reliance on India and China for pharmaceutical products and rare earths.

Adversaries USTR Tai (left) V-P He (right)

The President ordered a review of critical supply chains in February requesting reports from executive agencies within a hundred days. More detailed analysis and evaluation is anticipated within a year addressing deficiencies in domestic manufacturing with recommend remedial policies.


The Department of Commerce is aware of unfair trade practices from a number of foreign nations.  The 2020 Phase-One Trade Agreement with China incorporated provisions to make progress on reducing government subsidies to quasi-state and corporate entities and coercive transfer of intellectual property.


According to an article in Reuters, the U.S. was not looking to wage a trade war, but the strike force would focus on targeted products.  The Defense Production Act will be used to expedite manufacture of up to a hundred critical drugs and efforts are in progress to re-shore production of computer chips.  A task force will be established to evaluate home building, construction and transportation to reduce the prospect of future inflation. The Department of Commerce considers it necessary to widen the supply chain for crucial products to include allies and partners to reduce reliance on “geopolitical competitors”.


 Establishing a trade war with China could have severe implications on export of agricultural commodities as noted in 2018 and extending in to 2019.  Current importation of soybeans, corn, poultry and meat products by China are a reflection more of domestic need rather than any magnanimity of the part of the world’s second largest economy.  Without extreme pressure, China will not change its trade policies since the nation is committed to dominance in trade in Asia and competition, fair and unfair with the U.S. in all markets, consistent with their national aspirations.


Employers Can Mandate COVID Vaccination


According to a May 28th release by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, (EEOC) employers can mandate COVID vaccination to all employees entering the workplace with certain exemptions. The guidance issued by the EEOC although employers can mandate COVID vaccination, they must provide reasonable accommodation under the Americans with Disabilities Act for those seeking exemptions.  Employers may require unvaccinated employees to wear face covering and to observe social distancing and even receive testing for infection with SARS-CoV-2 responsible for COVID. 


Employers may incentivize employees to be vaccinated provided benefits are not regarded as coercive.  In the process of arranging for vaccination, care must be exercised to maintain confidentiality regarding the medical information relating to all employees especially if an exemption is requested.


Employers can require employees to provide proof of vaccination, but vaccination information must be held in confidence and should not be included in the employee personnel file.


Vaccination is regarded as an exceptionally efficient method of reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the workplace and it is obviously in the interest of the employer, the employee and the community to establish a high level of immunity in the workforce.


As with any vaccination, immune status will wane over time and within a population of workers, introduction of new presumably non-vaccinated individuals will reduce the level of herd immunity.  It is unknown whether booster vaccination will be required at intervals since the response to vaccination that was only initiated in January has yet to be evaluated.  Studies conducted in the EU, Israel and the U.S. suggest that durable immunity persists for at least five months following two doses of either of the approved mRNA vaccines.


UK Considering Ban on Foie Gras


As a component of the proposed U.K. Welfare and Conservation of Animals regulations, a ban would be imposed on the importation and sale of foie gras.  The trade group representing producers maintain that “foie gras is a high-quality product which complies with all EU standards regarding animal health and welfare.” The spurious justifications for perpetuating foie gras production including allusions to the gastrointestinal tract of anseriformes are gross distortions of fact and are unconvincing.


Foie gras production is banned in the Czech Republic, Finland, Italy, Poland, and Turkey.  Production in Britain has been illegal since 2006.  The organization representing producers has adopted the term “assisted feeding” in place of gavage that in essence represents mechanized stuffing of the esophagus and proventriculus of closely confined ducks and geese to induce a pathological fatty liver regarded as a delicacy.


It is seldom that CHICK-NEWS finds common ground with organizations such as Compassion in World Farming.  In the case of foie gras production, we agree with James West, Senior Policy Manager, that “production is immensely cruel and has no place in modern society”.


Government Program to Reduce Mustang Population Backfires


For decades, the Department of the Interior has wrestled with the problem of uncontrolled breeding of mustangs on Federal land.  It is estimated that there are now 100,000 wild horses with every prospect of the population increasing to above 200,000 in the next ten years unless appropriate action is taken.


 In an attempt to reduce the existing population, the Department of the Interior offered a $1,000 incentive payment for individuals willing to receive and care for a mustang.  There was virtually no oversight of the program and many individuals collected their $1,000, taking as many animals as they could transport.  It is now apparent that many mustangs were not relocated but were consigned to an auction where dealers purchased animals to be shipped across the Rio Grande for slaughter in Mexico.  Effectively acquirers of wild mustangs received $1,000 from the Federal government and earned up to $500 from the sale yard. 


This is yet another example of a poorly conceived program with good intentions resulting in a waste of federal funds.  Biologists have recommended applying hormonal reproductive control to suppress estrus by administering commercially available products to mares using dart guns.


Resumption of Traffic on the Mississippi Waterway


The importance of navigability on the Mississippi River was highlighted this past week following temporarily closure due to a structural failure of the Hernando de Soto bridge at Memphis.  The three-day halt of movement imposed by the U.S. coast guard resulted in a backup of more than a thousand barges by late Friday, May 14th.  All traffic over the bridge on I-40 was stopped immediately following the detection of a crack in a major structural beam. Subsequent to an engineering review, it was determined that with the shutdown, the bridge was in no danger of falling into the Mississippi and accordingly barge traffic was resumed although at a slow rate and with appropriate precautions.

Fractured Beam on I-40 Bridge


At Memphis, the Mississippi carries water from the Ohio and Missouri rivers and is critical to transfer corn and soybeans from the Midwest to poultry and swine installations in the southeast and for export.  Rail would be the only viable alternative to barge traffic but would be slower and more expensive.  Repair of the bridge will in all probability be a prolonged exercise and in view of the location of the damaged beam, will incur periodic disruption in barge transport both north and southbound.


Even with restoration of river traffic, there will be adverse effects on the poultry industry.  Transiting from Memphis Tennessee to West Memphis and Arkansas usually requires an eight-minute drive.  The alternative deviation will add eighty-five minutes to the journey imposing costs to the trucking industry estimated at $3 million per day.


Closure of the bridge with uncertainties concerning exports drove down commodity prices on Thursday and Friday but with restoration of barge traffic, prices will respond to normal supply and demand factors.


The de Soto bridge failure illustrates the dependency of the poultry industry on adequate, well-maintained infrastructure. Expenditure on the Interstate highway system and major waterways will be critical to the long-term profitability of the chicken industry.


Poland Facing Severe Avian Influenza and Salmonella Problems


According to recent media and OIE reports, Poland has recorded more than 250 individual outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza.  Over six million birds have been or will have to be depleted as a control measure.  Poland is responsible for the production of 1.3 billion broilers annually representing 20 percent of the E.U. supply of RTC. In previous years avian influenza in the E.U. ceases at the beginning of April but in many nations especially in Eastern Europe, outbreaks have persisted in both backyard and commercial operations.


It would appear that authorities in Poland have not learned from experience in controlling epornitics as experienced in the U.S. in 2015 and subsequently in Western Europe.  Dr. Bodgan Konopki, the Chief Veterinarian of Poland has blamed the severity of the outbreak “on the excessive concentration of poultry farms”.  He is campaigning for regulations to require spacing among farms.  This is an entirely fallacious approach since avian influenza is introduced by free- living birds and spread by deficiencies in biosecurity. Given inherent defects in conceptual biosecurity due to concentration of facilities, the poultry industry in Poland should intensify biosecurity procedures that have proven to be of benefit in areas with a high density of chicken and egg production. There are obvious deficiencies given the incidence rate and the extent and duration of the problem nationally.

Recommendations to improve biosecurity are self-evident.  These include fencing of farms, biological separation of facilities, eliminating ponds adjacent to facilities that attract free-living birds, investment in structural biosecurity and adherence to operational biosecurity. The statement by Dr. Konopki that ultraviolet from sunlight will eliminate virus and hence outbreaks is wishful thinking and is contradicted by experience in the Middle East that does not lack for either sunlight or high temperature.


In past years, Poland has expanded both egg and broiler production but with less than optimal attention to biosecurity as evidenced by persistent SE in both broiler and egg products.  It is possible that the veterinary infrastructure is politicized and reflects the authoritarian policies of successive conservative governments. This is based on the response to the initial diagnosis of COVID in mink released by the University of Cracow. The presence of the infection on mink farms that was refuted by the Department of Agriculture but then was reversed in the face of incontrovertible proof of infection. Lack of control over national and regional programs to suppress Salmonella infection in poultry has seriously impacted the image of Poland as a reliable supplier of wholesome egg and poultry meat following numerous outbreaks of salmonellosis in the E.U. traced back to exporters.


Veterinary authorities in Poland would be well advised to consult with their colleague in the U.S. and Western E.U. nations to implement effective poultry health programs including vaccination that will restore the image of their industry and to provide long-term security for producers.


False Allegation Concerning Meat Consumption Belatedly Withdrawn


Recently Fox News and other media within the Murdoch enterprise reported that it was the intent of the Biden Administration to mandate a reduction in meat consumption. A retraction was made by individual commentators on the Fox News channel after the reports were fact checked by competing media and following a sharp denial from the White House.  The false report was subsequently amplified by both politicians and their supporters.  Only a few television reporters on the channel concerned have actually retracted their false statements and some politicians are continuing to knowingly disseminate incorrect and baseless messages using social media.


The origin of the misinformation was a cooperative study by academics at the University of Michigan and Tulane University, who investigated the potential environmental impact of restricting consumption of red meat. There is no question that climate change and sustainability have received considerable attention since the change in Administration.  This is a time for review of established scientific data that represents the consensus of responsible investigators.  A number of universities and government agencies are considering models that will indicate the outcome of various policy decisions. 


Premature release of data and fabrication of reports do not help understanding. False and sensational releases may increase ratings but they inflame public opinion to the detriment of sound policy based on bipartisan consensus.  Unfortunately politicians and the public they serve have adopted inflexible positions on climate change. Opinions range from “It’s just a big hoax” to “Unless we all go vegan, we fry”.  There has to be a science-based compromise with a clear plan going forward to reduce greenhouse emissions and to use clean energy.  To avoid disrupting the economy of the U.S. and the remainder of the world, any transition will have to be made gradually. The sooner we start the easier it will be for our grandchildren and their issue.  Floating blatant lies and misrepresentations for short-term political gain is decidedly unhelpful and intensifies both political and global temperature.



Mechanization and Automation to Reduce COVID and Future Pandemics in Packing Plants


Red meat and even poultry processing plants contribute to infection of COVID and other airborne viral infections due to close proximity of workers, high humidity, low temperature, and minimal ventilation rates. The design of U.S. plants and equipment installed was previously predicated on the availability of inexpensive labor.  European producers do not have the luxury of an infinite supply of workers, even though temporary immigrant labor is used in some nations including Germany.


A recent article evaluating morbidity and mortality in U.S. meat packing plants and communities in which they are located demonstrated the low impact of poultry plants compared to beef and pork facilities.  It was calculated that within 150 days after emergence of COVID-19 in a given county, a beef plant increased per capita infection rates in the community by 110 percent and in the case of pork plants by 160 percent.  In contrast, the presence of a large poultry processing plant in a county only increased infection rates by 20 percent. The study documented that collectively 334,000 COVID-19 infections were attributable to meat packing plants with mortality and morbidity costs attaining $11.2 billion.


Advanced mechanized broiler-portioning installation

The authors note that lost productivity in pork plants attained $336 million, beef, $186 million, and for poultry $40 million. The relatively lower impact associated with poultry processing relates to a higher level of mechanization compared to red meat packing plants.  A worthwhile extension of the study would be to examine modern poultry plants with controlled atmosphere stun to kill, automated evisceration lines and mechanical portioning and deboning compared to older facilities requiring a high level of manual labor in all departments.


The positive effect of mechanization, even in hog plants is illustrated by the difference between the Horsens plant operated by Danish Crown that recorded a low rate of infection compared to the sister Ringsted plant where 142 out of approximately 600 employees tested positive for COVID-19 during the height of the outbreak in Denmark.  The Ringsted plant was also associated with a high rate of community transmission during March and April 2020.  The Horsens plant recorded less than 10 cases among 8,000 employees and the plant functioned without interruption through the entire first quarter of 2020.


Robotics installed in Danish Crown Plant

The Horsens plant is the most modern in the world using infrared laser-guided robots to make cuts including the critical tail cut.  Machine-vision guided robots continue dismemberment completing the task that would otherwise be carried out manually by many workers in a plant processing 18,000 hogs each eight-hour shift.


To date, capital investment has been evaluated against the availability and cost of labor.  With increased pressure for wages and benefits, unionization, a more active OSHA and greater concern for worker welfare and health, processors must reevaluate the cost of mechanization and automation.  In August, CHICK-NEWS commented “It is axiomatic that robots are refractory to disease, do not take holidays or sick leave, never participate in strikes or agitate to join unions, and have immense physical strength and dexterity compared to human labor. It is unfortunate that it has taken COVID to force a reevaluation of the human component in relation to available alternatives in meat and poultry processing.  COVID will not be the last viral pandemic and this reality and the obvious costs involved should result in a phase shift in processing similar to the changes brought about after publication of The Jungle by Upton Sinclair.”


Saitone, T., Schaefer, Aleks, and Scheitrum, D. COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality in U.S. Meat Packing Counties. Food Policy


Plant-Based Meat Sales Rising-For Now!


The Plant Based Foods Association (PBFA) recently published data relating to sales of alt-meat.  Value increased by 45 percent from 2019 to $1.4 billion in 2020.  The PBFA maintains that plant based meat represents 2.7 percent of retail packaged meat, but this figure ignores the consumption of food service.  It is claimed that 22 million households purchase plant-based meat without an indication of the frequency of repeat buying. Although comparisons of growth rates for alt-meat appear exceptional when compared to conventional meat, the low base of a relatively immature product should be recognized.


The release from the PBFA notes the number of producing companies and their activities suggesting extreme competition.  This is probably the justification for successive price cuts by Impossible Foods to levels which still exceed ground beef and in some stores by a factor of two.  It is a matter of record that the bellwether alt-meat producers, including the Maple Leaf Foods and Beyond Meat are historically and currently non-profitable and the alt-meat industry is heavily subsidized by infusion of venture capital.


Despite the claims of equivalent organoleptic properties including taste, texture, and color compared to store-purchased ground beef patties and sausages, the real criterion is whether consumers can differentiate between alt-meat and real meat when cooked.  Given quality issues, availability, and above all relative cost, future growth rates will be a more reliable indicator of the acceptance of alt-meat beyond the demographic of vegetarians, curious omnivores and those with extreme environmental and sustainability concerns. 


Impossible Foods Launches National Advertising Campaign


Impossible Foods will launch an intensive TV campaign to encourage traditional consumers of meat to switch to the Company’s vegetable-based alternatives.  The program will be entitled “We are Meat” and will feature the Impossible Burger in five spots.


In commenting on the campaign Jessie Becker, Senior Vice President of Marketing stated, “Once people try Impossible Burger they are blown away by its taste although consumers are skeptical based on years of sub-par experiences with conventional, plant-based products.”


Click here for video

Competition among alt-Meat Brands

The campaign is obviously an attempt to increase sales and follows successive price reductions, although Impossible Foods products still exceed the price of ground beef at retail.  It is possible that Impossible Foods and other alt-meat producers are experiencing saturation of the vegetarian demographic and have yet to generate repeat sales among conventional meat eaters who represent the bulk of the U.S. consumers.


Impossible Burger has increased its penetration of the retail distribution channel with most major supermarkets stocking their burgers and sausages.  A review of display counters in supermarkets confirms extreme competition with both local and national brands presented.

Dr. Patrick O. Brown, founder of Impossible Foods claims that substitution of real meat can be achieved without compromising taste, nutrition or convenience.  This commentator will accept some benefits relating to sustainability and the environment but consumers can appreciate the difference between real meat and vegetable-based alternatives. The wide range of available beef, pork and poultry presentations provide variety and a wide choice for home-cooked meals. Alt- meat presently only competes with ground beef.


Dr. Brown, Impossible Foods products are not “meat” despite the intent of the TV spots and the creativity of Weiden + Kennedy.  The advertising campaign claiming equivalence with real meat will only stimulate additional restrictive legislation on labeling, onerous litigation and will generate unflattering comparisons with the “real thing”.



Corporations in Brazil Concerned over Government Policy for the Amazon


Given that 60 percent of the remaining Amazon is within Brazil, policies regarding deforestation and use of land bordering the Rainforest are now of international concern. Forty chief executives of major corporations in Brazil, including JBS S.A., recently addressed a letter to President Jair Bolsonaro regarding the potential for trade embargoes as a result of current exploitation of the Amazon. 


Despite the cooperation between CEOs and leading academics in Brazil under the umbrella of the Concertacao pela Amazonia (Agreement on the Amazon), no constructive response has been received from Brazilia, the Nation’s capital.  Talks at a level below the Office of the President are in progress between Ambassador John Kerry, former U.S. Secretary of State and now Climate Envoy and Ernesto Araujo, Foreign Minister, and Ricardo Salles, the Environment Minister.

Pres. Jair Bolsonaro


When the Paris Accords were signed in 2016, Brazil was an active participant and received donations from E.U. countries to sustain the Amazon.  Since the ascendency of President Bolsonaro, deforestation has advanced at a rapid rate as evidenced by mass clearing of fringe areas accompanied by devastating fires and a profound reduction in enforcement of existing regulations.


The concern that the U.K. and the E.U. will pressure companies importing food and other items from Brazil to conform to world standards is evidenced in the recent comments by Fabio Tomasoni, Global CEO of JBS S.A. in the FY 2020 Annual Report, regarding sustainability and sourcing of beef.


The status of the Amazon will most certainly take center stage at the Earth Day Summit of world leaders in April serving as a prelude to the United Nations Summit in November. Given the economic situation in Brazil, the President will have to choose between world opinion relating to climate change and his personal popularity as a right-leaning nationalistic leader of Brazil.


Contentious Bilateral China-U.S. Talks in Alaska


The U.S. State Department will be taking a strong line with China over structural and political issues based on the first day of bilateral talks in Alaska. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that the U.S. and China could achieve many things together where their interests converge. The U.S. would however continue to express concerns and act over actions by China including repression of Uyghurs in Xingjian Province, suppressing democracy in Hong Kong, cyber attacks on the U.S., economic coercion and threats to the independence of Taiwan. 

Antony Blinken Secretary of State


Blinken was supported by Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, who criticized both military and economic coercion by China. He noted that U.S. echoed the concerns of Asian nations including Japan and South Korea.  Sullivan noted, “We do not seek conflict but we will welcome stiff competition but we will always stand up for our principles, for our people and for our friends.” Based on a policy of creating harmony among allies, the present Administration intends to create a consensus and to unify opposition to what must be regarded as aggressive and coercive actions by China.


At the end of the day trade relations between China and the U.S. will be based on the principle of mutual satisfaction.  Since China needs corn, soy and other commodities and will import them from the U.S. and our competitors, we should continue to supply but should use whatever leverage we have to eliminate the undesirable aspects of our relationship with China. These include unfair trade practices, cyber espionage, neglect of intellectual property and support of government-owned companies that dump products on international markets in defiance of WTO rules. 

Confining military expansion and suppression of democracy are issues beyond the concern of U.S. agribusiness but obviously are factors influencing commodity trade. Let us hope that Antony Blinken and Katharine Tai, the U.S. Trade representative have more success in dealing with the Communist government of China than previous administrations.


American Chemical Society Webinar on Alt-Meat


A webinar organized by the American Chemical Society on March 11th was disappointing in both content and perspective.  Compared by Chris Gregson of Greenstalk Foods, none of the participants was actively involved in production or marketing of either a vegetable-based meat substitute or a cell-cultured product.  Many of the comments by the participants were basically a restatment of the obvious.  We are all aware that motivation by consumers to purchase alternatives to real meat include misperceptions over health, environmental considerations, welfare concerns, and a new angle, freedom from antibiotic resistant pathogens. 


Julie Mann of Puris Holdings, herself a vegan, considers that ultimately alt-meat will eliminate the need for livestock, a claim made 15 years ago by Josh Tetrick when he launched the first of his alt-egg ventures with HSUS support.  Andrew Ive of Big Idea Ventures claims to have funded 43 companies and his focus concerns the economics of alt-meat.  The issue that he studiously avoided is that publicly quoted companies involved in vegetable-based meat substitutes are reporting losses. Beyond Meat and the Vegetable Protein segment of Maple Leaf Foods have yet to come close to breaking even despite immense investment and increasing production levels. 


Andrew Ive did however note that vegetable based products gained consumer acceptance when moved from vegan sections in supermarkets to meat coolers.  Ive notes that producers of vegetable-based products are improving product presentation and innovation is apparent as major processing companies use equipment and additives respectively devised by Buhler of Switzerland and Givaudan of France.  Ive believes that progress will be made by combining the aspirations of entrepreneurs with technology.


Joshua March of Artmys Foods stressed quality issues in relation to vegetable-based alternatives.  To date alt-meat products do not reproduce the organoleptic qualities of real meat with respect to taste, texture and appearance, both raw and cooked.  March also questions the nutritional content of vegetable-based meats.  While conceding the absence of cholesterol and possibly contaminants, alt-meat is more “processed” than conventional meat.


The status of cell cultured meat was glossed over although there has been considerable progress by companies in Israel including Aleph Farms, Future Meat Technologies, Biofood Systems, and Super Meat.  Again, the ACS panel while acknowledging technical progress failed to address the large differential in cost of production between cell cultured and conventional meat.


Recently, Singapore has emerged as a champion of alternatives to meat. This is partly due to the fact that the Government of the city-nation recognized that 90 percent of their food is imported and they recognize their vulnerability especially with regard to protein.  Accordingly, regulations to allow the manufacture and sale of cell-cultured meat were hastily enacted.  Josh Tetrick appears to have taken advantage of a favorable regulatory climate and claims to be serving a cell- derived chicken substitute in a restaurant in Singapore.  From comments by Andrew Ive, it is apparent that the product is in fact a vegetable-based meat alternative with inclusion of some cell-cultured material without specifying the relative volumes of vegetable and cell-derived components.  Contrary to the transparency demonstrated by Memphis Meats in the U.S. and developers in both Israel and the E.U., Tetrick has never revealed details of his production process nor has he identified or provided images of his production facilities.


The ACS Webinar was less than informative, possibly due to the selection of participants who appear to have either aspirational or investment approaches to alt-meat. Presenters with actual real-world experience in production and marketing would have contributed to a more enlightening program.


Broiler Production in Brazil-Lessons for the U.S?


USDA-FAS GAIN report on Brazil, BR2021-0069, dated February 26th projected 2021 broiler production in Brazil.  For the market year beginning January, USDA projects total production at 14.150 million metric tons, 1.9 percent higher than in 2020.  Projected exports will be 3.905 million metric tons up 4.3 percent from 2020 and representing 27.5 percent of production. 


During 2020, Brazil exported 3.741 million metric tons valued at $5.2 billion with a unit price of $1,390 per metric ton.  By comparison, the U.S. exported 3.577 million metric tons valued at $3.56 billion with an average unit value of $995 per metric ton.  The U.S. figure includes both bone-in chicken and feet since the USDA elected to combine the two products from April 2020 onwards.  Figures for volume and value from Brazil exclude feet and represent 26 percent of all world chicken exports. 


Domestic consumption in Brazil will attain 10.25 million metric tons up 1.1 percent from 2020 and corresponding to a per capita consumption of 106 pounds, based on a consuming population of 213 million.  The increase in domestic consumption occurred despite a 15 percent increase in retail price of chicken during 2020. Chicken increased at a disproportionately lower rate compared to beef, the major source of animal protein. 


Forecasts for 2021, take into account, the increased costs of ingredients.  In January 2021, corn averaged $230 per ton and soybean meal was $370 per ton.  Increases in production cost for chicken through 2020 were reflected as a progressive escalation through the year with a December value of 34 cents per lb. compared to 24 cents per lb. in December 2019.  The average retail price for frozen chicken in 2020 was 41 cents per lb.


Brazilian chicken comprised 22 percent of import volume by China during 2020 amounting to 3.99 million metric tons valued at $5.73 at a unit price of $1,436.  The large demand by China for pork and chicken was occasioned by the ongoing losses due to African swine fever commencing in late 2018 and extending through 2019 and 2020 as herds were being restored.  Demand by China, Saudi Arabia and Japan has led to expansion in production dedicated to the export market.  Currently Brazil has 46 plants authorized to export chicken meat to China and the Middle East, concentrated in the five major producing states.  A specific market for Brazil is the supply of halal chicken with Indonesia now regarded as a potential large-scale importer.  Exports during 2020 were supported by continuing outbreaks of H5N8 avian influenza in the EU, Eurasia and Southeast Asia.


In comparing exports both with respect to volume and unit price, it is evident that Brazil can offer importers specific products suitable to their demand.  This includes carcasses consigned in narrow weight ranges from 1.0 kg at 0.1 kg increments to 1.5 kg.


 In addition to WOGs, bulk parts and added-value products Brazil offers halal, non-GMO, antibiotic-free and other categories.  In contrast, the degree in product differentiation from the U.S. extends simply from right to left leg quarters.  The U.S. is essentially selling a commodity on price with 95 percent shipped as frozen bulk quarters in addition to feet, which despite a far lower nutritional value, enigmatically command a higher price than dark bone-in meat. If the U.S has aspirations of increasing the proportion of exports of RTC from 16 percent of output and attaining unit prices and levels approaching Brazil, Thailand and individual producers in the Ukraine, an importer-oriented approach to specific needs will be necessary. This implies dedicated complexes with nutritional programs, harvest weights, processing and presentation consistent with the frequently narrow specifications of importing nations.   


Push to Vaccinate Meat Packing Plant Workers


Following the lead of Foster Farms and Perdue Farms, having initiated COVID vaccination of workers in their plants, JBS USA and Pilgrim’s Pride will vaccinate employees in nine major locations in eight states where vaccine will be made available.  In some plants, large-scale vaccination clinics will administer vaccine, but in other locations limitations on availability of vaccines and State policy on priority will result in inevitable mosaics of immunity in a given facility which is undesirable. 


Tyson Foods intends extending vaccination to as many 15,000 employees in Iowa during the first week of March.  Cargill is also administering vaccines to workers.  Smithfield Foods is awaiting vaccine for the Sioux Falls, SD. plant where more than a third of the 3,700 employees tested positive for the virus by mid-June 2020. Vaccination in large plants may only be completed by late April.


It is considered imperative that workers in meat packing plants and poultry processing facilities should be vaccinated given their proximity on processing lines and in cafeterias and change areas.  Associations representing the livestock industry have actively promoted vaccination for plant workers given their vulnerability and their impact on communities in which large plants are located.


U.K. Food Standards Agency Warns Over Raw Breaded Chicken Products


In the face of two consecutive outbreaks of salmonellosis, the Food Standards Agency of the U.K. along with Public Health England in collaboration with health authorities in Scotland and Wales have warned consumers of the dangers of undercooked raw breaded chicken products including nuggets. 


Consumers are apparently not following cooking instructions and in many cases are warming raw breaded products in a microwave allowing survival of Salmonella and other pathogens.


In 2019, extensive outbreaks of salmonellosis were attributed to consuming inadequately cooked breaded chicken products in Canada.  Given the risks involved it is questioned whether any producer should market raw breaded chicken products irrespective of label instructions and cautions.


Adequate Ventilation Critical to Suppressing COVID Infection


COVID is transmitted readily by inhalation of contaminated aerosol droplets.  Studies have shown that stagnant air facilitates infection especially in high-risk locations such as meat packing plants, school rooms, entertainment venues and prisons. Studies at the Tönnies plant in Germany demonstrated that deficiencies in air movement contributed to a high rate of infection that was resolved only following modification of the air handling and filtration installations.


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued guidelines for reopening schools that apparently have not specified enhanced ventilation to complement masking and distancing.  Infectious disease specialists have urged the Administration to include enhanced ventilation rates in advisories following the lead of the World Health Organization.


Dry hydrogen peroxide generators can be installed in confined spaces to continuously decontaminate air, destroying both viral and bacterial pathogens.  For information on these installations click onto the Synexis logo on the right side of the welcome page.


Progress in Suppressing COVID-19


It is evident that there is an improvement in both the incidence and hospitalization rates for COVID-19. This follows the January surge reflecting injudicious travel, gatherings and a neglect of precautions over the late December holiday period. Statistics as of Monday 15th February include:-


  • Incident cases have been declined to 65,000 per day as of Saturday 13th representing a 39 percent decline on the basis of a seven-day rolling average.


  • The positive rate on COVID testing has dropped to 6 percent from approximately 13 percent in mid-January.


  • Daily deaths still are in the region of 3,000 per day but mortality is a lagging indicator.
  • Hospitalizations have declined to 67,000 with 14,000 under ICU care.


  • 70 million doses of COVID vaccine have been delivered to states.

  • 52 million vaccines have been administered with a daily rate increasing to 2.2 million for Saturday and Sunday 13th, 14th, February. Considerable disruption has been caused by extreme weather over a broad area of the U.S.


  • To date in the U.S. there have been 27.6 million confirmed cases with 485,000 fatalities recorded.


  • The CDC recommends reopening of schools with appropriate precautionary measures.


  • On a cautionary note, public health authorities have warned of the increase in variant isolates including the U.K. B. identified in 40 states in addition to domestic variants arising by mutation.


U.S. Trade Representative 2020 Report to Congress on China


The 2020 report to Congress on China trade policy was compiled and submitted by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).  Following accession of China to the World Trade Organization, there was an expectation that the Nation would adhere to international rules.  China failed to comply with an anticipated change in policy to pursue a market-oriented approach to trade.  In contrast, China intensified state-owned manufacture, followed coercive policies on investment, engaged in corporate espionage, ignored intellectual property rights, pursued central control of the economy and engaged in currency manipulation.  Unfair competition was evident in predatory pricing of steel, aluminum and solar panels collectively distorting trade to the detriment of the economies of trading nations.


The U.S. alone or in combination with other members of the WTO resorted to available measures including tariffs, bilateral negotiations and litigation in an attempt to restrain nonconforming practices exercised by China.


Following the Phase One trade agreement concluded in mid-January 2020, the USTR considers that there is evidence that China is moving forward “in good faith with the implementation of its commitments.”  Issues that have yet to be resolved include state subsidies, maintaining excess capacity in state-owned enterprises, illegal cyber-acquisition of intellectual property and lack of regulatory transparency. The USTR believes that negotiation should continue for a Phase -Two agreement.  Concurrently restructuring of the WTO is underway and should result in more rapid resolution of conflicts possibly restraining China.


It remains to be seen whether the Biden Administration with Amb. Katherine Tai as the USTR will be able to make progress in curbing the excesses of China.  This will require the support of major industrialized nations since cooperation was not considered a priority during the tenure of her predecessor, Robert Lighthizer. He followed a more isolationist approach to world trade, relying on tariffs and where indicated or not, bluster from Presidential Advisor and Sinophobe, Dr. Peter Navarro.


Vaccine Stockpiling, A Prudent Precaution


Following the 2019 re-emergence of Ebolavirus infection in central Africa, a vaccine was developed that proved effective in controlling an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo requiring immunization of 300,000 people.


International health organizations headed by vaccine provider GAVI with the support of WHO and UNICEF have now stockpiled 500,000 doses of the Ervebo vaccine manufactured by MSD in Kenya.  Studies showed that the vaccine was 97 percent effective against Ebola an infection that has a fatality rate in excess of 50 percent.

Eradication of foot and mouth disease U.K.

The Ministry of Health in Kenya that will be responsible for maintaining the inventory of Ebola vaccine has developed a rapid response team encompassing laboratory diagnostic specialists and members with experience in logistics and delivery of vaccines.  The Ministry has a total workforce of 229 staff deployed at various points of entry into Kenya and has designated 21 Ebola specialists to be activated in the event of an outbreak that is almost inevitable.


The decision to maintain an inventory of vaccines and to train responders is justified by the high mortality and social disruption caused by the disease.  Selected first responders in the U.S. have received the vaccine and have developed contingency plans following the 11 cases in the U.S. in 2014 comprising seven medically evacuated personnel and four contact cases.


The principle of stockpiling vaccines against both human and livestock diseases should be a major consideration with the respect to exotic infections many of which have catastrophic consequences following introduction into naive populations.  Unfortunately, stockpiles cost money to acquire and to maintain and inevitably must be replenished as a result of aging.


The slow pace of administration of available COVID vaccine demonstrates the need for planning, distribution and administration to populations, herds and flocks.  Fortunately, in the case of livestock, they are generally concentrated on farms and in limited geographic areas facilitating administration.  Fortunately, animals and birds do not have access to the internet and do not have prejudices regarding political, religious and social concerns and are easy and available recipients. Avian Influenza H5 and H7, Foot and Mouth disease and when available African swine fever are obvious candidates with funds allocated for Foot and Mouth disease.


Walmart to Expand their Growing Healthcare Presence in the U.S.


Walmart is emerging as a leader in providing routine healthcare to the U.S. population.  Primary care clinics within supermarkets are well established.  These compete with similar kiosk operations operated by CVS Health and Walgreens among others.  The initial phase of COVID-19 vaccination has probably accelerated the move to commercialized and depersonalized medicine. 


It remains to be seen whether a retail company can capitalize on low-hanging fruit, leaving the established medical infrastructure to carry the burden of treating serious acute and chronic conditions and providing a standard of service consistent with scientific progress.  Diverting patients and revenue from hospitals and group practices will weaken the core of our systems providing medical services.


The move to “supermarket medicine” will reduce opportunities to train our future physicians and specialists.  Weakening the hospital system will provide fewer opportunities for clinical research and progress in treatment will be constrained.  Our current system is less than perfect but it is better than socialized medicine as offered by other nations.  We should honestly recognize the deficiencies that exist and make changes to eliminate discrepancies in service and opportunities between rich and poor.


As with many aspects of our life Medicine is too important to be politicized.  Let us hope that we find solutions to our problems and as with most challenges, face them with a sense of purpose to resolve deficiencies.


There are far too many uninsured in our nation and we are failing to provide preventive health counseling, vaccinations and activities that contribute to a healthy nation.  For-profit clinics are not the answer although they may contribute to overcrowding of ER rooms during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and may have a role in developing a new model to accommodate the underserved.



Legislators Consider a Bill to Ban Wildlife Wet Markets


U.S. Representatives Mike Quigley (D-IL) and Fred Upton (R-MI) and Senators Cory Booker (D-NJ) and John Cornyn (R-TX) have introduced bills respectively in the House and Senate intended to close commercial wildlife markets and end trade in live wildlife for human consumption.  The Preventing Future Pandemics Act is based on the certainty that continued trade and consumption of wildlife will inevitably result in the emergence of a pathogenic virus with pandemic potential.


Rep. Quigley stated “The Preventing Future Pandemics Act takes aim at wildlife markets and the trade that supplies them, positioning America as the global leader in replacing wild protein sources with safe alternatives and fighting to ensure that nothing like the COVID-19 pandemic happens again.”


The Preventing Future Pandemics Act would end the import, export and sale of live wildlife for human consumption in the United States and be part of U.S. foreign policy directing the U.S. State Department to collaborate with international partners to close commercial wildlife markets and end trade in food products derived from wildlife.


It is known that certain strains of avian influenza can infect humans.  Accordingly, it is not just wildlife with the potential for emergence of zoonotic diseases.  The possibility exists in many major cities in the U.S. where ethnic minorities support live animal and bird markets.  There is virtually no consumption of wildlife purchased in commercial markets in the U.S. other than domestic venison. We do not consume the variety of species including reptiles, birds, and mammals as in China and other Asian nations. Neither do we consume “bush meat” as in Africa. We do however live with a potential hazard in the form of urban wet markets, which are an anachronism in the U.S. during the 21st Century. These establishments, however strictly monitored at state expense, represent a hazard with respect to foodborne disease and a potential future problem in relation to adaptation of pathogens from domestic livestock and poultry to humans as asusceptible host.


USDA to Finalize Line-Speed Rule Despite Unsubstantiated Opposition


After many years of implementation, surveillance and evaluation in 54 plants, the USDA intends to finalize the rule that would allow line speeds in suitably equipped and managed plants to increase from 140 to 175 birds per minute. Studies have shown that increased line speed has not resulted in any deterioration in food safety or quality. In a January 4th article in the Washington Post, opposed the more extensive application of increased line speed based on a number of canards and misrepresentations.


The latest justification to oppose the 175 birds per minute rate is the prevalence of COVID-19 in "meat plants".  The Washington Post article cited a Food, Environmental Reporting Network (FERN) report as the basis for their concern. The FERN report documented results from 1,262 plants of which 565 were classified as "meat packing" recording 51,688 cases of COVID-19 with 263 fatalities.


A review of the source document notes that there was no distinction between poultry-processing plants and meat-packing plants affected by COVID.  In an attempt to differentiate between the red meat and poultry facilities, data on two major integrators, totally committed to chicken processing were extracted from the globular data in the FERN report.  The first company in the top-five identified six cases in their Texas chicken plant and 94 in their North Carolina chicken plant.  A second top-five company recorded 98 cases in a North Carolina plant, 256 in Minnesota and 283 in Arkansas.


Raw data is misleading since comparisons can only be based on rates.  Without knowing the total compliment of workers, supervisors, and managers in each plant, it is impossible to differentiate among companies, type of plant, location or size of operation.


Tom Super, VP of Communications for the National Chicken Council noted that the line speed rule has been under consideration for three decades and over four administrations and has been the subject of considerable scientific study and litigation.  Increasing line speed is consistent with higher levels of automation and mechanization as developed in the EU and applied on four continents.  Increased mechanization reduces the need for workers and increased line speed justifies a capital investment in improved technology.  Innovations including increased line speed in conjunction with HIMP will be necessary for the U.S. chicken industry to be competitive in world markets and to continue delivering wholesome chicken to domestic consumers.  Conflating chicken plants with red meat plants without clear differentiation is essentially sophistry. To misapply data to oppose a progressive development is disingenuous.


China Bans Imports of Irish Poultry Products


Following an outbreak of H5N8 strain avian influenza in a small free-range flock in County Wicklow on December 12th, China has banned all imports from Ireland.  The localized case was preceded on November 8th by isolation of H5N8 virus from a dead peregrine falcon in County Limerick.


Ireland along with ten other E.U. nations has experienced outbreaks of H5N8 predominately in free-range flocks of chickens, turkeys and waterfowl.  Cases diagnosed from October onwards are attributed to shedding of virus by migratory waterfowl.


China has no justification to ban imports from the entire nation of Ireland given that the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) allows for regionalization.  The second factor disqualifying the action by China is that H5N8 was diagnosed in a large number of wild swans in Shanxi Province in mid-December. It is an established reality that H5 and H7 avian influenza viruses are endemic in China, further invalidating their action. 


The lesson from this ban is that China will impose restrictions based on real or perceived risks in contravention of accepted trade norms.  China will only comply with rules if it is to their benefit.  This consideration should be borne in mind as China becomes a more important trade partner.  For the first eleven months of 2020, the U.S. exported 343,000 metric tons of poultry products including paws, bone-in chicken parts, wings and by-products valued at $613 million.


2019 FDA Antimicrobial Use Report in Food-Producing Animals


On December 15th the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a summary report on antibiotic use in livestock entitled Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed in 2019 for Use in Food-Producing Animals. This document follows the previous annual review of antimicrobial use and covers 2019. The comprehensive report includes sponsor estimates of product sales but the data is an accurate record of antibiotic use by class and by livestock segment.


The data presented is required under the Animal Drug Use Act of 2018 that mandates that every sponsor of an approved animal drug containing an antimicrobial active ingredient must report to the FDA the amount of each ingredient in that drug product sold or distributed for use in food-producing animals.


The report should be considered in relation to Guidance for Industry Documents #213 and #152 that classified antibiotic classes as either “medically important for human therapy” or “not medically important”. It is noted that commencing in 2017 Veterinary Feed Directives or prescriptions were required for feed additives or water-administered antibiotics respectively.


In 2019 11,473,712 kg of antibiotic, expressed as active ingredient was marketed. Of this total, more than 99.5 percent was used domestically with only a small fraction exported.


The total of medically important antibiotics used in 2019, comprising nine classes, amounted to 6,189,260 kg of active ingredient (13.6 million pounds). The use of non-medically important antibiotics of which 89 percent comprised ionophores attained 5,279,098 kg of active ingredient (11.6 million pounds).


The Executive Summary of the report demonstrated a decrease of 36 percent in antibiotic use from 2015 through 2019 and a decrease of 25 percent from 2010 through 2019. With specific reference to 2019 for all food species tetracyclines accounted for 66 percent of medically important antibiotic use; penicillins, 12 percent; macrolides, 8 percent; sulfas, 5 percent; aminoglycosides, 5 percent; lincosamides, 2 percent and cephalosporins 0.5 percent. Fluoroquinolones use accounted for less than 0.4 percent consistent with the previous ban on this class of antibiotics in food-producing species.


In evaluating medically important antibiotic drugs approved for use in food-producing animals marketed in 2019 a total of 6,189,260 kg was used in cattle, swine, chickens and turkeys representing a reduction of 26 percent from 2016 but 3 percent more than in 2018. The “other” category for non-food producing animals and minor food-producing species including fish amounted to 3.8 percent of the 2019 total to be subtracted from the 6,189,260 kg. for all food-producing animals.


Chicken (presumed to be broilers and breeders) consumed 3.1 percent of the total or 192,964 kg. Turkeys consumed 10.4 percent of the antibiotics used in food producing animals. The administration of antibiotics in egg-production was negligible and for the purposes of the FDA report any use in this sector was included in the “chicken” category.


To determine the relative use of antibiotics in chickens and turkeys and the differences between 2016 and 2019 the use of antibiotics expressed in mg. was compared to production (RTC) in kg. For chickens in 2016 for each kg of RTC product 26.0 mg of antibiotic was used in 2019. The use per kg of RTC declined by 62.7 percent to 9.7 mg per kg. This is consistent with the general perception that antibiotic use in the broiler industry has more than halved over the past three years due the introduction of “no-antibiotic-ever” or alternative label claims for reduced antibiotic use.


For turkeys the consumption of antibiotic expressed per unit of processed mass was 126.5 mg per kg. in 2016. Antibiotic use was calculated to be 4.9 times that of broilers in the year before introduction of VFDs and prescriptions. In 2019 antibiotic use in turkeys declined by 12.4 percent to 110.8 mg per kg. Between 2016 and 2019 the ratio of antibiotic use in turkeys compared to chickens widened from 4.9 to 11.4 suggesting less progress in eliminating antibiotics for this segment of the U.S. poultry industry.


The broiler industry has managed to eliminate antibiotics by recognizing that a number of growth-stimulating antibiotic products were basically ineffective or provided a marginal benefit in relation to cost. The industry has made strides in controlling immunosuppressive infections including Marek’s and infectious bursal disease. Vaccination against respiratory infections including IB and LT has effectively reduced the severity of these conditions. A greater awareness of the need for appropriate ventilation and control of litter moisture has reduced both the severity and consequences of respiratory disease and intestinal infections. This has resulted in lower use of antibiotics to control colibacillosis and clostridial enterotoxemic conditions including NE. Regrettably less progress has been made in the adoption of alternative modalities to antibiotics in the turkey industry to both prevent and treat infections. 





Difference (%)

Chicken RTC (million m. tons)




Antibiotic use (kg)




Chicken use (mg/kg RTC)





Turkey RTC (million m. tons)




Antibiotic use (kg)




Turkey use (mg/kg RTC)





Ratio Turkey : Chicken use






In commenting on the report, Dr. Ashley Peterson the Senior Vice President For Scientific and Regulatory Affairs for the National Chicken Council stated, “We are proud to say that chicken producers have been leaders in proactively taking steps toward finding alternative ways to control disease while reducing antibiotic use, especially those important to human medicine.” 


For the purposes of comparison, antibiotic use in the swine industry amounted to 205.6 mg per kg. in 2019 based on production of 12.56 million metric tons of RTC.


Widespread Criticism of U.S. PCR COVID Testing


The outgoing Administration has consistently quoted the "successful" implementation of millions of COVID-19 PCR assays.  Bill Gates, entrepreneur, philanthropist and founder of Microsoft regards the testing component of COVID-19 control in the U.S. as ineffective and a waste of money. The entire U.S. program of testing based on PCR assay has been ineffective and the contribution of this aspect of control contrasts poorly with the success of the Warp Speed development of vaccines.


 The contribution of ‘testing’ in reducing the incidence rate of COVID-19, depends on identifying both asymptomatic and affected individuals and having them isolate to prevent dissemination of virus.  Any delay greater than 48 hours in receiving results invalidates the Purpose of testing individuals.


Dr. Brett Giroir, Assistant Secretary for Health responsible for the inadequately implemented and fragmented testing program effectively agreed with Gates in a recent interview on CNN. Dr. Giroir stated, "we are never going to be happy with testing until we get turnaround times within 24 hours and I would be happy with point-of-care testing everywhere".  Giroir added that more than half of COVID testing is conducted at central laboratories with turnaround times of over four days.  The highest daily test rate was on July 28th with 733,000 tests conducted, most of which fell into the "useless" category with respect to prasctical control of the infection.


A number of prominent epidemiologists have noted that a lateral-flow immunoassay test similar to a pregnancy test kit with about 90 percent sensitivity and 95 percent specificity, costing in the region of $1 to $3 would be more beneficial than PCR procedures at $100 offering 99 percent sensitivity but with extended delays in obtaining results.


Early in the COVID outbreak, the question of testing was politicized.  Prominent members of the outgoing Administration believed that the rapidly ascending incidence rate actually attributed to widespread community infection was in fact due to "testing".  A wide gulf in understanding developed between epidemiologists affiliated with the NIH and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with the non-scientists in the White House concerned with optics of ascending incidence rates. Overt attempts were made to suppress statistics on new cases and hospitalizations to support the myth that the nation had somehow “turned a corner” to permit restoration of pre-COVID activities.  The role of the CDC with respect to testing was subject to restraints imposed by the Administration leading to what may be regarded as a national failure with respect to a critical aspect of control. China, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand achieved early and rapid control of COVID through testing and quarantine and implementation of commonsense protective measures.


To implement effective prevention of COVID-19 in the context of packing plants and food production facilities antigen tests applying lateral immunoflow technology are required.  These provide low-cost and almost instant results that can form the basis of a logical assignment of employees to either quarantine or their workplace.


USDA-APHIS Modifies Response to Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak-Implications for HPAI?


Foot-and-Mouth disease is exotic to the U.S. but the USDA-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has updated their response plan to any possible introduction of the infection. Regular reviews are conducted by APHIS, based on experience in other nations confronted with catastrophic diseases and the Agency conducts regular exercises to ensure preparedness.


An important component of the updated response plan will be the use of an effective FMD vaccine.  This is an important departure from the conventional stamping-out approach.  Obviously APHIS was influenced by the extensive outbreak in the U.K. that commenced in 2018 and resulted in extensive losses in the dairy, beef, pork and sheep industries.  During the initial six months of the outbreak, the resources of the Department of Agriculture were overwhelmed.  Control was only achieved when the U.K. military were called on to deplete farms and dispose of carcasses, ending the outbreak.


Post-disease reviews clearly indicated that quarantine including restricting movement of animals, products and personnel were critical to limit the spread of infection.  FMD is not in itself a fatal disease and animals can recover if provided supportive therapy and care.  Ring immunization to establish a barrier against dissemination of virus will be incorporated in any future outbreaks of FMD in the U.K.  Epidemiologic monitoring has clearly demonstrated the value of immunization coupled with traditional methods of control.  Now that the playbook has been revised for the U.S., it is hoped that a stockpile of FMD vaccine will be available to conduct an extensive immunization program as part of any required response.


Prevention of FMD by rigorous control at points of entry into the U.S. is still the most effective strategy to prevent catastrophic infections such as FMD and African swine fever, requiring the cooperation of trading partners and especially Mexico and Canada. By the same token the USDA and the Customs and Border Control service have a joint responsibility to exclude all exotic diseases.


The concept of using an FMD vaccine as a component of control should be reconsidered with respect to avian influenza.  The 2015 outbreak required depletion of over 40 million birds and was a costly exercise for the industry, APHIS and consumers.  The probability of introducing HPAI into the U.S. is far greater than FMD given that migratory waterfowl transmit the virus. This is evident in Europe and Asia at the present time.  With the general adoption of compartmentalization for breeders and regionalization for production of eggs and poultry meat, ring immunization could be considered to control other than limited outbreaks of HPAI as implemented in Italy with an inactivated DIVA vaccine during the late 1990s. 


In 2015, the use of vaccines to control HPAI in the egg industry was essentially vetoed on the grounds that it would seriously impact exports of poultry meat.  Given the current situation, applying vaccines to control HPAI among egg production flocks in Iowa should not affect export of leg quarters and feet from southeast states if importing nations accept World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) guidelines.  Outbreaks of Exotic Newcastle disease in backyard flocks in southern California, extending over thirty months and the limited outbreak of avian influenza among turkeys in the Carolinas in 2020 indicate a more flexible approach to restricting exports by our trading partners. It is inevitable that HPAI will return to the U.S. poultry industry and accordingly we should not exclude consideration of judicial and appropriate use of vaccines as a component of control.


Can Employers Mandate COVID Vaccination?


Given the imminent approval of two and possibly a third COVID vaccine and establishment of a priority list for recipients, wide scale vaccination of workers in the food industry is anticipated during the first quarter of 2021.  The question arises as to whether employers will be entitled to mandate vaccination to protect the entire workforce in a facility. Availability of a vaccine does not absolve employers from conforming to accepted preventive measures nor does it allow workers to neglect commonsense precautions to avoid infection.


There are no laws dealing specifically with COVID vaccination so policy should be based on current regulations relating to seasonal influenza vaccine.  According to Equal Employment Opportunity Commission rulings, an employee may be exempted from mandatory vaccination if an exceptionality covered by the Americans with Disability Act is present.  Employees may also be allowed to forego vaccination in terms of VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, if receiving a vaccine violates religious beliefs.  In these cases, an employer must provide additional PPE, change the work-station of the employee or allow work-from-home.  Generally, the EEOC encourages employees to volunteer to receive a vaccine rather than having a mandate requiring administration. The CDC guidelines should serve as the basis for company policy with specific reference to critical industries including healthcare and presumably food production.  The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid services have published an Interim Final Rule to facilitate access to COVID-19 vaccines.  It is hoped that favorable publicity emphasizing the effectiveness and safety of vaccines will encourage uptake.  Peer pressure among workers in a plant will be an important determinant of the willingness to be vaccinated and it is evident that obstacles to receiving a vaccine should be minimized. 


The quicker that our nation can be immunized, the earlier we will be able to return to a “new normal”.  It is axiomatic that vaccination alone will not necessarily bring an end to the pandemic.  Even if more than 70 percent of our population are vaccinated, preventive measures including masking, social distancing and avoiding social gatherings will have be followed through most of 2021.  Relaxation of precautions can be reviewed in the light of incidence rates in specific communities. 


Uncertainty Over Consumption of Turkey for Thanksgivingnin 2020


Each year turkey producers attempt to quantify demand for turkeys in anticipation of the Thanksgiving and Christmas period in order to determine the relative and total volumes of hen and tom placements. The current year has been like no other due to the impact of COVID-19 and the consequential effect on preferences and buying power.


 On November 19th the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an advisory against family gatherings requiring travel or multigenerational or multifamily participation, for fear of increasing the rapidly escalating incidence rate especially in the midwest, southwest and northern-tier states.  Although placements of poults is lower in 2020 compared to previous years due to sharply lower earnings in 2019, predictions for the relative numbers of toms and hens to be sold will be influenced by public response to COVID.  Smaller family gatherings suggest hen turkeys of reduced size or in many cases substitution will occur with serving of roast chicken or only ham for the traditional meal.


It is significant that Meijer has slashed the price of store-brand birds to 39 cents per pound from mid-November through Thanksgiving.  Frozen branded turkeys are offered at prices from 79 cents to 99 cents per pound. Lynette Ackley, Vice President of Fresh for Meijer stated, “This year certainly has not been easy causing numerous disruptions to birthday celebrations, milestone occasions and family gatherings.”  She added, “As we head into the holiday season we wanted to make sure our time-honored Thanksgiving tradition of offering birds at an incredibly low price continued for our customers.” As stock of frozen toms increases many chains will offer loss leader prices to move inventory.


Many supermarkets and restaurants chains that have been impacted by COVID restrictions are offering pre-prepared family meals with a roasted hen turkey presented with the “fixings” to feed up to six diners.


Stock levels will be carefully monitored and will determine future placing of hen and tom poults as the industry moves through the first quarter of 2021.  Restoration of profitability or in the case of some companies, achieving a “less bad” situation may well be reversed. Following the situation in 2020, supply may have to be further reduced to balance demand in an economy that has yet to recover from the impact of COVID-19 and in a market with available protein in abundance. For the processing week ended November 14th the national average frozen hen wholesale price declined 6.8 cents per lb. to 106 cents per lb. compared to the previous week. In contrast fresh hens retained their value at 132 cents per lb. Consistent with seasonal trends, cold storage at selected centers decreased by 41 percent from November 1st to November 16th but accumulation of stock may be occurring at the retail level.


Finalization of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership


The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into being on Sunday, November 15th.  This Asian trading block comprises 15 nations, including 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and includes seven existing members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPATPP), established over four years ago. Following extensive negotiations through 2015 and 2016 the U.S. withdrew unilaterally from what was then the TPPA forerunner of the CPATPP in 2017. The policy of estanblishing separate bilateral agreements with China and Japan has been less beneficial than membership of the TPPA would have been.

China emerges as a winner with RCEP

The RCEP is considered deficient in that both environmental and labor rules are poorly defined as are the sections on dispute settlement, competition and services. Despite shortcomings China appears to be a winner as it is now established as participant in an Asian trading group.


The incoming Administration will have to carefully evaluate future trade agreements but rejoining the CPATPP would appear to be the best option to counter the regional influence of China.


Rising Incidence of COVID Results in Gubernatorial Finger Pointing


Sturgis Rally
A Superspreader Event

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) has criticized the Governor of neighboring South Dakota Kristi Noem (R) for facilitating the spread of COVID.  He pointed specifically to the August Sturgis Motorcycle Rally that he characterized as "absolutely unnecessary" and resulted in regional spread of the virus. As of Friday 13th the positive rate for COVID tests attained 56 percent in South Dakota, indicating widespread infection. The WHO generally regards 5 percent as a critical level requiring public health intervention. In comparison there are 11 states with positive levels ranging from 1.1 to 5.0 percent of those tested. The difference is not due to intensity of testing as the states with low positive rates all have a higher proportion of their populations tested than in South Dakota. 


Irrespective of political affiliation, virtually all states are recording increased incidence rates although social distancing and masking appear to be ameliorative.  Every effort should be made to once again "flatten the curve". This will require voluntary compliance with masking and abstaining from unnecessary travel and gatherings.  Since wide deployment of an effective COVID vaccine is months in the future, commonsense precautions are required to ease the pressure on our medical first responders and intensive care wards. Control of the disease is essential to allow gradual reopening of schools, universities and other segments of our economy that have been impacted over the past nine months.
MN Gov. Tim Walz (D)

SD Gov. Kristi Noem (R)

As of November 13th the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security reported that the U.S. has recorded 10.4 million cases with 241,000 confirmed deaths. For seven consecutive days, new cases have exceeded 120,000 per day representing a 70 percent increase over two weeks.  Fatalities are also increasing, but fortunately at a disproportionate rate to new cases mainly due to improved diagnosis and supportive therapy.  Close to 1,500 fatalities were recorded on November 12th and 13th and will increase in the most affected states since deaths from COVID lag cases by about three weeks.




Discrepancy in Fines by Western State and Federal OSHA Over COVID


The Food and Environmental Research Network estimates that 72,000 farm, meat-plant and food industry workers have contracted COVID since the commencement of the outbreak resulting in 327 fatalities. If there are 550,000 employed in food and farming, and the data is accurate, the prevalence rate is over 13,000 per 100,000 population which is totally inconsistent with what might be regarded as acceptable, compared to data for the U.S. population. During the first week in November, the U.S. had reported 9.4 million total cases and 233,100 fatalities with an incidence rate of over 100,000 per day.

After investigation of COVID outbreaks, the Federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration has levied a series of fines against packers.  Smithfield Foods was fined approximately $14,000 for the outbreak involving 1,300 workers at the Sioux Falls, SD. plant.  JBS was fined $14,000 for 348 cases in outbreak in their Green Bay, WI. packing plant. Based on three plants where OSHA fines were imposed, the quantum per worker ranged from $10 to $50.  In contrast, regulators in California and Oregon that operate a state Occupational Safety and Health Administration, have been more stringent.  California has levied $400,000 in fines for deficiencies in protection on both farms and plants. Violations usually relate to social distancing and failure to provide PPE.  The Olson Meat Company was fined $9,000, DL Poultry, $36,000 and Overhill Farms $110,000 among others, for failure to create conditions that would protect workers. 


Sec. Labor Eugene Scalia

Maura Ortenburger, Director of Communications and Research at Worksafe stated, “at the Federal level it is seriously disappointing and dangerous, the way the head of the Labor Department has been running OSHA.” Recent news reports have criticized the Secretary of the Department of Labor, Eugene Scalia, appointed in late September 2019 as a “wrecking ball aimed at workers” Scalia previously functioned as a partner in the Firm of Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher, representing corporate interests in labor litigation.  From 1992 through 1993 he served as a special assistant to then Attorney General William P. Barr in the Bush Administration.


Obvious opposition to worker’s rights runs counter to representations by Secretary Scalia and the Administrators of OSHA regarding improving ergonomics and preventing COVID.  He is actually on record as stating that OHSA has no role in managing COVID-19 in the U.S. Over the past four years policy directives and OSHA regulations have been progressively more favorable to employers.