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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #588 May 10th 2019

05/15/2019

OVERVIEW

The May 10th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed and stated intentions at 85.4 million acres (81.8 million in 2018). In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 87.8 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018). There was apparently no material change due to recent Midwest flooding or the forecast for wet conditions from snowmelt delaying planting.

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 176.0 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018). Soybean yield was projected at 49.5 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018). These values presume suitable planting and growing conditions, time of sowing and standard rates of germination.

The May USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 22.1 percent to 2,485 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 8.5 percent higher at 970 million bushels. Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations. It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation, a prospect that appears in question given lower demand from China and the latest round of tariffs imposed by both nations.

CORN

The corn harvest for 2019 documented in the WASDE Report is projected to be 15,030 million bushels consistent with current planting intentions. The projection for 2019 can be compared to the 2018 harvest of 14,420 million bushels and is down 0.7 percent from the 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The "Ethanol and Byproducts" category was retained at 5,550 m. bushels. Exports were reduced to 2,275 million bushels based on competition from Brazil and Argentine and increased World domestic coarse grain production. The "Feed and Residual" category was raised 2.5 percent to 5,450 million bushels. Ending stocks will increase by a substantial 22.1 percent to 2,485 m. bushels. The projected USDA farm price was estimated to be 330 cents per bushel down 25 cents from the mid-point of the April WASDE range. At close of trading on May 15th CME quotations for July 2019 and September 2019 corn were 374 cents and 382 cents per bushel respectively, 3.8 percent and 1.3 percent higher than the trade levels on April 9th.

May 2019 WASDE #588 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2019 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area 85.4 m* acres (92.8 m. acres planted, corresponding to 92.0 % of area harvested)

Yield 176.0 bushels per acre (was175.4 bushels per acre in 2017, 178.9 bushels per acre 2018)

Beginning Stocks 2,095 m. bushels

Production 15,030 m. bushels

Imports 35 m. bushels

Total supply 17,160 m bushels Proportion of Supply

Feed & residual 5,450 m. bushels 31.8%

Food & Seed 1,450 m. bushels 8.4%

Ethanol & byproducts 5,550 m. bushels 32.3 %

Domestic Use 12,400 m. bushels 72.5%

Exports 2,275 m. bushels 13.1%

Ending Stocks 2,485 m. bushels 14.4%

Stock-to- domestic use proportion 20.0% (Was 16.6% in the April 2019 WASDE Report)

Average Farm Price: $3.30 per bushel . (Down 25 cents per bushel compared to the mid-point of the April 2019 WASDE Report)

*m.=million

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL

USDA projected the 2019 soybean crop to be 4,150 million bushels, down 8.7 percent from the April estimate, based on a yield of 49.5 bushels per acre with a 0.3 percent lower area to be harvested. Use parameters were essentially unchanged from the April 2019 WASDE Report with crushings at 2,115 m. tons. Projected exports were raised to 1,950 million bushels, presumably in anticipation of a resolution of the trade conflict with China. This figure appears speculative given that negotiations are still in progress and both the U.S. and China have imposed mutually punitive duties. China ceased imports in July 2018 resuming with low orders in the second quarter of 2019. This nation is usually responsible for imports equivalent to 25 percent of U.S. production. Orders have been placed by China for soybeans to be delivered before September 2019 but at a lower level than in 2017 representing a normal purchase pattern. Ending stocks were adjusted up to 970 million bushels from 895 million bushels. The USDA projection of the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2019 harvest was 810 cents per bushel, 50 cents per bushel lower than the 860 cent mid-point of the April WASDE estimate. At close of trading on May 15th CME quotations for soybeans for July 2019 and September 2019 delivery were 836 cents and 849 cents per bushel respectively, lower by 7.5 percent and 7.9 percent compared to CME quotations on April 9th.

Projected output of soybean meal was increased 1.6 percent from the April 2019 WASDE to 49.8 million tons. Domestic use was raised to 36.6 million tons. Exports were lowered 1.1 percent to 13.6 million tons despite an uncertain trade environment. The USDA projected a $25 per ton change in the price of soybean meal to $290 per ton compared to the mid-point of the range in the April WASDE Report. At close of trading on May 15th CME quotations for July and September 2019 deliveries of soybean meal were $300 and $301 respectively, 3.0 percent and 5.3 percent lower than on April 9th.

MAY 2019 WASDE #588 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2019 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION:

Harvest Area 87.8 m. acres (84.6 m. acres planted, corresponding to 96.4% of planted acreage)

Yield 49.5 bushels per acre (was 49.5 bushels/acre in 2017, 52.1 bushels/acre in 2018)

Beginning Stock 995m. bushels (was 438m bushels in April WASDE)

Production 4,150m bushels

Imports 20m. bushels

Total Supply 5,165m bushels Proportion of Supply

Crushings 2,115m. bushels 41.0%

Exports 1,950m. bushels 37.8%

Seed 96m. bushels 1.9%

Residual 34 m. bushels 0.6%

Total Use 4,195 m. bushels 81.2%

Ending Stocks 895 m. bushels 18.8% (was 895m bushels in April WASDE)

Average Farm Price: 810 cents per bushel (Down 50 cents per bu. compared to the mid-point in the April WASDE Report)

Soybean Meal

Beginning Stocks 0.450 m. tons

Production 49.800 m. tons

Imports 0.350 m. tons

Total Supply 50.600 m. tons

Domestic Use 36.600 m. tons

Exports 13.600 m. tons

Total Use 50.200 m. tons

Ending Stocks 0.400 m. tons

Average Price ex plant : $290 (Down $25 per ton compared to the mid-point of the range in the April WASDE Report)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen

  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen

  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.

 WORLD SITUATION

The global projection of production of coarse grains is up 3.5 percent to 1.38 billion m. tons, representing a record. Forecasts were raised for the U.S. Brazil, Russia, Canada and South Africa but lowered for Ukraine and China.

The projection for global oilseeds was up 3.0 billion m. tons due to higher production from Brazil and increased canola from India.

Updated World production and use of total grains and oilseeds is summarized for the 2019/2020 season taking into account Northern and Southern Hemisphere production are:-

Factor Billion m.tons. Coarse grains Oilseeds

Output 1.425 598

Supply 1.777 729

World trade 207 175

Use 1.434 503

Ending stocks 344 130

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) ("ton" represents 2,000 pounds)


 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane