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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020.

03/18/2020

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on March 16th 2020 for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (actual) and 2019 (revised) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was revised slightly from the January 2020 report. Production in 2019 increased by 3.1 percent compared to 2018 to 19.96 million metric tons (43,905 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was 2.6 percent higher than 2018 at 43.1 kg. (94.8 lbs.). Consumption is expected to increase in 2020 by 2.0 kg (4.4 lbs.) to 45.1 kg (99.2 lbs). Exports will represent 16.1 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.377 million metric tons (7,430 million lbs.) This is based on ratification of the USMCA 2020. The Agreement was concluded in September 2018, modified in November 2019 and will take effect June 1 st. The projection presumably takes into account renewed exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping resulting from the coronavirus outbreak will restrict exports to China during the first quarter of 2020

Turkey production for 2019 was updated to 2.691 million metric tons (5,920 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will be 7.2 kg. (15.9 lb.) during 2020, a 0.6 percent downward projection from 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 was raised from 0.291 million metric tons (640 million lbs.) in 2019 to 0.295 million metric tons (649 million lbs.) presumably from new markets purchasing breast meat, portions and MDM.

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 and 2020 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories.

The projections do not allow for emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvNCD.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019

(revised)

2020 Difference %

(projection) 2019 to 2020

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.957

20.943 +4.9

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

45.1 +4.6

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.231

3.377 +3.2

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.2

16.1 +0.6

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.644

2,691 -1.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

7.2 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.291

0.295 +1.4

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

11.2

11.0 -1.8

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –March 16 th 2020


 
Copyright © 2020 Simon M. Shane