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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2020.

05/18/2020

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on May 18th 2020 for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (actual) and 2019 (revised) together with a projection for 2020. Broiler data for 2019 in the May report was unchanged from the April 2020 posting.

 

Projection of broiler production in 2020 was revised downward by 3.1 percent from the April report to reflect a 0.3 percent decline for 2020 to 19.90 million metric tons RTC (43,778 million lbs.) compared to 2019. This was occasioned by reduced processing rates in March and April due to COVID-19. Per capita consumption in 2020 will be 0.9 percent lower than in 2019 at 42.7 kg. (94.1.0 lbs.). This was a 4.0 percent downward revision from April. Exports will represent 16.8 percent of RTC production in 2020 attaining 3.347 million metric tons (7,363 million lbs.) The projection presumably takes into account renewed exports to China in 2020 following signing of the Phase-1 Trade Agreement on January 15th 2020. Disruption in shipping resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak restricted exports to China during the first quarter of 2020. The export projection for 2020 was revised upwards from April by 1.9 percent based on shipments year-to-date to China and also ratification of the USMCA securing volume to Mexico and Canada.

 

Turkey production for 2020 was updated 0.3 percent from 2019 to 2.651 million metric tons RTC, (5,834 million lbs.). Per capita consumption will be 7.2 kg. (15.9 lb.) during 2020, 1.4 percent lower than 2019 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2020 is expected to fall sharply by 8.6 percent to 0.266 million metric tons (585 million lbs.) Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2020 are considered to be optimistic given the prevailing economy, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventories.

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including China nor the emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND.

 

 

 

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019

(revised)

2020 Difference %

(projection) 2019 to 2020

Broilers

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.957

19,899 -0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

42.7 -0.3

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.231

3.347 +3.6

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.2

16.8 +3.7

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.644

2,651 +0.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

7.2 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.291

0.266 -8.6

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

11.2

10.0 -10.7

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –May 18th 2020

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 
Copyright © 2020 Simon M. Shane