In a recent forecast of animal production in various regions and nations, Rabobank emphasized uncertainty attributed to COVID-19. The pandemic resulted in closure of processing plants in the major pork and beef-producing nations including the U.S., Brazil and Germany from March through July. Restrictions imposed to prevent transmission of infection impacted the food service segment of the industry and diminished global trade. Rabobank considers that the protein market will recover from disruptions in 2021, and will be dependent on measures to control COVID infection among workers and consumers following enhanced personal safety and the deployment of effective vaccines.
Rabobank expects only marginal changes in North America in 2021 with growth in beef consumption. Pork and poultry producers will be reliant on exports to maintain projected output levels. In Europe, poultry demand will increase consistent with recovery of the food service sector although pork and beef production will decline.
With respect to China, recovery from African swine fever is apparent due mainly to restructuring of production and processing capacity into dedicated complexes despite the absence of a vaccine. An increase in pork consumption is anticipated at the expense of beef and imports. Rabobank predicts a soft domestic market for Brazil with industry profitability dependent on exports.