According to Reuters, official Chinese statistics claim pork production during the second quarter of 2021 attained 13.46 million metric tons. This represented a 40 percent increase compared to the corresponding quarter in 2020. Most of the incremental volume was derived from large integrated producers. The sixteen industry leaders collectively increased production to 42.8 million hogs during the first half of 2021. Large producers have been able to control African swine fever more effectively than traditional small family units with deficiencient biosecurity.
The large increase in production has contributed to a reduction in the price of pork. Outbreaks of African swine fever in Sichuan Province have motivated producers to consign hogs to market adding to downward price pressure.
The implications from increased production are that China will reduce imports perhaps by as much as half the 2020 level. This in turn will reduce the price of pork in the U.S. and will compete with the broiler and turkey industries.
The live hog settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (‘DCE’) fell 56 percent from the equivalent of $1.98/live lb. on March 1st 2021 to $1.27/live lb. on July 19th.