A recent report by RaboResearch, a division of Rabobank, confirmed continuing recovery of the hog industry in China as African Swine Fever (ASF) is controlled. Ping Chew, Head of Research, Food and Agriculture for Asia, contrasted changes in pork and chicken production during January 2020 and October 2021 to illustrate the reciprocal movement in the price of animal proteins. Pork has fallen over the period from $7 per lb. at retail to $2.20 per lb., live hogs have fallen from $2.80 per lb. to $0.70 per lb. at a price that is currently non-profitable for small and inefficient producers. Weaned piglets have fallen from a high of $9 during the first quarter of 2020 to $2 in October 2021.
In documenting the fall in the price of white-feathered broilers, Rabobank notes that live mature broilers have declined from $0.83 per lb. to $0.35 per lb. Day old chicks, a reliable indicator of demand and profitability, fell from $1.50 in 2020 to $0.25 in October 2021. It is estimated by Rabobank that independent hatcheries are no longer generating positive margins.
Placement of broiler parent flocks increased by 10 percent over the first ten months of 2021 adding progressively to the supply of day-old chicks. Poultry imports for the first three quarters of 2021 amounted to 1.05 million metric tons, down four percent from the corresponding period in calendar 2020. Wing imports are down 27 percent and bone-in meat, mostly in the form of leg quarters, fell 12 percent during the first nine months of 2021.
Over the first nine months of this year, China was ranked second by both volume and value among importers of U.S. chicken receiving leg quarters, feet and giblets. China represented 12.0 percent of export volume and 18.6 percent of value at an average unit price of $1,850 per ton suggesting a high proportion of feet received.