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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Turkey Week

11/23/2021

Weekly Turkey Production and Prices November 19th 2021

 

Poult Production and Placement:

The November 18th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 27.5 million eggs in incubators on November 1st 2021 (25.6 million eggs on October 1st 2021*) and up 2.7 percent (0.73 million eggs) from November 1st 2020.

 

A total of 22.0 million poults were hatched during October 2021 (21.0 million in September 2021*), representing a decrease of 5.5 percent (1.28 million poults) from October 2020.

 

A total of 19.7 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in October 2021, (18.8 million in September 2021*), 1.9 percent (0.4 million poults) less than in October 2020. This suggests disposal of 2.3 million poults during the month (2.4 million in September 2021). Based on the proportion of 55 percent hens to 45 percent toms processed in September and October it is calculated that 1.0 million hen poults representing 4.5 percent of the October hatch and 1.3 million tom poults representing 5.3 percent of October hatch were not placed during the month.

 

For the twelve-month period November 2020 through October 2021 inclusive, 264.5 million poults were hatched and 245.9 million were placed. This suggests disposal of 18.6 million poults. Assuming an equal proportion of placements between toms and hens reared year to date, for the 12-month period, 7.0 percent of all poults were not placed. This is an unsubstantiated estimate with a fluctuating demand for processed toms and hens in a post-COVID affected market with toms predominating during the first quarter of 2021 and more hens placed in the third quarter. (See relative numbers of hen and tom poults processed under Production Data below).

 

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

 

To be updated in mid-December 2021 following release of monthly USDA data

 

Turkey Production:

The November 19th 2021 edition of the USDA Turkey Market News Report (Vol. 68: No.46) confirmed the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

  • For the processing week ending November 13th 2021, 2.460 million young hens were slaughtered during the processing week at a live weight of 15.6 lbs. (last week 2,546 million hens at 17.1 lbs.). During the corresponding week in 2020, 2.560 million hens were processed, 4.0 percent more than the most recent week in 2021. Ready-to-cook (RTC) hen weight for the week attained 30.9 million lbs. (14,501 metric tons), 2.7 percent less than for the corresponding processing week of 2020. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5. In 2021 RTC hen production has attained 1,087 million lbs. (494,380 metric tons) to date, 1.3 percent less than for YTD 2020.
  • For the processing week ending November 13th 2021, 2,177 million toms were slaughtered at 44.0 lbs., compared to 1.979 million toms processed during the previous week at 44.9 lbs. For the corresponding week in 2020, 2.256 million toms were processed, 3.7 percent more than in the most recent week in 2021. Ready-to-cook tom weight for the week attained 77.2 million lbs. (35,081 metric tons), 2.4 percent less than the corresponding processing week in 2020. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. In 2021 RTC tom product has attained 3,383 million lbs. (1,537,879 metric tons) to date, 7.3 percent less than YTD 2020.
  • The National average frozen hen price during the past week was 134.7 cents per lb., down 1.1 cents per lb. from the previous week and up approximately 36 cents per lb. from the three-year average. The following prices rounded to nearest cent were documented for domestic and export trading on November 19th 2021:-

Product

cents per lb.

Change from previous Week (%)

Frozen hens

135

-0.7

Frozen toms

132

-2.9

Fresh hens

145

Unchanged

Fresh toms

144

Unchanged

Breasts 4.0-6.5 lb. (frozen)

168

+1.2

Breasts (B/S) tom

365

+12.3

Drums (toms for export)

120

+2.6

Wings (V-cut tom)

129

+37.2

Wings (V-cut hens)

240

No new quotation

Thigh Meat (frozen for export)

20

No new quotation

Mechanically Separated (export)

47

No new quotation

  1. Presumed value

 

Inventories:

On November 15th 2021 cold storage holdings at selected centers amounted to 41,058 lbs., 24.9 percent less than the inventory of 54,699 lbs. on November 1st 2021.

 

The November 23rd 2021 edition of the USDA Cold Storage Report issued monthly, documented a total turkey stock of 303.5 million lbs. (137,966 metric tons) on October 31st 2021, equivalent to 3.3 weeks of current production and down 19.3 percent compared to the inventory on October 31st 2020. The October 31st value was 26.7 percent below the September 30th 2021 level. This change is consistent with season and denotes a restoration of balance between supply and the combination of domestic demand and exports.

 

The Whole Turkey category of 173.7 million lbs. representing 57.2 percent of total storage of 303.5 million lbs. on October 31st 2021 was 19.3 percent lower than the inventory on October 31st 2020.

 

  • Tom carcasses in storage decreased by 6.8 percent from October 31st 2020 to 103.5 million lbs. on October 31st Tom carcasses decreased 36.0 percent during October 2021 compared to September 2021.
  • Hen carcasses in storage decreased by 12.6 percent from October 31st 2020 to 70.3 million lbs. on October 31st Hen carcasses decreased 37.9 percent during October 2021 compared to September 2021.

 

Breasts in storage declined by 50.8 percent from October 31st 2020 to 33.2 million lbs. on October 31st 2021.

 

The “Other” and “Unclassified” categories collectively amounted to 85.0 million lbs. or 28.0 percent of inventory on October 31st 2021. The magnitude of these two non-specified categories suggests that the USDA should attempt to classify product more accurately as to specific product.

 

October 2021 Production

According to the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on November 23rd 2021 covering, October 2021 comprising 21 working days:-

  • During October 19.9 million young turkeys were processed. (4.8 percent less than in October 2020);
  • Total live weight attained 601.3 million lbs. (7.2 percent less than October 2020 presumably due to a higher proportion of hens);
  • Average live weight was 30.2 lbs. (2.5 percent less than October 2020);
  • RTC attained 4817 million lbs. (down 7.1 percent from October 2020) with a yield of 80.1 percent.
  • The proportion of frozen product in October 2021 attained 38.1 percent of total RTC produced.
  • In October 2021 ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.26 percent of live weight, (0.25 in October 2020). During the past month in 2021, 1.2 percent of RTC weight was condemned (1.2 percent in October 2020)

(To be updated in late December with data for November)

 

Comments:

Please review comments in the Weekly Broiler Report and the year-to-date export data under the Statistics Tab.

 

The USMCA has been in effect since July 1st 2020. The U.S. turkey industry shipped 173,544 metric tons to Mexico or 62.6 percent of all turkey exports, valued at $389 million during 2018. In 2019 Mexico received 176,789 metric tons representing 60.9 percent of turkey exports valued at $427 million. Thailand commenced importing raw turkey effective January 1st 2021 after lifting a 2015 avian influenza embargo that was placed on the U.S. allowing only cooked turkey. During 2020 Mexico imported 166,771 metric tons of turkey products valued at $379 million with a unit value of $2,273 per metric ton. During 2020 China imported 17,260 metric tons of turkey products with a value of $28.7 million representing a unit value of $1,663 per metric ton.

 

For the first nine months of 2021 exports of turkey products attained 186,379 metric tons valued at $477 million up 0.8 percent in volume and 14.4 percent in value compared to the corresponding period in 2020. Unit value increased by 13.5 percent in January-September 2020 from $2,254 to $2,558 per metric ton over the corresponding nine months in 2021.


 
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