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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Poultry Meat Projection

06/20/2022

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for June 2022.

 

Chick-NewsOn June 16th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), a projection for 2022 and a forecast for 2023.

 

Broiler RTC production and consumption in 2022 were unchanged from the May 2022 report and reflected a 1.2 percent increase over 2021 to 45,419 million lbs. RTC (20.645 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 0.7 percent higher compared to 2021 at 97.2 lbs. (44.2 kg.). Exports will represent 16.2 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,376 million lbs. (3.352 million metric tons) comprising both RTC leg quarters and feet. The forecast for 2023 is for 45,675 million lbs. (20.761 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 97.3 lbs. (44.2 kg.) and exports of 7,465 million lbs. (3.393 million metric tons).

 

Turkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be held at 5,359 million lbs. (2.436 million metric tons) RTC approximately 3.5 percent lower than 2021. The June projection of per capita consumption was 1.3 percent lower than in 2021 at 15.1 lbs. (6.9 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 32.4 percent to 372 million lbs. (0.169 million metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.

 

Chick-NewsThe June USDA forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprised annual production of 5,650 million lbs. (2.565 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.7 lbs. (7.1 kg.) per capita.

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations. Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

2020

(actual)

2021

(actual)

2022

(projection)

Difference %

2021 to 2022

Broilers

Production (million lbs.)

44,583

44,898

45,419

+1.2

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

95.8

96.5

97.2

+0.7

Exports (million lbs.)

7,637

7,367

7,376

+0.1

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.4

16.2

-1.2

Turkeys

Production (million lbs.)

5,743

5,558

5,359

-3.5

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

15.8

15.3

15.1

-1.3

Exports (million lbs.)

571

550

372

-32.4

Proportion of production (%)

 9.9

9.9

6.9

-30.3

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 16th 2022

 

Chick-NewsThe projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For the first quarter of 2022 China imported 155,897 tons of broiler products valued at $282 million including 67 percent feet at a unit price of $2,158 per ton.

 

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted monthly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of monthly export data under the STATISTICS tab.


 
Copyright © 2022 Simon M. Shane