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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Poultry Meat Projection

11/17/2022

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for November 2022.

 

On November 17th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.

 

Compared to 2021, broiler RTC production in 2022 was increased 2.4 percent in the November report to 45,974 million lbs. RTC (20.897 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 1.4 percent higher compared to 2021 at 98.8 lbs. (44.9 kg.). Exports will represent 15.7 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,212 million lbs. (3.278 million metric tons) comprising RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.

 

The projection for 2023 is for 46,825 million lbs. (21.284 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 100.6 lbs. (45.7 kg.) and exports of 7,370 million lbs. (3.350 million metric tons).

 

Turkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be 6.7 percent lower at 5,188 million lbs. (2.358 million metric tons) RTC. The November projection of per capita consumption for 2022 was 3.3 percent lower than in 2021 at 14.8 lbs. (6.7 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 23.9 percent to 417 million lbs. (0.190 million metric tons) from 2021. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.

 

The November USDA forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprised annual production of 5,580 million lbs. (2.536 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.7 lbs. (7.1 kg.) per capita.

 

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Parameter

2021

(actual)

2022

(update)

Difference % 2021

to 2022

2023

(projection)

Broilers

       

Production (million lbs.)

44,898

45,974

+2.4

46,825

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

96.6

98.8

+1.9

100.6

Exports (million lbs.)

7,355

7,212

-4.3

7,370

Proportion of production (%)

16.4

15.7

-4.3

15.7

         

Turkeys

       

Production (million lbs.)

5,558

5,188

-6.7

5,580

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

15.3

14.6

-4.6

15.7

Exports (million lbs.)

548

 417

-23.9

425

Proportion of production (%)

 9.9

8.0

-19.2

7.6

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released November 17th 2022

 

The export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations.

 

The projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For the first nine months of 2022 China imported 480,927 tons of broiler products valued at $855 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,778 per ton.

 

Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys and exports posted in each edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.


 
Copyright © 2022 Simon M. Shane