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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

What Will The Presidential Election In Mexico Portend?

07/07/2018

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was elected President of Mexico on Sunday, July 1st with a 58 percent plurality. He will take office on December 1st for a six-year term.

The question facing the U.S. is which version of President Lopez Obrador will be inaugurated. The fire brand left-leaning activist or a moderate politician facing severe national problems of corruption, crime and poverty?

His initial post-election comments bode well. He noted in a television interview “We will extend our open hand to look for a relationship of friendship with the U.S.” During his campaign, President-Elect Lopez Obrador criticized the proposed border wall and treatment of Latino migrants. He characterized the U.S. President as “racist and xenophobic”.

The most pressing challenge will be renegotiation of NAFTA or substitution of a bilateral trade agreement which appears to be a more likely outcome. Either way, the U.S. agricultural sector and poultry production specifically, will be affected by the outcome.

It is hoped that two extremely strong-willed Presidents of their respective nations will search for common ground and resolve what appears to be almost unsurmountable problems given the impact of injudicious decisions. Since the inception of NAFTA, the economies of the three North American were intertwined. Careful negotiation will be necessary with a need for Mexico to retain dignity and a sense of participation.

Observers do not see Lopes Obrador conceding ground to Washington unless it is ultimately in the best interest of Mexico. The Administration’s America First is mirrored by a complementary Mexico First orientation by the incoming President. Heavy handed demands by the Administration and relayed to Mexico and Canada by Robert Lighthizer have the potential to destroy relations and benefit competitors of the U.S. Diplomacy should replace threats and conciliation should replace confrontation.

Incoming President Lopez Obrador should be assisted in his attempts to improve the economy of Mexico. Deterioration in the earnings potential of middle and lower income citizens of that nation could result in a marked leftward shift and we could end up with a Venezuela on our doorstep.


 
Copyright 2018 Simon M. Shane