Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for March 2023.
On March 14th 2023 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.
Broiler RTC production in 2022 was almost unchanged in the March 2023 report at 46,206 million lbs. RTC (21.003 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 98.9 lbs. (45.0 kg.). Exports will represent 15.8 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,278 million lbs. (3.308 million metric tons) comprising RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.
The 2023 projection for broiler production is 46,750 million lbs. (21.250 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2022. USDA projects per capita consumption of 100.2 lbs. (45.5 kg.), up 1.3 percent from 2022 with exports of 7,315 million lbs. (3.325 million metric tons), 0.5 percent above the previous year.
Turkey production for 2022 will be 5,222 million lbs. (2.374 million metric tons) RTC. The March 2023 projection for per capita consumption will be unchanged from 2021 at 14.6 lbs. (6.6 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 will attain 408 million lbs. (0.185 million metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey for 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.
The March 2023 USDA projection for the turkey industry included annual production of 5,585 million lbs. (2.539 million metric tons), up 7.0 percent from 2022 with consumption of 15.9 lbs. (7.2 kg.) per capita, up 8.9 percent from the previous year. Export volume will decline by 11.8 percent in 2023 to 360 million lbs. (163,000 metric tons).
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2021
(actual)
|
2022
(update)
|
Difference % 2021
to 2022
|
2023
(projection)
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
44,899
|
46,206
|
+2.9
|
46,750
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
96.6
|
98.9
|
+2.4
|
100.2
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,355
|
7,278
|
-1.1
|
7,315
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
16.4
|
15.8
|
-3.6
|
15.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,558
|
5,222
|
-6.0
|
5,585
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
15.3
|
14.6
|
-4.6
|
15.9
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
548
|
408
|
-25.6
|
360
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.9
|
7.8
|
-21.2
|
6.4
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released March 14th 2023
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume over 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton.
Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys posted in each end of month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.