Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-August 2023.                   

OVERVIEW

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-August 2023 attained 2,446,892 metric tons, 2.2 percent less than for January-August 2022 (2,500,842 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports declined by 9.3 percent to $3,176 million ($3,501 million).

Total export volume of turkey products during January-August 2023 attained 133,753 metric tons, 5.2 percent more than in January-August 2022 (127,184 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports declined by 7.5 percent to $393.0 million ($424.9 million).

Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 97 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, unit value of leg quarters increased consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards have reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production. Mild overproduction is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet during the remainder of 2033.

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for October 2023.

On October 18th 2023 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2022 (actual), a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024.

The 2023 projection for broiler production is 46,494 million lbs. (21.134 million metric tons) up 0.6 percent from 2022 but a 0.4 percent downward adjustment from the September report. USDA projects per capita consumption of 99.5 lbs. (45.2 kg.), up 0.6 percent from 2022. Exports will attain 7,303 million lbs. (3.320 million metric tons), 0.3 percent below the previous year.

The 2024 USDA forecast for production will be 47,110 million lbs. (21.414 million metric tons) up 1.3 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 0.7 percent to 101.2 lbs. (46.0 kg). Exports will be 1.1 percent higher than 2023 to 7,380 million lbs. (3.355 million metric tons) equivalent to 16.7 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released October 18th 2023

The October USDA projection for the turkey industry in 2023 included annual production of 5,548 million lbs. (2.522 million metric tons), up 6.2 percent from 2022 with consumption of 15.3 lbs. (7.0 kg.) per capita, up 4.8 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 11.8 percent in 2023 to 455 million lbs. (206,800 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2023 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.

The 2024 forecast for turkey production will be 5,640 million lbs. (2.564 million metric tons) up 1.7 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 1.3 percent to 15.5 lbs. (7.0 kg). Exports will be 5.5 percent higher than in 2023 to 480 million lbs. (218,200 metric tons) equivalent to 8.5 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume during 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton. Compared to January to August 2022, exports to China during the first eight months of 2023 were 28 percent lower in volume to 306,887 metric tons and 32 percent lower in value to $516 million.

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, September 24th 2023

Poult Production and Placement:

The September 14th 2023 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 26.77 million eggs in incubators on September 1st 2023 compared to 27.51 million eggs on September 1st 2022* The September 2023 set was down 2.7 percent (738,000 eggs) from September 2022 and 438,000 eggs (1.6 percent) lower than the previous month of August 2023.

A total of 23.87 million poults were hatched during August 2023 down 53,000 poults (0.2 percent) compared to 23.92 million in August 2022*. The August 2023 hatch was up 1.24 million poults (5.5 percent) from the previous month of July 2023.

A total of 22.83 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in August 2023, compared to 22.78 million in August 2022*. The August 2023 placement was 0.2 percent, (51,000 poults) more than the month of August 2022. This data confirms disposal of 1,040,000 poults during the month. Approximately 4.3 percent of the August 2023 hatch was not placed.

For the twelve-month period September 2022 through August 2023 inclusive, 274.1 million poults were hatched and 255.6 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 18.5 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.7 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

 

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, July 26th 2023.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the July 19th 2023 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports 966.2 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from June 24th through July 15th inclusive. This quantity was up less than one percent compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 754,073 chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.4 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier (79.4 percent for the preceding five-week period). Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents 1.88 million chicks placed per week and 1.78 million broilers processed with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th 2023 through July 15th amounted to 5.24 billion chicks, less than one percent higher than the corresponding period in 2022.

According to the July 24th 2023 edition of USDA Chickens and Eggs pullet breeder chicks hatched and presumably placed during June 2023 amounted to 8.38 million, down 3.8 percent (332,000 pullet chicks) from June 2022 and 266,000 pullet chicks or 3.1 percent less than the previous month of May 2023. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 65.2 million on June 1st 2023, 2.8 percent higher (1.78 million hens) than on June 1st 2022.

Broiler Production

As documented in the July 21st USDA Broiler Market News Report for the processing week ending July 15th 2023, 168.9 million broilers were processed at 6.41 lbs. live. This was 1.1 percent more than the 167.0 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of June 2023 and 0.6 percent more than the 167.9 million processed during the corresponding week in July 2022. Broilers processed in 2023 to date amounted to 4.64 billion, 1.0 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2022.

 

Based on the August 12th, 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA has projected chicken exports for 2022 with a forecast for 2023.

Broiler meat exports will amount to 3.3 million metric tons in 2022 valued at $4.2 billion.  For 2023, volume and value will be unchanged, representing a unit price excluding feet, which are not federally inspected, at $1,272 per metric ton.

The 2023 exports of all agricultural products will amount to $193.5 billion in 2023, balanced by imports of $197.0 billion resulting in a negative annual balance of $3.5 billion.