Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, June 25th 2024

Poult Production and Placement:

The June 14th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 22.96 million eggs in incubators on June 1st 2024 compared to 24.46 million eggs on June 1st 2023* The June 2024 set was down 4.49 million eggs (16.4 percent) from June 2023 and 2.04 million eggs (8.2 percent) less than the previous month of May 2024.

A total of 21.76 million poults were hatched during May 2024 down 1.82 million poults (7.7 percent) compared to 23.58 million in May 2023*. The May 2024 hatch was up 0.39 million poults (1.8 percent) from the previous month of April.

A total of 20.59 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in May 2024, compared to 22.30 million in May 2023*. The May 2024 placement was 1.71 million poults (1.5 percent) more than in April 2023* 2023. This data confirms disposal of 1.13 million poults during the month. Approximately 5.4 percent of the May 2024 hatch was not placed.

For the twelve-month period June 2023 through May 2024 inclusive, 264.23 million poults were hatched and 246.73 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 17.50 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.6 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

Turkey Production:

The June 20th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection*:-

• For the processing week ending June 15th 2024, 1,521 million hens were processed at 17.3 lbs. live. This was 10.6 percent less than the 1.702 million hens processed during the corresponding week in May 2024 and 18.0 percent less than the 1.854 million processed during the corresponding week in June 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 38.2 million, 9.9 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 21.19 million lbs. (9,634 metric tons). This quantity was 12.1 percent less than the 24.10 million lbs. for corresponding week in May 2024 and 11.9 percent less than the 24.06 million lbs. during the corresponding week in June 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 517.4 million lbs. (215,050 metric tons). This quantity is 9.9 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.

*The most USDA recent report available

• For the processing week ending June 15th 2024, 2.127 million toms were processed at 45.3 lbs. live. This was 5.9 percent more than the 2.009 million toms processed during the corresponding week in May 2024 and 0.7 percent less than the 2.141 million during the corresponding week in June 2023. Year-to-date 47.60 million toms have been processed, 0.9 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 77.6 million lbs. (35,288 metric tons). This quantity was 0.3 percent more than the 77.4 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in May 2024 and 7.6 percent more than the 74.23 million lbs. during the corresponding week in June 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 1,718.4 million lbs. (781,074 metric tons). This quantity is 1.7 percent more than the corresponding period in 2023.

 

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, June 25th 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the June 12th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 901.9 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from the week ending May 25th 2024 through June 15th 2024 inclusive. This quantity was one percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 758.9 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.1 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, unchanged from the preceding five-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.89 million chicks placed per week and 1.80 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through June 15th 2024 chick placements attained 4.52 billion, up one percent from the corresponding week in 2023.

According to the June 24th 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during May 2024 amounted to 8.71 million, up 0.8 percent (71,000 pullet chicks) from May 2023 and 0.9 percent (0.56 million pullet chicks) more than the previous month of April 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 61.7 million on June 1st 2024, 3.5 percent less (2.26 million hens) than on June 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the June 20th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending June 15th 2024, 165.0 million broilers were processed at 6.50 lbs. live. This was 0.8 percent less than the 166.3 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of May 2024 and 1.2 percent less than the 167.0 million processed during the corresponding week in June 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 3.891 million, 2.2 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week in June was 815.2 million lbs. (370.56 metric tons). This was 1.2 percent less than the 825.1 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in May 2024 and less than 0.1 percent percent more than the 814.9 million lbs. during the corresponding week in May 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2024 to date RTC broiler production attained 19,128 million lbs. (8.69 million metric tons). This quantity was 0.5 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023.

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price on June 20th 2024 was down 0.6 cents per lb. or 0.5 percent lower to 131.4 cents per lb. compared to the corresponding week in May 2024. The attached USDA figures denote average prices over three-years.

Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets. Inflation is increasing consumer awareness of value with chicken benefitting at the expense of beef and pork

 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-April 2024.

OVERVIEW

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-April 2024 attained 1,107,334 metric tons, 11.1 percent lower than in January-April 2023 (1,254,391 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports decreased by 4.8 percent to $1,487.9 million ($1,557.1 million).

Total export volume of turkey products during January-April 2024 attained 68,305 metric tons, 26.5 percent more than in January-April 2023 (54,016 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 9.9 percent to $196.3 million ($178.6 million).

Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 97 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, unit value of leg quarters increased consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

HPAI is now accepted to be a panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of five continents with seasonal and sporadic outbreaks. The incidence rate and location of cases in the U.S. limits eligibility for export depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations

Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production to the extent of overproduction. Mild oversupply is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet extending into 2024.

EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT

During January-April 2024 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,120,766 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared), down 10.8 percent from January-April 2023. Exports were valued at $1,528 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,363 per metric ton.

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports for January-April 2024 by proportion and unit price for each category compared with the corresponding months in 2023 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

• Chicken parts (excluding feet) 5%; Unit value $1,277 per metric ton ($1,202)
• Prepared chicken 9%; Unit value $4,212 per metric ton ($4,259)
• Whole chicken 6%; Unit value $1,570 per metric ton ($1,592)
• Composite Total 0%; Av. value $1,363 per metric ton ($1,263)

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports during January-April 2024 compared with the corresponding months of 2023:-

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for May 2024.

On June 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.

The 2024 projection for broiler production is 46,865 million lbs. (21.302 million metric tons) up 1.0 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.6 lbs. (46.2 kg.) for 2024, up 2.1 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,734 million lbs. (3.061 million metric tons), 7.3 percent below the previous year.

The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,550 million lbs. (21.614 million metric tons) up 1.5 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.5 lb. to 102.1 lbs. (46.4 kg). Exports will be 2.6 percent lower compared to 2024 at 6,825 million lbs. (3.102 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.4 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18th 2024

The June 18th USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,234 million lbs. (2.379 million metric tons), down 4.1 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 14.2 lbs. (6.5 kg.) per capita, down 4.1 percent from the previous year Export volume will increase by 5.3 percent in 2024 to 515 million lbs. (234,090 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.

The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,320 million lbs. (2.418 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.7 percent to 14.3 lbs. (6.5 kg). Exports will be unchanged in 2025 at 515 million lbs. (234,000 metric tons) equivalent to 9.7 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume during 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton. Compared to 2022, exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first four months of 2024 broiler exports to China were down 60.2 percent compared to the corresponding months in 2023 at 66,336 metric tons. Value was down 52.3 percent to $129 million. Depending on trade and political relations between the U.S and China in 2025 exports could be substantially lower.

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

Based on the August 12th, 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA has projected chicken exports for 2022 with a forecast for 2023.

Broiler meat exports will amount to 3.3 million metric tons in 2022 valued at $4.2 billion.  For 2023, volume and value will be unchanged, representing a unit price excluding feet, which are not federally inspected, at $1,272 per metric ton.

The 2023 exports of all agricultural products will amount to $193.5 billion in 2023, balanced by imports of $197.0 billion resulting in a negative annual balance of $3.5 billion.