Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for October 2023.

On October 18th 2023 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2022 (actual), a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024.
The 2023 projection for broiler production is 46,494 million lbs. (21.134 million metric tons) up 0.6 percent from 2022 but a 0.4 percent downward adjustment from the September report. USDA projects per capita consumption of 99.5 lbs. (45.2 kg.), up 0.6 percent from 2022. Exports will attain 7,303 million lbs. (3.320 million metric tons), 0.3 percent below the previous year.
The 2024 USDA forecast for production will be 47,110 million lbs. (21.414 million metric tons) up 1.3 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 0.7 percent to 101.2 lbs. (46.0 kg). Exports will be 1.1 percent higher than 2023 to 7,380 million lbs. (3.355 million metric tons) equivalent to 16.7 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
Parameter
|
2022
(actual)
|
2023
(projection)
|
Difference % 2022
to 2023
|
2024
(forecast)
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,206
|
46,494
|
+0.6
|
47,110
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
98.9
|
99.5
|
+0.6
|
100.2
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,290
|
7,303
|
+0.3
|
7,380
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.8
|
15.7
|
-0.6
|
16.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,222
|
5,548
|
+6.2
|
5,640
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.6
|
15.3
|
+4.8
|
15.5
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
407
|
455
|
+11.8
|
480
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
7.8
|
8.2
|
+5.1
|
8.5
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released October 18th 2023
The October USDA projection for the turkey industry in 2023 included annual production of 5,548 million lbs. (2.522 million metric tons), up 6.2 percent from 2022 with consumption of 15.3 lbs. (7.0 kg.) per capita, up 4.8 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 11.8 percent in 2023 to 455 million lbs. (206,800 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2023 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2024 forecast for turkey production will be 5,640 million lbs. (2.564 million metric tons) up 1.7 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 1.3 percent to 15.5 lbs. (7.0 kg). Exports will be 5.5 percent higher than in 2023 to 480 million lbs. (218,200 metric tons) equivalent to 8.5 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume during 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton. Compared to January to August 2022, exports to China during the first eight months of 2023 were 28 percent lower in volume to 306,887 metric tons and 32 percent lower in value to $516 million.
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.