Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, September 26th 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the September 20th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 976.3 million eggs were set over five weeks extending from the week ending August 24th 2024 through September 14th 2024 inclusive. This was three percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 773.1 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.7 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, up 0.3 percent from the preceding four-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.93 million chicks placed per week and 1.83 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through September 14th 2024 chick placements attained 7.01 billion, up one percent from the corresponding week in 2023.

According to the September 23rd 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs, pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during August 2024 amounted to 8.70 million, up 5.6 percent (45,960 pullet chicks) from August 2023 and 12.0 percent (934,000 pullet chicks) more than the previous month of July 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 63.7 million on September 1st 2024, 1.8 percent (1.1 million hens) more than on September 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the September 19th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending September 14th 2024, 170.3 million broilers were processed at 6.68 lbs. live. This was 1.7 percent more than the 167.5 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of August 2024 and 0.2 percent more than the 169.9 million processed during the corresponding week in September 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 6,042 million, 1.7 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

 

Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, August 25th 2024

Poult Production and Placement:

The September 13th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.98 million eggs in incubators on September 1st 2024 compared to 26.64 million eggs on September 1st 2023* The September 2024 set was down 1.65 million eggs (6.2 percent) from September 2023 and 0.12 million eggs (0.5 percent) more than the previous month of July 2024.

A total of 21.01 million poults were hatched during August 2024 down 2.44 million poults (10.4 percent) compared to 23.45 million in August 2023*. The August 2024 hatch was down 0.11 million poults (0.5 percent) from the previous month of July.

A total of 20.28 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in August 2024, compared to 22.43 million in August 2023*. The August 2024 placement was 0.70 million poults (3.4 percent) less than in July 2024. This data confirms disposal of 0.73 million poults during the month. Approximately 3.5 percent of the August 2024 hatch was not placed.

For the twelve-month period September 2023 through August 2024 inclusive, 255.99 million poults were hatched and 238.94 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 17.05 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.7 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

Turkey Production:

The September 19th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

• For the processing week ending September 14th 2024, 1.511 million hens were processed at 17.5 lbs. live. This was 10.3 percent less than the 1.683 million hens processed during the corresponding week in August 2024 and 16.4 percent less than the 1.808 million processed during the corresponding week in September 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 58.58 million, 12.1 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 21.27 million lbs. (9,670 metric tons). This quantity was 10.7 percent less than the 23.82 million lbs. for corresponding week in September 2024 and 5.7 percent less than the 25.27 million lbs. during the corresponding week in August 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 800.54 million lbs. (363,880 metric tons). This quantity is 13.1 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• For the processing week ending September 14th 2024, 2.203 million toms were processed at 42.6 lbs. live. This was 1.9 percent more than the 2.161 million toms processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 8.7 percent more than the 2.027 million during the corresponding week in August 2023. Year-to-date 73.60 million toms have been processed, less than 0.3 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 75.6 million lbs. (34,347 metric tons). This quantity was 0.1 percent more than the 75.5 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in August 2024 and 8.8 percent less than the 69.4 million lbs. during the corresponding week in September 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 2,6334 million lbs. (1.197 million metric tons). This quantity is 1.0 percent more than the corresponding period in 2023.

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for September 2024. 

On September 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.

The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,109 million lbs. (21.403 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.0 lbs. (46.4 kg.) for 2024, up 2.6 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,766 million lbs. (3.075 million metric tons), 6.7 percent below the previous year.

The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,675 million lbs. (21.670 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.5 lb. to 102.5 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.6 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,875 million lbs. (3.125 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 18th 2024

The September USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,130 million lbs. (2.332 million metric tons), down 6.0 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 3.5 percent in 2024 to 507 million lbs. (230,455 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.

The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,175 million lbs. (2.352 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 13.8 lbs. (6.3 kg). Exports will be 5.0 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

 Compared to 2022 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-July 2024.

OVERVIEW

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-July 2024 attained 1,903,088 metric tons, 11.0 percent lower than in January-July 2023 (2,137,362 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports decreased by 5.1 percent to $2,631 million ($2,771 million).

Total export volume of turkey products during January-July 2024 attained 124,050 metric tons, 12.1 percent more than in January-July 2023 (110,625 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 10.8 percent to $369 million ($333 million).

Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, the value of leg quarters increased in unit value consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. To increase sales volume and value the U.S. industry will have to become more customer-centric offering value-added presentations with attributes required by importers. Whether this will increase margins is questionable given the by-product status of leg quarters. A more profitable strategy for the U.S. industry would be to develop products using dark meat to compete with and displace pork in the domestic market.

HPAI is now accepted to be a panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of six continents with seasonal and sporadic outbreaks. The incidence rate and location of cases in the U.S. limits eligibility for export depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations

Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production to the extent of overproduction. Mild oversupply is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet extending into 2024.

EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT

During January-July 2024 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,926,071 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared), down 10.4 percent from January-July 2023. Exports were valued at $2,631 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,382 per metric ton.

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports for January-July 2024 by proportion and unit price for each category compared with the corresponding months in 2023 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

• Chicken parts (excluding feet) 3%; Unit value $1,314 per metric ton ($1,245)
• Prepared chicken 2%; Unit value $4,200 per metric ton ($4,376)
• Whole chicken 5%; Unit value $1,674 per metric ton ($1,646)
• Composite Total 0%; Av. value $1,407 per metric ton ($1,309)

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports during January-July 2024 compared with the corresponding months of 2023:-

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for July 2024. 

On July 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.

The 2024 projection for broiler production is 46,700 million lbs. (21.227 million metric tons) up 0.5 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.3 lbs. (46.1 kg.) for 2024, up 1.8 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,744 million lbs. (3.065 million metric tons), 5.2 percent below the previous year.

The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,550 million lbs. (21.614 million metric tons) up 1.8 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 102.0 lbs. (46.3 kg). Exports will be 1.9 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,744 million lbs. (3.065 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released July 18th 2024

The July USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,214 million lbs. (2.330 million metric tons), down 4.4 percent from 2022. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 14.2 lbs. (6.5 kg.) per capita, down 4.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 4.1 percent in 2024 to 510 million lbs. (231,818 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.

The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,280 million lbs. (2.400 million metric tons) up 1.3 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 14.1 lbs. (6.4 kg). Exports will be 3.9 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and Canada nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first five months of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by quantity was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 78,710 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $154 million

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

Based on the August 12th, 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA has projected chicken exports for 2022 with a forecast for 2023.

Broiler meat exports will amount to 3.3 million metric tons in 2022 valued at $4.2 billion.  For 2023, volume and value will be unchanged, representing a unit price excluding feet, which are not federally inspected, at $1,272 per metric ton.

The 2023 exports of all agricultural products will amount to $193.5 billion in 2023, balanced by imports of $197.0 billion resulting in a negative annual balance of $3.5 billion.