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OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the June12th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #661, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were understandably unchanged from the May edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted, recent annual crop yields and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and tariff policy influencing exports.

The June 12th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 87.4 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 82.7 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The June 12th WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 181.0 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 52.5 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The June 12th USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was reduced 2.8 percent to 1,750 million bushels due to a corresponding reduction in beginning stock. The June USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was unchanged at 295 million bushels.

The June 12th 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 420 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,025 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged at $310 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required from Commodity Credit Corporation funding if importing nations respond negatively to protective and punitive tariffs imposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the June 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the ongoing La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the previous and current market years.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the June Report. Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 crop and the March 31st Prospective Plantings Report, the June WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 15,820 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was retained at 5,900 million bushels. As of 9th June, 97 percent of the corn crop had been planted with 87 percent emerged. The Food and Seed category was held at 1,385 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was unchanged at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends and onset of summer driving. Projected corn exports were predicted to attain 2,675 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,750 million bushels or 10.2 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the June WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 420 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on June 12th after the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 439 cents per bushel, 4.5 percent above the USDA June projection.

JUNE 2025 WASDE #661 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 420 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from May)

SOYBEANS

Production parameters for soybeans were unchanged from the June Report. Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop and an estimated yield of 52.5 bushels per acre albeit with reduced acreage planted, the June WASDE Report projected the soybean harvest to be 4,340 million bushels. As of 9th June, 90 percent of the soybean crop had been planted with 75 percent emerged. Crush volume was projected at 2,490 million bushels despite increased industry capacity. Projected exports were predicted to be 1,815 million bushels notwithstanding the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 295 million bushels, down 22.3 percent from the December WASDE report reflecting the 2024-2025 season. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE June projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025 harvest was 1,025 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on June 12th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,042 cents per bushel, 1.6 percent above the June USDA projection.

JUNE 2025 WASDE #661 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,025 cents per bushel (Unchanged from May)

SOYBEAN MEAL

Production parameters for soybean meal were unchanged from the June Report. The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 58.7 million tons, consistent with the soybean crush volume of 2,490 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. According to NOPA crush volumes in March and April were respectively 194.5 and 190.2 million bushels. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,325 million tons. Exports were estimated at 18.0 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $310 is unchanged since the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 16H00 EDT on June 12th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $295 per ton, down 5.1 percent compared to the May WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 JUNE 2025 WASDE #661 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton (Unchanged from May)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the June 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.551 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher with an increase for India. Foreign barley production is up slightly, reflecting increases for the EU and Argentina that are partly offset by a decline for Syria”.

“Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger barley exports for Argentina. For 2024/25, corn exports are lowered for Argentina but raised for the United States and Canada. Corn imports are lowered for China and Canada with increases for Turkey, Indonesia, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced, with cuts to China, South Africa, India, and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina.

OILSEEDS:

“Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher beginning stocks, unchanged production, slightly higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on a one-million-ton reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date. Crush for 2025/26 is raised 0.1 million tons on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom”.

“With exports unchanged, global ending stocks are raised 1.0 million tons to 125.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for China. Another notable revision is higher palm oil production for Malaysia for 2024/25 and 2025/26 based on an expected recovery after widespread flooding impacted operations earlier in the year”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)