Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for September 2024.
On September 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.
The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,109 million lbs. (21.403 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.0 lbs. (46.4 kg.) for 2024, up 2.6 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,766 million lbs. (3.075 million metric tons), 6.7 percent below the previous year.
The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,675 million lbs. (21.670 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.5 lb. to 102.5 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.6 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,875 million lbs. (3.125 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2023
(actual)
|
2024
(projection)
|
2025
(forecast)
|
Difference
2023 to 2024
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,387
|
47,109
|
47,675
|
+1.6
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
99.5
|
102.0
|
102.5
|
+2.5
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,260
|
6,776
|
6,875
|
-6.8
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.7
|
14.4
|
14.4
|
-8.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,457
|
5,130
|
5,175
|
-6.0
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.8
|
13.9
|
13.8
|
-6.1
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
490
|
507
|
530
|
+3.5
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.0
|
9.9
|
10.2
|
+10.0
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 18th 2024
The September USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,130 million lbs. (2.332 million metric tons), down 6.0 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 3.5 percent in 2024 to 507 million lbs. (230,455 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,175 million lbs. (2.352 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 13.8 lbs. (6.3 kg). Exports will be 5.0 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
Compared to 2022 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.