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Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, November 27th 2024

Poult Production and Placement:

The November 17th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.98 million eggs in incubators on November 1st 2024 compared to 25.54 million eggs on November 1st 2023* The November 2024 set was down 0.56 million eggs (2.2 percent) from November 2023 and 32,000 eggs (less than 0.1 percent percent) from than the previous month of October 2024.

A total of 20.73 million poults were hatched during October 2024 down 1.94 million poults (8.5 percent) compared to 22.67 million in October 2023*. The October 2024 hatch was up 0.50 million poults (2.5 percent) from the previous month of September.

A total of 18.77 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in October 2024, compared to 20.65 million in October 2023*. The October 2024 placement was 0.85 million poults (4.7 percent) more than in September 2024. This data confirms disposal of 1.96 million poults during the month. Approximately 9.5 percent of the October 2024 hatch was not placed.

For the twelve-month period November 2023 through October 2024 inclusive, 252.39 million poults were hatched and 235.70 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 16.69 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.6 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

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Turkey Production:

The November 20th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

• For the processing week ending November 16th 2024, 2,242 million hens were processed at 15.7 lbs. live. This was 62.5 percent more than the 1.380 million hens processed during the corresponding week in October 2024 and 12.7 percent more than the 1.989 million processed during the corresponding week in November 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 75.8 million, 11.1 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 28.25 million lbs. (11,475 metric tons). This quantity was 43.4 percent more than the 19.70 million lbs. for corresponding week in October 2024 and 11.1 percent more than the 25.43 million lbs. during the corresponding week in November 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 1,039 million lbs. (472,273 metric tons). This quantity is 11.2 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• For the processing week ending November 16th 2024, 2.070 million toms were processed at 43.7 lbs. live. This was 7.9 percent less than the 2.247 million toms processed during the corresponding week in October 2024 and 4.4 percent less than the 2.166 million during the corresponding week in November 2023. Year-to-date 92.54 million toms have been processed, 0.6 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 72.7 million lbs. (33,024 metric tons). This quantity was 8.7 percent less than the 79.7 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in October 2024 and 4.5 percent less than the 76.1 million lbs. during the corresponding week in November 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 3,304 million lbs. (1.502 million metric tons). This quantity is 0.4 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023.

Wholesale Prices

The National average frozen hen price (8 to 16 lbs.) for conventional birds during the week ending November 22nd was 96.3 cents per lb., 0.6 cents per lb. lower than the previous month in 2024 and down 42 cents per lb. from the three-year average of approximately 138 cents per lb. The following prices rounded to the nearest cent were documented in the new format report for domestic and export trading for November 2024 as reported on November 22nd:-

Inventories:

On November 18th 2024 cold storage holdings at selected centers amounted to 70,929 lbs., 16.9 percent less than the inventory of 85,324 lbs. on November 1st 2024.

October Frozen Inventory

The November 25th edition of the USDA Cold Storage Report issued monthly, documented a total turkey stock of 307.7 million lbs. (139,880 metric tons) on October 31st 2024, equivalent to 1.7 weeks of normal seasonal RTE combined production of toms and hens and down 3.7 percent compared to the inventory on October 31st 2023. The October 31st 2024 value was 27.8 percent below the September 30th 2024 inventory. This change is consistent with seasonal demand.

• The Whole Turkey category of 135.31 million lbs. representing 44.0 percent of total storage on October 31st 2024 was 27.8 percent lower than the adjusted inventory for the previous month and 8.8 percent lower than on October 31st
• Tom carcasses in storage decreased by 7.7 percent from October 31st 2023 to 70.3 million lbs. on October 31st Tom carcasses decreased 47.8 percent during October 2024 compared to the previous month of September 2023 responding to seasonal demand.
• Hen carcasses in storage decreased by 9.9 percent from September 30th 2023 to 65.0 million lbs. on October 31st Hen carcasses decreased 30.3 percent during October 2024 compared to the previous month of September 2024 attributed to seasonal demand.
• Breasts in storage increased 10.2 percent from October 31st 2023 to 63.1 million lbs. on October 31st 2024 but inventory was down 15.0 percent from the previous month of September 2024.
• The “Other” (10.1 percent of inventory) and “Unclassified” (22.5 percent) categories collectively amounted to 100,339 million lbs. or 32.6 percent of inventory on October 31st The magnitude of these two non-specified categories suggests that the USDA should attempt to classify product more accurately as to specific product.

October 2024 Production

According to the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on November 25th covering, October 2024, comprised 23 working days, one more than October 2023. The following values were documented:-

• During October 2024, 19.39 million young turkeys were processed, 0.94 million birds or 4.6 percent less than October 2023;
• Total live weight in October 2024 attained 614.32 million lbs., 7.12 million lbs. or 1.2 percent less than October 2023;
• Average live weight in October 2024 was 31.68 lbs., up 1.12 lb. or 3.7 percent compared to October 2023;
• RTC in October 2024 attained 489.00 million lbs., down 6.60 million lbs., or 1.3 percent from October 2023;
• Yield in October 2024 was 80.4 percent compared to 79.7 percent in October 2023.
• The proportion of frozen product in October 2024 attained 35.8 percent of total RTC compared to 35.0 percent in October 2023;
• During October 2024 ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.27 percent of live weight, unchanged from October 2023;
• During October 2024, 1.43 percent of RTC weight was condemned compared to 1.27 percent in October 2023.

Comments:

The ratio of hens to toms slaughtered attained 1.0 to 1.2, year-to-date. On an RTC basis the ratio was 1.0 to 3.2.

Export data for turkey products during 2023 and the provisional production and consumption data for 2024 are posted under the STATISTICS tab. During 2023 volume of turkey exports attained 221,920 metric tons up 20.2 percent from the corresponding months in 2023. Value was down 2.0 percent to $628 million. Unit value was down 18.5 percent to $2,829 per metric ton denoting export of lower priced products. Over January to September 2024 exports of turkey products attained 164,124 metric tons valued at $491 million up respectively 4.9 and 8.6 percent from the corresponding months in 2023.

From January 2022 through late-December 2023 losses of turkeys depleted as a result of HPAI attained approximately 14.1 million birds in eight states. This volume is equivalent to the combined production of toms and hens over 3.8 weeks with a nominal average production of 3.7 million harvested birds per week. Incident cases continued in 2024 with cumulative depletion of approximately 1.6 million birds to date with the most recent losses in California from mid-October through November to date. Migratory waterfowl have commenced their southward migration along all four U.S. flyways over areas with concentrations of turkey production. This presumes local aggregation of non-migratory waterfowl in addition to migratory and resident birds that are reservoirs and disseminators of virus as denoted by cases in backyard flocks since August and in live markets in Florida.

USDA Annual Production

The USDA Turkeys Raised report issued September 27th, quantified the 2023-2024 turkey production by state as:-

“Production in the United States during 2024 is forecasted at 205 million, down 6 percent from the number raised during 2023. The top six states will account for 67 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2024.

• Minnesota, at 33.5 million turkeys, down 13 percent from the previous year.
• North Carolina produced 27.5 million turkeys, down 5 percent from a year ago.
• Arkansas produced 25.0 million turkeys, down 7 percent from last year.
• Indiana produced 20.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year.
• Missouri produced 15.5 million turkeys, down 9 percent from last year.
• Virginia is down 1 percent from the previous year at 15.4 million turkeys”.