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Email Content: Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q1 2022


Rabobank issued the Poultry Quarterly covering the first three months of 2022 in mid-December.  Lead author Nan-Dirk Mulder reviewed global trends in chicken production and profitability with comments on trade, domestic and export demand and ingredient costs for the major nations considered.


In a generally optimistic report, Rabobank project a two percent global growth in demand for chicken.  This will be reflected in higher unit revenue, but offset by escalation in ingredient and labor costs.  Avian influenza remains a concern in Europe and Asia with African swine fever remaining as a factor determining availability of animal protein.  COVID will be an unknown factor influencing both demand and availability of labor. 



Specific comments on producing nations included:-

  • In China, wet markets represent a lower proportion of sales of chicken but the market for white-feathered broilers is saturated.
  •  In Thailand COVID has impacted the availability of labor, seriously reducing exports since this nation relies on hand deboning and preparation of high-value specialty products. 
  • For Japan and the EU, the report considered major producers of chicken and continued imports. 
  • U.S. growth in 2022 will increase by slightly more than 2.0 percent.  Export volume will increase by approximately one percent, but value will be higher compared to 2021. 
  • Exports from Brazil will increase in volume and carry higher prices.  Although China represents 15 percent of chicken exports, volumes are increasing to the Philippines, the UAE, Japan, and the EU.  Brazil is gaining market share in Mexico with a 600 percent increase to 99,000 metric tons in 2021.  Brazil should stabilize exports to Saudi Arabia following suspension of plants in mid-2021.  Domestic demand may be restrained by economic conditions and COVID.
  • E.U. prices will increase in 2022 for whole birds and portions.  Avian influenza is an anticipated restraint together with low availability of labor and high ingredient cost.  The E.U. has lost markets in the U.K. after Brexit and to Chile.  Reduced imports will be recorded from the U.K., Ukraine, and Chile.  Imports from Thailand dropped by approximately one third to 28,000 metric tons in Q3 of 2021 due to inability of that nation to supply.  The capacity of EU nations to control COVID will influence production and prices during Q1 of 2022 and possibly thereafter.
  • Demand and hence prices are increasing in Mexico and this trend will continue through 2022. Production will expand by two percent in volume, but imports will be higher with imports from the U.S. and also Brazil that now account for 10 percent of the market.
  • In Russia meat prices will escalate but margins will be offset by increased feed costs that are partly constrained by export taxes on soybeans and grains.
  • The balance between supply and demand in China has resulted in relatively weak to fluctuating prices for white-feathered live birds.  With restoration of pork production progressing, imports have declined and profitability of chicken production in 2022 is questionable.

Copyright © 2023 Simon M. Shane