Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for February 2023.
On February 14th 2023 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.
Compared to 2021, broiler RTC production in 2022 was almost unchanged in the January 2023 report at 46,201 million lbs. RTC (21.001 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 3.4 percent higher compared to 2021 at 99.9 lbs. (45.4 kg.). Exports will represent 15.8 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,278 million lbs. (3.308 million metric tons) comprising RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.
The projection for 2023 is for 46,700 million lbs. (21.227 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 100.2 lbs. (45.5 kg.) and exports of 7,315 million lbs. (3.325 million metric tons).
Turkey production for 2022 compared to 2021 will be 6.0 percent lower at 5,222 million lbs. (2.374 million metric tons) RTC. The February 2023 projection for per capita consumption in 2022 was 4.6 percent lower than in 2021 at 14.6 lbs. (6.6 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was reduced 25.6 percent to 408 million lbs. (0.185 million metric tons) from 2021. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey for 2022 are considered to be realistic, given the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.
The February 2023 USDA forecast for the turkey industry in 2023 comprised annual production of 5,560 million lbs. (2.527 million metric tons) with consumption of 15.9 lbs. (7.2 kg.) per capita.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2021 (actual)
|
2022 (update)
|
Difference % 2021 to 2022
|
2023 (projection)
|
|
Broilers
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
44,899
|
46,201
|
+2.9
|
46,700
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
96.6
|
99.9
|
+3.4
|
100.2
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,355
|
7,278
|
-1.1
|
7,315
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
16.4
|
15.8
|
-3.6
|
15.6
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,558
|
5,222
|
-6.0
|
5,560
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
15.3
|
14.6
|
-4.6
|
15.9
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
548
|
408
|
-25.6
|
370
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.9
|
7.8
|
-21.2
|
7.2
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released February 14th 2023
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The projection takes into account declining exports to China, ranked second by volume in 2021 with imports of 460,159 metric tons valued at $864 million with a unit price of $1,875 per ton. Average unit price for U.S. broiler exports including parts and feet but excluding imports by China, the first-ranked importer attained $1,139 per metric ton during 2021. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume over 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton.
Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys and exports posted in each edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.