Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for April 2023.
On May 18th 2023 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2022 (actual), a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024.
Broiler RTC production in 2022 was unchanged in the May 2023 report at 46,206 million lbs. RTC (21.003 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 was 98.9 lbs. (45.0 kg.). Exports represented 15.8 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,278 million lbs. (3.308 million metric tons) comprising RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.
The 2023 projection for broiler production is 47,048 million lbs. (21.385 million metric tons) up 1.8 percent from 2022. USDA projects per capita consumption of 100.5 lbs. (45.7 kg.), up 1.6 percent from 2022. Exports will attain 7,383 million lbs. (3.356 million metric tons), 1.4 percent above the previous year.
The 2024 USDA forecast for production will be 47,820 million lbs. (21.736 million metric tons) up 3.5 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 2.3 percent to 101.2 lbs. (46.0 kg). Exports will be 2.5 percent higher than 2023 to 7,570 million lbs. (3.340 million metric tons) equivalent to 15.8 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2022
(actual)
|
2023
(projection)
|
Difference % 2022
to 2023
|
2024
(forecast)
|
|
Broilers
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,206
|
47,048
|
+1.8
|
47,820
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
98.9
|
100.5
|
+1.6
|
101.2
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,278
|
7,383
|
+1.4
|
7,570
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.8
|
15.7
|
-0.6
|
15.8
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,222
|
5,404
|
+3.5
|
5,640
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.6
|
15.1
|
+3.4
|
15.7
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
408
|
370
|
-9.3
|
390
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
7.8
|
6.9
|
-11.5
|
6.9
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released May 18th 2023
Turkey production for 2022 was 5,222 million lbs. (2.374 million metric tons) RTC. The May 2023 projection for per capita consumption was down 4.6 percent from 2021 at 14.6 lbs. (6.6 kg.), despite extensive promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume for 2022 was 408 million lbs. (0.185 million metric tons).
The May 2023 USDA projection for the turkey industry included annual production of 5,404 million lbs. (2.456 million metric tons), up 3.5 percent from 2022 with consumption of 15.1 lbs. (6.7 kg.) per capita, up 3.4 percent from the previous year. Export volume will decline by 9.3 percent in 2023 to 370 million lbs. (168,000 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2023 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories.
The 2024 forecast for turkey production will be 5,640 million lbs. (2.564 million metric tons) up 4.3 percent from 2023 with per capita consumption up 0.6 percent to 15.8 lbs. (7.2 kg). Exports will be 5.4 percent higher than in 2023 to 390 million lbs. (177,273 metric tons) equivalent to 6.9 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume over 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton.
Subscribers are referred to the monthly update of production and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys posted in each end of month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.