According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report SF2023-0034 released on October 11th, both H5N1 and H7N6 strains of avian influenza are responsible for extensive losses in both the broiler and egg industries. Although the broiler industry has been less affected than egg production, it is anticipated that losses will escalate. Independent hatcheries have restricted supplies of chicks based on mortality in parent supply flocks. The two major integrators have also experienced losses. Mortality in both the egg and broiler segments of the South African poultry industry will impact the feed manufacturers with a predicted reduction in demand for corn.
An indication of concern is the consideration of a temporary customs rebate on imported edible offal, MDM, whole chickens and bone-in parts. The temporary rebate may also extend to anti-dumping duties that currently restrict importation of leg quarters from the U.S. The GAIN report states “If implemented, the rebates may increase imports and mitigate against the expected price increase of chicken.” The availability of chicken is not only an economic issue, but it will also have a bearing on the upcoming national election which is expected to show reduced support for the ruling African National Congress Party. The Governor of Louisiana, Huey Long promised a “chicken in every pot” during the Great Depression. This has
become a sine qua non for autocratic governments under pressure. Since the fall of apartheid in 1994 the party in power has failed to deliver on economic reforms or to resolve the problems of progressively diminishing availability of power, water and housing and to suppress corruption and street crime.
The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development has implemented ineffective short term traditional responses to HPAI based on depopulation. Faced with the ongoing introduction of infection by migratory birds coupled with defective biosecurity, introduction of vaccination is now considered a necessary expedient. It is anticipated that a program will commence in November with the support of the South African Poultry Industry.
Over the short term the broiler industry is planning to import fertile eggs in anticipation of losses due to HPAI.
Chicken is the principal animal protein consumed by all demographics in the Republic of South Africa. Replacement with pork is not a viable option given the relatively small production base that is further diminished by concurrent outbreaks of African swine fever.