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Chick-News.com Poultry Industry News, Comments and more by Simon M. Shane

Meat Projection Nov 2024

11/18/2024

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for November 2024.

 

On November 15th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.

 

The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,184 million lbs. (21.417 million metric tons) up 1.7 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.4 lbs. (46.5 kg.) for 2024, up 3.4 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,717 million lbs. (3.053 million metric tons), 7.5 percent below the previous year.

 

The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,850 million lbs. (21.750 million metric tons) up 1.4 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 1.0 lb. to 103.1 lbs. (46.9 kg). Exports will be 1.3 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,780 million lbs. (3.081 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.2 percent of production.

 

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

Parameter

  2023

(actual)

     2024

(projection)

    2025

(forecast)

  Difference

2023 to 2024

 

Broilers

 

 

 

 

Production (million lbs.)

46,387

47,184

  47,850

     +1.4

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

99.5

      102.4

  103.1

     +2.6

Exports (million lbs.)

7,260

6,717

   6,780

     -7.5

Proportion of production (%)

15.7

14.2

    14.2

     -9.5

 

 

 

 

 

Turkeys

 

 

 

 

Production (million lbs.)

5,457

5,122

   5,165

     -6.1

Consumption (lbs. per capita)

14.8

13.9

    13.7

     -6.1

Exports (million lbs.)

490

 502

     530

    +2.9

Proportion of production (%)

 9.0

  9.8

    10.3

  +10.0

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released November 15th 2024

 

 

The November USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,122 million lbs. (2.328 million metric tons), down 6.1 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 2.5 percent in 2024 to 502 million lbs. (228,000 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, limited losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.

 

The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,165 million lbs. (2.348 million metric tons) up 0.8 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 1.4 percent to 13.7 lbs. (6.2 kg). Exports will be 5.6 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.3 percent of production.

 

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

 

 Compared to 2023 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million

 

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.


 
Copyright © 2024 Simon M. Shane