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OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the August12thWorld Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #663, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were updated from previous editions. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage planted, recent annual crop yields, the latest crop progress reports, data relating to domestic use and tariff policy and competition that influence exports.

The August WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 88.7 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 80.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The August WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 188.8 bushels per acre up 4.3 percent from July. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 53.6 bushels per acre up 2.1 percent from July. By comparison yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

The August WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was increased 27.5 percent from July to 2,117 million bushels. The August USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 6.5 percent from July to 290 million bushels due to reduced supply and lower exports.

The August WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 390 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was unchanged at 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was lowered 3.4 percent to $280 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers and especially corn growers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the August 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impacts of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the previous and current market year.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were updated from the July WASDE, influenced by data on crop progress and acreage planted. The August WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,742 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. As of August 10th, 94 and 14 percent of the crop had attained the stages of silking and dent respectively. The “Feed and Residual” category was raised 4.3 percent from July to 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was raised 1.8 percent to 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were raised 7.5 percent to 2,875 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,117 million bushels or 11.8 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the August WASDE report was 390 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on August 12th after the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 394 cents per bushel, 1.0 percent above the USDA projection but down 7.1 percent from July 12th CME price.

AUGUST 2025 WASDE #663 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 390 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Production parameters for corn were updated from the July WASDE, influenced by crop progress data and acreage planted. The August WASDE Report projected a 2025 yield of 53.6 bushels per acre but with reduced acreage planted compared to 2024. The August WASDE projected the soybean crop to be 4,292 million bushels. As of August 10th, 71 percent of the crop was setting pods. Crush volume was unchanged from July at 2,540 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were reduced 6.0 percent to 1,705 million bushels based on the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 290 million bushels, down 6.5 percent from the July WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE August projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was unchanged from July at 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on August 12th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,032 cents per bushel, 2.2 percent above the August USDA projection and 2.5 percent above the July 12th CME price.

AUGUST 2025 WASDE #663 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were retained from July. Production will attain 59.9 million tons, consistent with the unchanged soybean crush volume of 2,540 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,775 million tons. Exports were estimated at 18.7 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $310 is unchanged since the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 16H00 EDT on August 12th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $292 per ton, up 4.3 percent compared to the August WASDE projection of $280 per ton and up 2.8 percent from the July CME price.

 AUGUST 2025 WASDE #663 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$280 per ton

I

MPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the August 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 24.9 million tons higher to 1.572 billion.

This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending

stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and

Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia

extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield

prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada

is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is

reduced with a decline for Uruguay”.

“Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for the United

States and Ukraine but reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the

EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down,

reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for

Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 oilseed production is lowered 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million mainly on lower

soybean, sunflower seed, and cottonseed production. Global sunflower seed production is

lowered 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million on hot and dry weather conditions leading to lower yields for the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia”.

“Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production for 2025/26 is lowered mainly on lower production for the

United States and Serbia. Exports are reduced for the United States but raised for Argentina and

Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are reduced

1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the

United States.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)