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OVERVIEW

Understandably the January 12th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #667 projecting the 2026 season was extensively revised with respect to corn and soybeans from the previous post-shutdown December 9th edition reflecting the 2025 crop. Crop size and ending stocks were derived from previous harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The January WASDE report projected that the 2026 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 91.3 million acres, (90.0 million acres in 2025). The soybean crop will be harvested from an almost unchanged 80.4 million acres, (80.3 million acres in 2025).

The January WASDE yield value for the 2026 corn crop was raised 0.5 bushels to 186.5 bushels per acre. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was held at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2025 reflecting previous harvests. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the 2024 crop.

The January WASDE projection for the 2026 ending stock of corn was raised by 9.8 percent from December to 2,227 million bushels. The January USDA projection for the 2026 ending stock of soybeans was raised 20.7 percent from December to 350 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

The January WASDE raised the projected corn price for the 2026-2027 market year by 10 cents to an average of 410 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was lowered by 30 cents to 1,020 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was lowered from the December  WASDE by $5 to $295 per ton.

USDA commodity prices suggest stable feed costs for livestock and poultry producers given projections for yields, domestic use and exports. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced an allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

 Projections for world output included in the January 2026 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also consider the impact of weather patterns arising from Southern Oscillation events especially on Brazil and Argentina.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans since the 2024-2025 market year and the current year to date.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were updated from the December WASDE, reflecting the predicted yield, and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The January WASDE Report projected a 2026 crop of 17,021 million bushels, compared to 16,752 million bushels for the previous 2025 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was raised 100 million bushels. (1.6 percent) for 2026 to 6,200 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,370 million bushels down 10 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs during winter months. Projected corn exports were held at 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be up 9.8 percent to 2,227 million bushels or 12 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the January WASDE report was 410 cents per bushel. At close of trading after the noon January 12th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 421 cents per bushel, 2.7 percent above the USDA projection and 6.0 percent below the December 9th CME price.

JANUARY 2026 WASDE #667 Summary for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 410 cents per bushel. (Up 10 cents per bushel from the December WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were adjusted from the December WASDE to reflect the 2026 crop. Yield of 53.0 bushels per acre was retained but with a slightly higher area of 81.2 million acres planted compared to 2025. The January WASDE raised the projection of the 2026 soybean crop by 0.2 percent to 4,262 million bushels. Crush volume was raised 0.6 percent from December to 2,570 million bushels consistent with increased demand and industry capacity. Projected exports were reduced by 3.7 percent to 1,575 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 350 million bushels, up 20.7 percent from the December WASDE estimate. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The January USDA projection for the ex-farm seasonal price for soybeans was reduced 30 cents to 1,020 cents per bushel. At close of trading on January 12th following the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,050 cents per bushel, 2.9 percent above the January USDA projection and 3.5 percent below the December 9th CME price.

JANUARY 2026 WASDE #667 Summary for the 2026 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,020 cents per bushel (Down 30 cents per bushel from the December WASDE)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were updated from the December WASDE. Production will be up 0.9 percent to 60.8 million tons, consistent with the 0.6 percent increase in soybean crush volume of 2,570 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 42.0 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.4 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $295 per ton, down $5 per ton from the January WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

At close of trading on January 12th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $298 per ton, up $3 per ton (1.0 percent) compared to the USDA projection of $295 per ton and down 1.0 percent from the December 9th CME price.

 JANUARY 2026 WASDE #667 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

Quantities in thousand short tons

Average Price ex plant:  $295 per ton (Down $5 per ton from the December WASDE)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the January 2026 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast up 14.8 million tons to 1.591 billion.

This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, virtually unchanged trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with an increase Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast up 14.8 million tons to 1.591 billion.

This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, virtually unchanged trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with an increase for China, where production is raised to a record 301.2 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 290.9 million tons, are raised 11.8 million.”

OILSEEDS:

“Foreign 2025/26 oilseed production is raised 2.4 million tons mainly on higher soybean production partly offset by lower cottonseed and rapeseed output. For sunflowerseed, higher production for Argentina is offset by lower production for Russia. Rapeseed  production is also lowered for Russia”.

“The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Global soybean production is increased 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million, reflecting higher crops for Brazil and the United States but lower output for China. Brazil soybean production is raised 3.0 million tons to 178.0 million on beneficial weather conditions in the Center West during the peak of the growing season. Further, positive early-season conditions and consistent rainfall in the south of Brazil also bolsters yield prospects, especially compared to previous years when the region faced drought. Soybean crush and soybean meal exports are raised for Brazil and the United States, and pairs with higher soybean meal imports for the European Union. EU soybean crush and soybean imports are lowered on higher imported soybean meal supplies. Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are  reduced 0.1 million tons to 187.6 million as higher exports for Brazil are offset by lower U.S. shipments. Global ending stocks are increased 2.0 million tons to 124.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for the United States and Brazil.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)