On January 16th 2025 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2024, a projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026.
The revised 2025 projection for broiler production is for 48,046 million lbs. (22.003 million metric tons) up 3.0 percent from 2024. USDA projected per capita consumption of 103.0 lbs. (46.8 kg.) for 2025, up 1.9 percent from 2024. Exports will attain 6,645 million lbs. (3,020 million metric tons), 0.5 percent below the previous year.
The 2026 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 48,600 million lbs. (22.090 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 103.7 lbs. (47.1 kg). Exports will be 1.1 percent higher compared to 2025 at 6,715 million lbs. (3.052 million metric tons), equivalent to 13.8 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2024
(actual)
|
2025
(projection)
|
2026
(forecast)
|
Difference
2024 to 2025
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,994
|
48,046
|
48,600
|
+2.3
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
101.1
|
103.0
|
103.7
|
+1.9
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
6,680
|
6,645
|
6,715
|
-0.5
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
14.2
|
13.8
|
13.8
|
-2.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,121
|
4,832
|
4,975
|
-5.6
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
13.8
|
13.1
|
13.3
|
-5.1
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
486
|
412
|
400
|
-15.2
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.5
|
8.5
|
8.6
|
-10.5
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16th 2065
The January 16th USDA report updated the projection for the turkey industry during 2025 including annual production of 4,832 million lbs. (2.196 million metric tons), down 5.6 percent from 2024. Consumption in 2025 is projected to be 13.1 lbs. (6.0kg.) per capita, down by 5.3 percent from the previous year. Export volume will attain 412 million lbs. (187,272 metric tons) in 2025. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2025 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.
The 2026 forecast for turkey production is 4,975 million lbs. (2.261 million metric tons) up an optimistic 3.0 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 1.5 percent to 13.3 lbs. (6.1 kg). Exports will be 2.9 percent lower than in 2025 to 400 million lbs. (181,81 metric tons) equivalent to 8.0 percent of production. This implies a reduction in selling prices for whole birds and products
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations.