The most significant impact from the ongoing conflict with Iran will be the fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Most commentators anticipate the potential duration of obstruction to passage to extend to a few weeks. This predictable cessation of free navigation will have profound consequences to energy,
fertilizer and aluminum markets. There is a likelihood that with a prolonged war, Houthi rebels, a surrogate of Iran, may impede transit through the Red Sea at the southern chokepoint of Bab-el-Mandep.
A sharp rise in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel is an immediate result of the conflict and will raise production costs for agriculture and industry. Since China is impacted, this nation may respond with sanctions on imports from the U.S. The postponement of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi presages further trade complications. Bilateral diplomacy may be necessary to moderate the prevailing opinion that the U.S. initiated the war with a deleterious impact on China.
If exports of soybeans and corn from the U.S. are curtailed or cancelled, prices
will fall benefitting livestock producers at the expense of row-crop farmers. Predictably the government will come to their rescue at a cost to taxpayers and adding to the burgeoning national debt.
The quicker that free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the quicker the agricultural economy will return to the predicted pattern of costs, prices and export volumes for 2026.