The recent Producer Price Index (PPI) for February 2026 showed red meat prices rising faster than national wholesale prices. Beef and veal were up 1.8 percent in February compared to 0.7 percent for the PPI with a 13 percent increase over 12 months. It is estimated that the price for live cattle rose 5 percent in February and 20 percent year-over-year compared to chicken that was up 1.1 percent in February but down 7.4 percent from February 2025.
This data is supported by the Datassential Burger Price Index, documenting a 14 percent increase since January 2023. The burger-oriented QSRs, including McDonald’s, Burger King and Wendy’s face a margin squeeze with wholesale prices for ground beef outpacing the menu board.
Jim Emling, CEO of Datassential, stated, “Operators cannot simply pass every cost increase directly to the consumer.” He added, “The data shows how carefully restaurants are managing pricing on high-visibility items like burgers while balancing costs across the rest of the menu.” Burger prices at casual dining restaurants have increased by 16 percent since 2023 compared to full-service restaurants at 12 percent. It is evident that selling a high proportion of beef burgers will impact margins and hence profit. To maintain traffic in a price-sensitive environment, many QSRs are offering value meals for lunch and dinner mealtimes as confirmed by the comments by McDonald’s CEO in the FY 2025 Investors’ call. We can expect that “value burgers” will undergo ‘shinkflation’.
USDA projections in the March 2026 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook show the net availability of beef increasing 4.1 percent for the current year over 2025. Domestic production will be up 226,810 million pounds of RTC, representing a 3.1 percent increase. Net availability from foreign producers will increase by 13.3 percent to 3,280 million pounds. Despite increases in price, beef demand remains robust, putting pressure on restaurants and institutions.
The cost factors contributing to lower margins from beef patties represent an opportunity for chicken. The success of Chick-fil-A and Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen stimulated by the “chicken sandwich wars” of 2025 indicate the acceptability of chicken as a replacement for the traditional beef burger. Now is the time for the broiler industry to develop new chicken-based menu items for QSRs and casual dining restaurants. With respect to filets and breast meat, QSRs will compete with consumers for a range of chicken products available in supermarkets and club stores for home preparation. Accordingly, the industry should actively fund research into innovative products and develop hybrid presentations that can go between the buns, that will be superior in taste and texture to conventional burgers.
The U.S. broiler industry relies on the annual revenue amounting to $4.5 billion from the export of undifferentiated leg quarters representing 14 percent of RTC production. Dark meat at a lower cost compared to the front half of the bird could be blended with white meat to produce a product suitable for QSRs and acceptable to consumers. As has previously been stated, the U.S. cannot rely on continued growth or even stability in export volume and value, given the challenges of competition from Brazil, increased domestic production by 
importing nations, restrictions over avian influenza, tariff disputes and geopolitical considerations These factors together with rising transport costs are making the U.S. less competitive.
The current turbulence in world trade and the evident market for a chicken-based alternative to beef patties offers a win-win solution for both the broiler industry and QSRs.