On March 5th The Kroger Company (KR) posted results for Q4 and FY 2025 ending January 31st 2025. Kroger was two percent below consensus revenue and four percent below expectations for adjusted EBITDA but posted higher guidance for FY 2026.

 Kroger is the second largest retailer of groceries in the U.S. and is a pure supermarket play subject to the pressures of escalation in food costs, logistics and labor and the impact of inflation in common with all national and regional competitors.

For Q4 Kroger reported earnings of $861 million on sales of $34,725 million with a diluted EPS of $1.35. For the corresponding Q4 of FY 2024, Kroger earned $634 million on sales of $34,308 million with a diluted EPS of $0.90.  Comparing Q4 of 2025 with the corresponding quarter of FY 2024, sales were 1.2 percent higher; Gross margin increased from 23.1 percent for Q4 FY 2024 to 23.4 percent for the most recent quarter. Operating margin increased from 2.0 percent in Q4 2024 to 3.6 percent for Q4. For the last quarter in 2025 S&G was lower by $93 million compared to Q4 FY 2024. Improvements were attributed to reducing supply chain costs, improved sourcing and with lower shrink of inventory.

For FY 2025 Kroger reported earnings of $1,016 million on sales of $113,240 million with a diluted EPS of $1.54. For the corresponding FY 2024, Kroger earned $2,685 million on sales of $147,123 million with a diluted EPS of $3.67. During FY 2025 Kroger posted an impairment charge of $2,497 million attributed to the Ocada fulfillment network

In commenting on quarterly results in the press release, Greg Foran the newly appointed CEO stated “Kroger delivered a strong finish to the year, with improving market share trends and solid

sales growth that reflect meaningful progress in strengthening the business. He added

“We have the right foundation in place, and I’m focused on making it even stronger by

delivering more value to customers, improving the customer experience in stores and online,

and driving cost savings and productivity to fund our growth."

In addressing analysts Foran opined “It has been about a month since I started, and I’ve spent that time learning Kroger from the inside out. I’ve been spending time with the leadership team, having one-on-one conversations across the organization and getting out to the stores, distribution centers and manufacturing facilities — and, importantly, also watching how our customers shop”. He added “The team has done excellent work, particularly over the past year, to strengthen the business. And my focus is on how we ‘operationalize’ our strategy to make us even better.”

In discussing future developments, Foran pointed to private Kroger brands that experienced a solid quarter, he stated, “Excluding the impact of egg deflation, sales continue to outpace national brands. Simple Truth and Private Selection again led our growth, with customers continuing to choose these products because they deliver high quality and an affordable price. Innovation continues to be a priority. This year, we introduced more than 1,100 new Our Brands products, up from more than 900 last year. A growing number of these products are focused on health, an area where customer demand is growing, and the Our Brands portfolio is well-positioned to lead.”

The challenge facing Greg Foran will be to stabilize operations and implement envisaged improvements. Kroger is recovering from the turbulence, distractions and expenses associated with the thwarted acquisition of Albertsons. The move away from mechanized Ocada fulfillment centers of which 20 additional were planned will reduce unprofitable future capital commitment.

The Company released adjusted FY 2026 Guidance:- 

• Identical Store Sales growth of 1.0 to 2.0 percent excluding fuel,
• Adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30.
• Adjusted FIFO Operating Profit of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion.
• Capital expenditure of $3,800 to $4,000 million,

Comparable same-store sales for Q4 advanced by 2.4 percent (excluding fuel) compared to Q4 FY 2024; Digital sales were up by 20.0 percent;

On January 31st 2025 Kroger posted total assets of $49,941 million, of which $3,403 million comprised goodwill and intangibles. Long-term debt and lease obligations amounted to $24,405 million.  

The Kroger Company had an intraday market capitalization of $43,440 million on March 6th 2026.  The Company has traded over the past fifty-two weeks in a range of $58.60 to $74.90 with a 50-day moving average of $64.96. KR trades with a forward P/E of 12.8. On March 4th 2026 KR closed at $66.02 pre-release but at 09H00 on March 5th post-release share price rose 6.6 percent to $70.40, closing at $74.00.

Insiders hold 8.8 percent of equity with 79.2 percent held by institutions. On February 13th 5.2 percent of the float was short.

Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 3.5 percent and profit margin 0.7 percent.  The Company generated a return on assets of 5.6 percent and 14.4 percent on equity

The Kroger Company operates approximately 2,750 stores (with 1,240 under the Kroger banner), but with a total of 25 banners in 35 states. In addition Kroger operates 2,270 pharmacies and 1,700 fuel centers, 34 food plants and 45 distribution centers.

The most significant impact from the ongoing conflict with Iran will be the fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Most commentators anticipate the potential duration of obstruction to passage to extend to a few weeks. This predictable cessation of free navigation will have profound consequences to energy, fertilizer and aluminum markets. There is a likelihood that with a prolonged war, Houthi rebels, a surrogate of Iran, may impede transit through the Red Sea at the southern chokepoint of Bab-el-Mandep.    

A sharp rise in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel is an immediate result of the conflict and will raise production costs for agriculture and industry.  Since China is impacted, this nation may respond with sanctions on imports from the U.S.  The postponement of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi presages further trade complications. Bilateral diplomacy may be necessary to moderate the prevailing opinion that the U.S. initiated the war with a deleterious impact on China.

 If exports of soybeans and corn from the U.S. are curtailed or cancelled, prices will fall benefitting livestock producers at the expense of row-crop farmers.  Predictably the government will come to their rescue at a cost to taxpayers and adding to the burgeoning national debt.

The quicker that free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the quicker the agricultural economy will return to the predicted pattern of costs, prices and export volumes for 2026.

Beyond Meat has received a warning letter from the NASDAQ Stock Exchange involving mandatory delisting because the stock price has fallen below $1.00 for more than 30 days.  A final decision on de-listing will be made on August 31st.  To comply with NASDAQ rules, closing bid prices must exceed $1.00 for 10 days. Beyond Meat has been listed since May 2nd 2019 attaining a peak market capitalization of $14 billion and a stock price of $235 in mid-July 2019. 

The company has been unsuccessful in averting a prolonged decline in sales.  On November 10, 2025, Beyond Meat reported on the quarter ending September 27th, posting a loss of $111 million on sales of $70.2 million with a negative EPS of $1.44.  This compares with the corresponding quarter of 2024 with a loss of $27 million on sales of $81 million and a negative EPS of $0.41.  The 13 percent decline in sales indicates lack of demand for the company’s vegetable-based meat substitute despite changes in packaging and pricing.

On March 16th, Beyond Meat, Inc. announced a delay in the publication of Q4 and Fiscal 2025 results.  The company cited “internal control issues related to inventory”.  In the recent company statement, the annual report for FY 2025 should be filed by March 31, 2026, but the company stated that additional delays may be announced due to “material weakness” in internal controls over reporting.  It is anticipated that the company will report a 16 percent decline in FY 2025 revenue from $326 million to $275 million.

Currently Beyond Meat carries $1,320 million in long-term debt with an accumulated deficit of $1,434 million.  In the November 10th Q3 filing, inventory was valued at $110.3 million, representing 40 percent of the projected FY 2025 revenue.

For the past 12 months, BYND shares have fallen from a high of $7.69 to $0.50 with a 50-day moving average of $0.82.  The stock closed on March 17th at $0.75. Thirty-two percent of the float was short on February 27

Beyond Meat has had a market capitalization of $367 million on March 17th.  Twelve-month trailing profit margin was -81 percent with an operating margin of -47 percent.

The statement by the Chairman accompanying the Q3 results represented yet again an unsubstantiated stream of optimism, disconnected from the current financial predicament. This is attributed to lack of demand for a product that is in reality more expensive and inferior to real meat. In addition margins have been impacted by mismanagement and failure to control costs.

The end for this Company is nigh and it will not be pretty for shareholders and investors with no White Knights on the horizon.

On Monday, March 16th, union workers at the JBS Greeley, beef plant launched a strike with wages and working conditions as major issues of contention.  The United Food and Commercial Workers, Local 7, represents close to 4,000 employees at the plant. The Company and the Union have yet to resolve include increased line speeds to 420 cattle per hour, wage rates, safety and reimbursement for protective equipment.

Kim Cordova, president of the UFCW, Local 7, noted, “This is an historic moment in time to see workers come out like this”.  The Union has filed complaints with the National Labor Relations Board alleging changes to working conditions contrary to the existing contract.

Negotiations to establish a new contract have been ongoing since August 2025 without agreement on the major issues of wages and safety.

AgriStats, Inc. has reached settlement in numerous civil cases alleging collusion with broiler integrators and pork packers to the detriment of direct and indirect purchasers of meat and poultry. Terms have not been disclosed. Previously, meat-packer and poultry integrators (Defendants) settled with various Plaintiff classes including in the turkey antitrust litigation and parallel pork and broiler claims.

Agreement for the negotiated settlements have yet to be approved by courts.  End-use consumer Plaintiffs in the broiler case will file for a limited remand from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit.

The announced settlement of civil cases is separate from the federal antitrust case that will proceed to trial on May 4th.

On March 16th 2026 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering actual 2024, a projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026.

The revised 2025 projection for broiler production was almost unchanged at 48,006 million lbs. (23.707 million metric tons) up 2.2 percent from 2024. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.9 lbs. (45.7 kg.) for 2025, up 1.8 percent from 2024. Exports will attain 6,672 million lbs. (3.026 million metric tons), 0.1 percent below the previous year.

The 2026 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 48,700 million lbs. (22,086 million metric tons) up 1.4 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 1.4 percent to 104.3 lbs. (47.3 kg). Exports will be down by 0.1 percent compared to 2025 at 6,670 million lbs. (3.2946670 million metric tons), equivalent to 13.7 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released March 16th 2026

The March 16th USDA report updated the projection for the turkey industry during 2025 including annual production of 4,844 million lbs. (2.197 million metric tons), down 5.4 percent from 2024. Consumption in 2025 is projected to be 13.2 lbs. (6.0kg.) per capita, down by 4.4 percent from the previous year. Export volume will attain 425 million lbs. (192,744 metric tons) in 2025. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2025 and 2026 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, trends in production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.

The 2026 forecast for turkey production is 4,930 million lbs. (2.236 million metric tons) up an optimistic 1.8 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 0.8 percent to 13.3 lbs. (6.0 kg). Exports will be 5.9 percent lower than in 2025 to 400 million lbs. (181,406 metric tons) equivalent to 8.1 percent of production. This implies a reduction in selling prices for whole birds and products

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

On May 3rd Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) posted results for Q2 FY 2026 ending February 15th 2026 exceeding consensus estimates on EPS.

 For Q2 Costco reported earnings of $2,035 million on revenue (sales and membership fees) of $69,597 million with a diluted EPS of $0.84. For the corresponding Q2 of FY 2025, Costco earned $1,788 million on revenue of $63,723 million with a diluted EPS of $4.02. Comparing Q2 of 2026 with the corresponding quarter of FY 2025, sales were 9.2 percent higher; Gross margin increased from 10.8 percent for Q2 FY 2025 to 11.2 percent for the most recent quarter. Operating margin increased from 8.9 percent in Q2 2025 to 9.0 percent for Q2 FY 2026.

Revenue YTD for 2026 was $136,924 up 8.8 percent over the corresponding 24-week period in 2025. Adjusted comparable sales for the 26 weeks ending March 1st were 6.4 percent for the entire Company, with the U.S. at 6.1; Canada at 8.2 and Other International at 6.4 percent. Digital sales were up by 21.3 percent. Overall comparable same-store sales were up 6.7 percent attributed to increases of 3.1 percent in traffic and 3.5 percent in ticket value.

Issues reviewed at the Investors’ Call included the impact and legality of erratic and unpredictable tariffs. According to Ron Vachris CEO, one third of the 4,000 SKUs are imported. Costco management will do all possible to restrain price increases and to possibly reimburse customers should this be practical or achievable. The Company is upgrading checkout procedures to enhance customer satisfaction.

Worldwide Costco posted an 89.7 percent membership renewal rate and a 4.8 percent increase in total membership to 82.1 million.

On February 15th 2026 Costco posted total assets of $83,639 million. Long-term debt and lease obligations amounted to $10,789 million.  

Costco had an intraday market capitalization of $442,520 million on March 11th 2026.  The Company has traded over the past fifty-two weeks over a range of $844.06 to $1,067.08 with a 50-day moving average of $967.08. COST trades with a forward P/E of 49.0. On March 3rd 2026 COST closed at $1,006.71 pre-release but traded at a low of $958.03 at noon post-release recovering to $990.48 at the close on March 11th.

Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 3.7 percent and profit margin 3.0 percent.  The Company generated a return on assets of 8.7 percent and 29.7 percent on equity

Costco operates 924 warehouses with 624 in the U.S., 114 in Canada, 42 in Mexico and the remainder in 11 nations. Expansion plans are for 30 additional warehouses worldwide annually over the proximal five years.

Following release of proposed legislation entitled the Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act, The Meat Institute reacted characterizing the proposal “as absurd”.  Julie Anna Potts, CEO of the organization, observes that the proposal championed by Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader would have negligible impact on retail meat price but would disrupt the industry.

If the packers of beef are acting in collusion to the detriment of feeders why are they losing money on every head? Mack Graves cites The Beef Industry Profit Tracker that documented a progressive loss for packers over 2024 through 2026 (to date) ranging from $75 to $205 per head. These figures are consistent with quarterly financial reports posted by Tyson Foods Inc. In contrast cow/calf operators have benefitted from increased margins ($114 to $1,123 per head) and the Feeders, intermediates in the production chain, ranged from a positive margin of $114 to $157 per head)

It is obvious to politicians and consumers alike that the price of red meat is unacceptably high.  This is due to a disparity between supply and demand.  Cattle inventories are at their lowest level for seven decades, attributed to drought, cold winters and financial pressures on ranchers and feedlot operators.  Importation has been curtailed by inappropriate and erratic imposition of tariffs. Availability has been impacted more recently by intermittent and now prolonged closures of the Southern border as a result of outbreaks of New World screwworm in Mexico. 

Forcing the major red meat packers to divest operations would disrupt the supply chain, inhibit investment and expansion and would be antithetical to efficiency and low cost.  Mandating that the major producers  fragment their businesses would deny packers the economies of scale and indirectly lead to even higher prices. When politicians and bureaucrats contrive to “fix” a problem, unintended consequences emerge, requiring reversals and a restoration to the status quo.  The proposed break-up of red-meat processors would represent a slippery slope ultimately impacting broiler integrations.

In a recent statement, the National Farmers Union praised the House Committee on Agriculture in marking-up The Farm, Food and National Security Act of 2026.

NFU president Rob Larew noted, “We recognize the hard work that went into this mark-up.  Bipartisan progress in today’s Congress is not insignificant, and we are grateful to the members who engaged seriously with the challenges facing family agriculture.”  Notwithstanding the achievement, enactment of a Farm Bill will require considerable work in both chambers of Congress with the inevitable pressure exerted by lobbyists representing agricultural organizations. 

The proposed Farm bill has been delayed for over a year by bipartisan differences, especially with respect to food benefits and the required magnitude of support for farmers who have been impacted by an erratic tariff policy reflecting a lack of a comprehensive and progressive economic program.

Corporate consolidation in the red meat sector will also be contentious as conflicting opinions on the reasons for escalation in the price of red meat swirl around both House and Senate.

Larew concluded the NFU statement by urging a concerted effort to resolve differences, stating, “The challenges facing family farmers and ranchers are urgent, and the final Farm Bill must reflect that reality.”

Activist Watch Weekly, prepared by Will Coggin of the Berman Group has reported that major UK brands including KFC, Nando’s and Popeye’s have withdrawn from the “Better Chicken Commitment”.

The obligations implicit in the various levels of the “Better Chicken Commitment” are antithetical to sustainability and have increased the cost of product.  There is a growing realization that consumers are opting for lower cost of raw and prepared chicken and now place less emphasis on welfare in the purchase decision.

Over the past decade, welfare organizations including Humane World, Mercy for Animals, the SPCA and the Humane League have individually or collectively coerced retailers, distributors of branded eggs, chicken, turkey and derived products to accept onerous and scientifically indefensible welfare standards.  These organizations are less interested in flock welfare than they are in ultimately destroying all intensive livestock production in pursuit of a vegan agenda. 

Although a number of producers have modified housing and production practices to conform to the lowest tier of the “Better Chicken Commitment”, the realities of successive escalation in standards are now apparent and the marketing benefit from certification is now in question.

The Center for the Environment and Welfare, supported by the food industry has created a new website www.environmentandwelfare.com that posts reports on the environmental impact and activities of welfare organizations and pending legislation.

Despite the prevailing policy of the current Administration to reject participation in international organizations, the U.S. Agriculture Coalition for WTO Reform has urged continued membership. The Coalition includes the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council (USAPEEC), the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) and other organizations representing agricultural commodities.

As with many international organizations, required changes require prolonged discussion, review and in some cases blatant obstruction as is the situation with the WTO comprising 164 member countries. Notwithstanding obstacles, the United States Trade Representative, Ambassador Jamieson Greer, has made some progress through bilateral workarounds “superseding WTO commitments including a lift of trade barriers that are in violation of WTO rules”.  Areas of concern include unnecessary phytosanitary requirements and delayed registration of establishments.

The Coalition considers that an active U.S. involvement in the WTO can support bilateral trade agreements that are favored by the President. The NPPC noted that, “U.S. engagement with the leadership among the WTO membership is essential to U.S. agricultural interests.”

In the letter addressed to the USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, the Coalition urges support for the WTO as “The agreement provides more predictable market access and results in reduced trade distortions in agricultural markets.”

U.S. District Judge, John R. Tunheim, has ruled that the bench trial of the action brought by the Federal Trade Commission and six states will begin on May 4th.  The Defendant, AgriStats had argued that proceeding with the trial before a scheduled civil antitrust lawsuit would be prejudicial and would violate the Seventh Amendment rights of the company.  This contention was rejected by Judge Tunheim based on a Supreme Court precedent.  The presiding judge also invoked the Sherman Antitrust Act requiring courts to proceed “as soon as possible in government enforcement actions” and that to delay “would not serve the interest of justice”.

 In United States v. AgriStats, the FTC and the states of California, North Carolina, Tennessee, Minnesota, Texas and Utah allege that the company “engaged in an unlawful information-sharing conspiracy with major broiler, chicken, turkey and pork processors”.

To date, the Co-Defendants represented by broiler and turkey integrators and pork packers have settled with Plaintiffs leaving AgriStats as the only Defendant.

According to Brooke Rollins, Secretary of the USDA, the irradiation plant to propagate sterile male New World screwworm Cochliomyia hominivorax (NWS) flies will be located once again on the Moore Airbase with a projected ultimate completion date in November 2027.  Initially, the plant will produce 100 million sterile flies each week. The capacity will subsequently be expanded to achieve an output of 300 million sterile flies weekly.  USDA produces 100 million sterile flies per week at a facility in Panama for dispersal in affected areas in Mexico.  In the short term, USDA will provide $21 million to renovate and convert an existing irradiation facility designed to suppress fruit flies to NWS and to double production. This facility will be operated by the Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm (COPEG)  and will commence production during the summer of 2026.

The Moore Airbase plant will be designed and erected by the Army Corp of Engineers and will allow the U.S. to be independent of supplies of sterile male screw worm flies from Central America and Mexico.

Although screw worm infestation was suppressed to the point of eradication in the U.S. by 1966 through dispersal of sterile male flies and from North America extending from the Panama Canal to the Southern U.S. border by the late 1990s.

Nature is resilient and infestation emerged in Guatemala in 2024 and spread to Mexico. This represents a threat to U.S. livestock and wildlife. The USDA-ERS estimate that the emergence of NWS in Texas would have cost the beef industry $1.9 billion in 2024.

The reemergence of New World screwworm indicates the need for widescale deployment of sterile male NWS flies. This will require close cooperation with neighboring nations to detect and eradicate the pest. Reintroduction into “cleared” regions is inevitable requiring surveillance and control over movement of livestock. Collectively regulators in Guatemala and Mexico missed the infestation and allowed spread by both movement of cattle and migration of flies

The two decades-long litigation over alleged pollution by major broiler integrators in the Illinois River watershed has led to preliminary settlements that have yet to be approved.  To date, Peterson Farms, George’s, Inc., Tyson Foods, Inc. and Cargill, Inc. have agreed to settle with the State Attorney General, Gentner Drummond. Oklahoma has yet to negotiate a settlement with Cal-Maine Foods, an egg producer and Simmons Foods, a broiler integrator.

U.S. Federal District Judge Gregory. Frizzell has raised issues with the proposed settlement relating to Oklahoma v. Tyson Foods, Inc. over long-term implications for disposal of waste. Litter application by existing contractors would be subject to declining increments down to 20 percent of present volume over five succeeding years. The possibility of additional contractors and increased volumes of production in the watershed could negate the beneficial environmental effects of the settlement. If Judge Frizzell refuses to sanction the settlement agreements the co-defendants have signaled their intention to resort to the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals

Blayne Arthur the Secretary of the Oklahoma State Department of Agriculture and Jeff Starling Secretary of the Department of Energy and Environment have questioned the proposed settlement. Negotiations were initiated in 2005 by then Attorney General Drew Edmonds after a federal judge ruled that the eleven poultry companies were responsible for phosphorus pollution in the Illinois river watershed.  The Secretaries have urged scrutiny of the proposed settlements they characterize as “imbalanced”.  In their comments, the Secretaries consider that the settlement would result in a “fragmented regulatory landscape in which companies competing in the same market operate under dramatically different rules”.  The proposed settlement also allows the Oklahoma Attorney General, to decide on payments without recourse to the Legislature.

Disposal of poultry waste previously applied to agricultural land will be subject to increased regulation given the potential for eutrophication from phosphorus runoff into waterways suggesting alternative methods of disposal or pre-treatment before application.

Expedient resolution of the impasse is important since Tyson Foods will not place chicks with contractors operating in the Illinois River watershed until a settlement is finalized.

Groups representing ranchers including the New Civil Liberties Alliance and R-Calf USA are embroiled in litigation with the USDA over electronic identification (EID) ear tags for cattle to be transported over state lines.  Resistance to adoption has persisted for a number of years since USDA required EID ear tags in place of less expensive visual tags. The argument that EID tags are a financial burden should be viewed against the 2026 estimated margin of $1,123 per head   accruing to cow/calf ranchers as estimated by the Beef Industry Profit Tracker.

The USDA maintains that the EID tags are necessary to reduce errors in livestock tracking, critical to control of disease.  This is especially important given the emergence of New World screwworm infestation in Mexico. Without a durable ID and tracking system the export market might be placed in jeopardy in the event of an extensive disease outbreak.

Essentially EID tags reflect progress in the control of livestock disease and are superior in preventing fraud and illegality that could occur with the visual-only tags.

The ear tag issue has become a question of “rights” representing opposition to state and federal mandates and regulations that are intended to improve livestock and human health.  The growing “rights” movement is exemplified by passage of hastily enacted state laws and local ordinances allowing the distribution of raw milk, parental involvement in school curriculums and vaccination.

In a move to reduce losses and facing the reality of a prolonged shortage of slaughter stock, Tyson Foods commenced layoffs in January 2026 at the Lexington, NE. beef plant that has been shuttered.

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln has calculated that closing the Lexington plant would have an annual state-wide impact of $3.3 billion.  The plant had a nominal capacity of 5,000 head per day, representing close to five percent of total throughput.  The plant closure will result in a loss of 3,000 jobs in a community of 11,000 suggesting a serious disruption in the affected town and surrounding Dawson County.

Over the past three years, beef packers have experienced losses extending from $75 per head in 2024 to $205 per head predicted for 2026. It is a matter of record that Tyson Foods is attempting to rationalize their beef business by ‘right-sizing” a euphemism for terminating unprofitable plants and facilities. For Q1 FY 2026 their Beef Segment posted a GAAP loss of $319 million on sales of $5,771. In contrast the Chicken Segment generated an operating profit of $450 on sales of $4,212 million.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced in mid-March that $1.6 million would be awarded to the Nebraska Department of Labor for training services and expenses involved in reemployment for displaced workers. Funding was provided through the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act of 2014.

Tyson had every opportunity to predict the decrease in the number of animals available and could have initiated contingency plans dictated by the adverse operating environment. It is not unreasonable to expect that Tyson Foods should be responsible for relocation of employees, retraining and other direct expenses incurred by terminated employees and the State of Nebraska. 

Given the beef cycle and the reduction in the cow-calf herd, it will be three years before there is any increase in availability of slaughter stock and the impact of the multi-year progressive decline in the breeding herd due to drought, competition from imports and inflation

During the week ending March 12th, four cases of HPAI were recorded in Kings County, NY (Borough of Brooklyn) and two in adjoining Queens County, (Borough of Queens).  In addition, a live bird market yielded HPAI in Orange County, FL. These isolations are a function of the intensity of surveillance.

Live bird markets serve as an indicator of HPAI in supply flocks and are essentially end points in the chain of infection extending from migratory birds through small commercial flock to their ultimate commercial destination.

The question arises as to the number and extent of infected supply flocks since these are as yet unidentified representing a danger of extension to commercial broiler, egg and turkey farms. Are federal authorities following a program of traceback?  Are isolations from live bird markets a reflection of the extent of infection in this segment of U.S. poultry production? The USDA has yet to release a definitive epidemiological study on the live bird market system.

At the end of the day, one may question the desirability or even the necessity of live bird markets given the availability of processed chicken from plants inspected by the USDA and subject to a cold chain.  Perpetuation of an anachronistic system of selling live and storefront-slaughtered poultry to a small, defined cohort of consumers represents a danger not only to the poultry industry but also to the patrons of these markets.  Transmission of zoonotic strains of avian influenza, including H9N2; H3N8 and H5N1 in China, Viet Nam and other Asian nations, confirm the potential for zoonotic infection.

The impact of the ongoing avian influenza epornitic is exemplified by losses during the first quarter of 2026.  To date, depopulations in 2026 have included 2.4 million egg production pullets, 14.3 million laying hens, 0.9 million turkeys and 1.2 million broilers including a few parent flocks.

Live bird markets are unnecessary, represent a danger to commercial poultry production and are a potential human health hazard.